Summary: A flat zone of upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific Ocean off shore and extends inland over California and the Great Basin. A low center is in the Gulf of Alaska and will sag southward to a position several hundred miles west of the California/Oregon border by Monday morning. It will then settle into a position several hundred miles off the central coast by Tuesday. This storm continues to be a teaser from a forecast perspective. The GFS model continues to keep this system off shore while others place it closer to the coast, resulting in an increased chance of significant precipitation. blended models have staked out a position nearer the coast for the past several days while the GFS model, one of the main medium range models indicates precipitation will remain off shore until Friday. Since the majority consensus leans towards the wetter possibility, we’ll reflect that in the forecast. Quantitative precipitation estimates in blended models forecast an inch and a third at Porterville from Wednesday night through Saturday. After Saturday, upper level high pressure will build along the coast for several days of dry weather.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds through Monday. partly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday night. A chance of rain Wednesday, generally starting in the afternoon. Rain at times likely Thursday through Friday night. A chance of showers Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 37/75/40/74 | Reedley 38/76/42/75 | Dinuba 37/73/40/74 | |
| Porterville 38/75/39/76 | Lindsay 36/74/39/76 | Delano 38/76/41/77 | |
| Bakersfield 43/77/46/77 | Taft 50/75/52/74 | Arvin 41/76/42/77 | |
| Lamont 40/77/43/77 | Pixley 39/76/43/75 | Tulare 36/73/39/74 | |
| Woodlake 37/74/39/75 | Hanford 38/75/41/75 | Orosi 37/74/39/75 | |
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday. From late Tuesday night through Thursday, there will be a chance of gusty downslope winds off of the Tehachapis. For now, there’s roughly a 30% chance of winds out of the east or southeast in excess of 40 mph. Higher velocities are possible. For now, the eventual placement of the off shore system will play a major role in determining whether or not there will be a wind event. Winds in at least the 15 to 20 mph range are possible Wednesday through Thursday up and down the valley.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday night. The chance of rain will begin to increase Wednesday, especially during the second half of the day. Rain will be likely at times Wednesday night through Friday with a good chance of showers Friday night and a chance of showers Saturday. The weather computer models indicate rain could tally up to an inch or more north of Kern County generally east of Highway 99. Rain shadows are expected to develop along the west side and in Kern County with between .25 to .33 expected in western Fresno and Kings Counties and possibly upwards of .25 in the valley portion of Kern County. Expect dry weather Saturday and for several days thereafter.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the next seven days. The air mass coming in late next week and through the following weekend is somewhat cooler, but no significant frost threat is seen at this time.
Next report: November 12/morning