November 11, 2023
Summary A ridge of upper level high pressure is currently moving in from the west. The high will strengthen as we head into Sunday and Sunday night, bringing with it a decent warming trend. Readings will hover near the 70 degree mark this afternoon, climbing into the mid to upper 70s by Sunday afternoon. On Monday, a trough of low pressure will begin to sink southward from the Gulf of Alaska. The trough will split off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with one section morphing into a separate low pressure system that will park several hundred miles off the northern California coast by Monday. this system will stall several hundred miles off the central California coast Tuesday then remain stationary from Wednesday through Friday, possibly moving inland through southern California next Saturday. Models are still at war with each other on how far this system will stall. If it stalls too far off shore, rain will hold off until almost Friday. However, most models this morning indicate it will be close enough to the central coast for precipitation to move inland. Potential amounts of precipitation also hinge on the ultimate placement of this system. Most models, however are projecting amounts from .50 to one inch north of Kern County. A strong southwesterly wind flow aloft will no doubt result in rain shadows in the southern and western sides of the valley. Since this flow will move in perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada, lift should mean a heavy precipitation event for mountain areas. By late next weekend, upper level high pressure will build from southwest to northeast and ridge into the Pacific Northwest and northern Canada while a cold low drops into the middle of the country. This pattern would block any cold air masses from moving into California. So, it appears we will remain frost free for the time being.
Forecast Mostly clear with occasional high clouds through Sunday night. Partly cloudy Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. Mostly cloudy Wednesday with a chance of rain Wednesday night. Rain likely at times Thursday through Friday. Showers likely Friday night with a chance of showers Saturday.
Temperatures
| Madera 70/38/75/42/76 | Reedley 71/38/76/42/75 | Dinuba 69/37/75/41/75 |
| Porterville 70/37/76/41/73 | Lindsay 71/37/76/41/75 | Delano 71/38/74/42/75 |
| Bakersfield 71/42/78/48/77 | Taft 65/48/74/51/72 | Arvin 71/40/76/43/76 |
| Lamont 71/41/76/44/76 | Pixley 70/38/75/42/75 | Tulare 69/37/73/41/74 |
| Woodlake 69/36/73/40/73 | Hanford 70/38/74/40/73 | Orosi 69/36/73/40/73 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Increasing clouds 41/73 | Wednesday PM rain possible 49/71 | Thursday Rain likely 49/68 | Friday Rain likely 52/67 | Saturday Showers likely 53/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 17 through November 23 This model continues to show an active pattern for central California with the likelihood of precipitation. a major winter storm may come on shore between the 15 and the 18. Temperatures are expected to be below average.
October: This model indicates that October will be marginally warmer than average. It also points to above average precipitation from Texas t o southern California. Central California will have a better than even chance of above average precipitation.
October, November, December This model shows a marginal chance of above average temperatures over the next 90 days. There is no indication of above or below average precipitation through December. We will be dealing with a strong El Nino this winter. Whether or not that translates into abundant rainfall for central California remains to be seen.
Wind Discussion Winds will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. there is still a chance, although fairly low, of gusty winds mainly in the Kern County portion of the valley floor. latest surface models show a surface low several hundred miles off the central coast Wednesday and Thursday. Since the placement of the low will be due west of us, the area of the valley with the highest risk will be the south and southwest corner of the valley. If the low was off the northern coast rather than the central coast, the risk factor would be higher. Since the various players have yet to be determined, we’ll just keep a low chance of gusty winds in the forecast for Kern County for late Tuesday night through Thursday
Rain Discussion. Dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Models are in better agreement this morning on possible precipitation and amounts. Since this will be a slow-moving event, there will be a chance of rain as early as Wednesday, however it still may be Thursday through Friday before the active portion of the storm moves inland. Showers may last all the way into Saturday as the storm weakens and moves into southern California. It still appears a good .50 to one inch of precipitation is possible, especially north of Kern County. We will be dealing with rain shadows with this event, so lesser amounts can be expected along the west side and in the southern portion of Kern County. Dry weather will return sometime next weekend and will last for several days thereafter.
Frost Discussion: The chance of below freezing temperatures after the e20th of November seems much less likely now. The latest GFS model shows a high building along the Pacific coast, ridging into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, driving the cold air mass into the middle of the country with a bubble of warm high pressure above California. In the meantime, above freezing temperatures will prevail for the next week and for at least the next several days thereafter.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .70, Parlier, .63, Arvin .66, Delano .65.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 61, Arvin 63, Delano 61 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44, Record Temperatures: 84/31
Heating Degree Days Season. 106 -62 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .09, Monthly .09
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 59.4 +2.4 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 23 Arvin, 19 Belridge, 15 Shafter, 20 Stratford, 19 Delano 19, Porterville, NA. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:34. Sunset, 4:52. hours of daylight, 10:20
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 71 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.26 25 1.24 119 1.04 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.52 65 1.19 149 0.80 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.51 54 0.99 105 0.94 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.23 35 0.50 76 0.66 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 11 0.66 83 0.80 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.01 2 0.59 94 0.63 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.31 76 0.66 161 0.41 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 42 0.46 107 0.43 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 T 0 0.02 14 0.14 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 24 1.46 162 0.90 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.99 121 0.82 13.32
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Next report: November 11/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.