November 5, 2023
Summary A zonal flow continues across the eastern Pacific and into north America. Moisture laden Pacific storms are caught up in this flow and continue to move into the Pacific Northwest. The main trough of low pressure will dig further south Monday, spreading rain over northern California with lighter precipitation spreading into central California later Monday and into Tuesday morning. Precipitation will become likely from Fresno County northward from late Monday afternoon and Monday night. There is also a reasonable chance of light showers spreading into the south valley Monday night through Tuesday morning. The dynamics of this system will be pretty weak this far south, however upper air support seems strong enough to spread light showers as far as the Kern/Tulare County line with a slight chance further south. The trough will drop into southern California Tuesday, allowing a ridge of upper level high pressure to build in from the west. This now appears to be the only chance of rain we’ll see for a while. It had appeared another system would move through late Friday and early Saturday. Models are backing off on that possibility and now show a ridge of upper level high pressure building in from the west for dry weather Friday and into the first few days of next week.
Forecast Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through tonight. Increasing cloudiness Monday with showers spreading as far south as Fresno County by early evening. Showers spreading over the south valley Monday night through Tuesday morning. Partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon and night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Sunday.
Temperatures
| Madera 79/48/75/50/66 | Reedley 80/48/75/50/67 | Dinuba 78/48/74/50/65 |
| Porterville 81/47/76/51/67 | Lindsay 80/48/74/49/66 | Delano 81/50/74/51/67 |
| Bakersfield 81/55/75/58/66 | Taft 77/55/73/54/62 | Arvin 82/51/75/52/67 |
| Lamont 81/52/76/51/66 | Pixley 79/50/76/50/66 | Tulare 78/48/73/50/67 |
| Woodlake 79/49/74/50/66 | Hanford 79/49/74/51/67 | Orosi 78/47/74/49/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday Mostly clear 40/66 | Thursday Mostly clear 38/68 | Friday Mostly clear 39/68 | Saturday Mostly clear 36/70 | Sunday Partly cloudy 37/74 |
Two Week Outlook: November 22 through November 16 This model shows the storm track moving further south with a reasonable chance of precipitation during this period. Temperatures will be fairly close to average.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas t o southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds through tonight will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions. By Monday afternoon winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph. winds Monday night and Tuesday will continue to be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 20 mph. winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be generally at or less than 10 mph and variable in nature.
Rain Discussion. The chance of rain in Merced County will increase by midday Monday then will spread as far south as Fresno County by Monday afternoon with light showers spreading into the south valley Monday night and Tuesday morning. Dry weather will return Tuesday afternoon and continue through the remainder of the week. rainfall amounts in Madera and Merced Counties should range between .15 and.25. a tenth or two seems plausible for Fresno County and generally less than ..10 in Tulare, Kings, and Kern Counties. Models had shown another system moving in later in the week. models this morning are now showing dry weather.
Frost Discussion: A more seasonal air mass will overspread the valley Tuesday. Mid 30s to lower 40s are possible Wednesday through Sunday.. low lying river bottoms could reach down into the lower 30s, otherwise above freezing conditions will continue. Models both medium and longer range continue to show a mild weather pattern.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Mid 30s to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .73, Parlier, .70, Arvin .91, Delano .73.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier *, Arvin 64, Delano 60 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 70/45, Record Temperatures: 90/33
Heating Degree Days Season. 69 -45 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: total for Fresno T, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 60.5 +2.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 20 Arvin, 17 Belridge, 15 Shafter, 19 Stratford, 16 Delano 19, Porterville, 0. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:26. Sunset, 4:58. hours of daylight, 10:31
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather: H
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 81 / 50 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 82 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 81 / 54 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 82 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 83 / 50 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 80 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 80 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 81 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.19 23 0.27 33 0.83 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.42 65 0.31 48 0.65 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.16 21 0.37 48 0.77 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.02 4 0.17 32 0.53 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 T 0 0.14 21 0.66 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 T 0 0.53 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.30 91 0.27 82 0.33 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 47 0.01 3 0.38 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.13 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 31 0.24 33 0.72 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.05 8 0.65 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.01 2 0.66 13.32
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Next report: November 6/am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.