November 12, 2023
Summary: The center of circulation of a upper level high pressure is centered over Utah and northern Arizona this morning while a developing low pressure system is off the British Columbia coast and is moving southward. By Monday, the low will have dropped to a position around 700 miles west of the California/Oregon border. By Tuesday night it will be several hundred miles off the central coast. The low is forecast to remain fairly stationary from Wednesday through Friday. The counterclockwise circulation around this storm is forecast to pinwheel bands of precipitation into California beginning sometime Wednesday, lasting through Friday. The GFS model continues to be the outlier. This model doesn’t show precipitation moving in untl Friday with showers continuing into Saturday as the low weakens and moves through southern California. By Sunday, a large ridge of upper level high pressure will be building northward over the Pacific coast. The high will then flatten out, returning the storm track to the Pacific Northwest beginning tomorrow.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies with occasional cloudiness through Monday night. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night. A chance of rain Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon. Rain likely at times Wednesday night through Friday. A chance of showers Friday night and Saturday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday morning. Becoming mostly clear Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures
| Madera 75/42/76/42/76 | Reedley 77/43/76/42/77 | Dinuba 75/41/75/42/74 |
| Porterville 77/41/78/42/77 | Lindsay 77/39/76/41/75 | Delano 78/43/78/42/77 |
| Bakersfield 79/51/79/45/78 | Taft 76/54/76/52/74 | Arvin 79/45/78/45/78 |
| Lamont 78/44/77/44/78 | Pixley 77/42/76/42/77 | Tulare 75/40/74/41/74 |
| Woodlake 76/39/76/40/75 | Hanford 77/41/75/41/75 | Orosi 75/39/75/40/74 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday PM rain possible 47/76 | Thursday Rain likely 51/74 | Friday Rain likely 50/70 | Saturday Chance of showers 47/67 | Sunday Partly cloudy 42/66 |
Two Week Outlook: November 19 through November 26 This model indicates above average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and northern California with a lesser chance of rain for central and southern California. Temperatures are predicted to be pretty average.
November: This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.
November, December, January: This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Monday night. Winds Tuesday will become out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Winds Wednesday may be increasingly gusty out of the southeast in the extreme south valley, generally in the 15 to 30 mph range with stronger gusts near the base of the mountains and 10 to 20 mph elsewhere.
Rain Discussion. Even at this late date, models are still in disagreement about the timing and amount of precipitation for central California. Like yesterday, most show an increasing chance of rain beginning Wednesday, continuing on and off through Friday. One model insists on placing the center of the low too far to the west to allow precipitation into California until Friday. Rainfall amounts, on most models, is substantial, generally between .50 to one inch from Porterville northward along the east side with possibly as much as an inch and a half from Merced north. Considerably lesser amounts are expected in the extreme south valley and on the west side. Dry weather will return by Saturday night, continuing well into the following week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through the following week. currently, there’s nothing on models to suggest a particularly cold pattern on the horizon.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .68, Parlier, .62, Arvin .65, Delano .64.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 60, Arvin 63, Delano 61 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 66/43, Record Temperatures: 81/29
Heating Degree Days Season. 116 -62 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .09, Monthly .09
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 59.0 +2.1 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 23 Arvin, 19 Belridge, 15 Shafter, 20 Stratford, 19 Delano 19, Porterville, NA. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:35. Sunset, 4:51. hours of daylight, 10:18
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 72 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 72 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 70 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 72 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 73 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 69 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 71 / 41 / T /
Rainfall stats: seas % L.Y % ave. s.a.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.26 23 1.24 111 1.12 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.52 60 1.19 138 0.86 12.27
MERCED 0.00 0.51 51 0.99 99 1.00 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.23 32 0.50 70 0.71 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 11 0.66 78 0.85 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.01 1 0.59 88 0.67 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.31 70 0.66 150 0.44 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 40 0.46 102 0.45 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 T 0 0.02 13 0.15 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 23 1.46 152 0.96 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 T 0 0.71 86 0.83 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.99 111 0.89 13.32
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Next report: November 13/am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.