November 16, 2023
Summary: The light showers yesterday and last night dropped scant amounts. Amounts ranged from a trace upwards to .10 on the valley floor. even over the mountain areas, most locations only picked up a quarter of an inch or so. Satellite imagery is clearly showing a dry slot which will move inland today into Friday. Models indicate the parent low will finally move inland Friday night and Saturday with a chance of showers lasting well into Saturday night. upper level high pressure off shore will build inland beginning Sunday for what promises to be a dry stretch of weather with patchy fog during the later night and morning hours. Medium range models indicate a blocking pattern until roughly November 24 when a weak low slides southward into the interior western US. This will be followed by another high towards the end of the month which will continue the dry pattern along with average temperatures.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness today and tonight with a chance of showers through Friday. Periods of rain Friday night through Saturday evening. A chance of showers Saturday night. becoming partly cloudy Sunday through Monday morning… mostly clear Tuesday through Thursday.
Temperatures
| Madera 73/44/71/52/69 | Reedley 74/45/70/53/68 | Dinuba 72/47/70/51/68 |
| Porterville 74/47/71/53/68 | Lindsay 73/47/70/50/67 | Delano 74/47/76/49/74 |
| Bakersfield 75/51/75/54/71 | Taft 71/53/71/57/65 | Arvin 76/50/72/53/68 |
| Lamont 75/50/71/51/70 | Pixley 73/49/70/52/67 | Tulare 72/47/71/51/68 |
| Woodlake 72/48/71/50/69 | Hanford 72/47/71/51/68 | Orosi 72/47/70/51/68 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday Partly cloudy 45/69 | Monday Patchy fog 39/64 | Tuesday Mostly clear 37/67 | Wednesday Mostly clear 37/70 | Thursday Mostly clear 37/69 |
Two Week Outlook: November 22 through November 28 This model shows a dominant ridge of upper level high pressure over the western one third of the US. This favors above average temperatures during this time frame along with dry conditions.
November: This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.
November, December, January: This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Gusts to near 20 mph are possible, especially near showers through Saturday. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 25.
Rain Discussion. Satellite imagery this morning depicts a sizable gap between batches of energy rotating counterclockwise around the center of the low which is roughly 400 miles off shore. The low will finally start to track eastward Friday and Saturday. As it does, periods of rain will rotate overhead. The best chance of a more persistent rainfall will be Saturday through Saturday evening as the low opens into a trough and moves through central California. The chance of showers will continue Saturday night with dry weather Sunday and for several days thereafter. Rainfall amounts as of 5:30 were Delano and Porterville .01, Bakersfield a trace, Kettleman City .02, Fresno .03, Madera .05, Merced .01, Tulare .03. Rainfall from this point on will hopefully range from .25 to .33 at most locations. Due to the spotty nature of the precipitation, amounts will vary widely.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through the following week. currently, there’s nothing on models to suggest a particularly cold pattern on the horizon.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .56, Parlier, .54, Arvin .74, Delano .58.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 59, Arvin 61, Delano 58
Average Temperatures: 65/42, Record Temperatures: 81/27
Heating Degree Days Season. 148 -78 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .11, Monthly .11
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 58.6 +2.6 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 80 Arvin, 68 Belridge, 67 Shafter, 63 Stratford, 78 Delano 67. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:39. Sunset, 4:42 hours of daylight, 10:13
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 54 / 0.01 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 72 / 53 / 0.04 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 72 / 54 / 0.02 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 71 / 50 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 68 / 51 / 0.02 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 82 / 59 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 71 / 53 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 73 / 51 / 0.01 /
24hr seas. % L.Y % S.A. 365
STOCKTON 0.01 0.27 21 1.24 97 1.28 13.45
MODESTO T 0.52 53 1.19 121 0.98 12.27
MERCED T 0.51 46 0.99 88 1.12 11.80
MADERA T 0.23 28 0.50 60 0.83 10.79
FRESNO T 0.09 9 0.66 69 0.96 10.99
HANFORD T 0.01 1 0.59 79 0.75 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 0.31 61 0.66 129 0.51 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.18 37 0.46 94 0.49 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 T 0 0.02 13 0.16 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 20 1.46 132 1.11 12.58
PASO ROBLES T T 0 0.71 76 0.93 12.15
SANTA MARIA T T 0 0.99 96 1.03 13.32
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Next report: November 16/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.