November 17, 2023
Summary: For the past four days, a cut off low has been situated about 400 miles to our west. As a result, precipitation has also remained largely off shore. That will begin to change later this afternoon as the low opens up into a trough then moves eastward towards the California coast. Showers will begin to spread inland over the west side of the valley later this afternoon and will spread over the remainder of the valley tonight. This system will be a slow mover so precipitation can be expected through Saturday night and possibly into Sunday morning. upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the west Sunday night and Monday, returning us to a dry weather pattern. assuming we receive enough precipitation to wet the ground, valley fog will become a problem Monday morning and on through the week. by Tuesday, the high will cover the western one-third of the US with a ridge all the way into British Columbia. A weak trough will move through Thursday and Thursday night, but no active weather is anticipated.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness today with a slight chance of showers before midafternoon. Showers becoming likely later this afternoon, continuing tonight through Saturday night. showers tapering off Saturday night. mostly cloudy Sunday morning. becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon, mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday. Partly cloudy Thanksgiving Day through Friday.
Temperatures
| Madera 75/52/70/51/64 | Reedley 76/51/71/51/65 | Dinuba 74/53/69/50/65 |
| Porterville 77/54/70/49/65 | Lindsay 76/52/70/51/65 | Delano 75/51/69/48/61 |
| Bakersfield 79/57/72/65/55 | Taft 73/56/69/53/61 | Arvin 78/53/71/57/65 |
| Lamont 79/53/71/53/63 | Pixley 74/53/69/49/61 | Tulare 73/51/69/48/62 |
| Woodlake 74/51/68/47/62 | Hanford 75/54/68/50/65 | Orosi 74/50/69/48/64 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Patchy fog/mostly clear 37/62 | Tuesday Patchy fog/mostly clear 37/65 | Wednesday Patchy fog/mostly clear 38/69 | Thursday Patchy fog/mostly clear 38/68 | Friday Patchy fog/mostly clear 37/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 22 through November 28 This model shows a dominant ridge of upper level high pressure over the western one third of the US. This favors above average temperatures during this time frame along with dry conditions.
November: This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.
November, December, January: This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.
Wind Discussion: Winds today and tonight will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds Saturday and Saturday night will continue out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph. Winds Sunday through Sunday evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with local gusts to 25 mph. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be generally less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion. The chance of rain through midafternoon is low, but not out of the question. The main body of moisture off shore will make its way inland late this afternoon through Saturday night. the result will be periods of showers and even a slight chance of a few thunderstorms. Showers will taper off Saturday night with dry weather Sunday with the possible exception of Kern County which may experience lingering showers into Sunday morning. dry weather will return Sunday afternoon and will last through the coming week. rainfall amounts along the east side of the valley north of Porterville will generally range between .25 and .50 with possibly some higher amounts in Merced County. Along the western side of Fresno and Kings Counties, expect anywhere from .25 to .33. Over the valley portion of Kern County, .10 to possibly as much .25.
Frost Discussion: The air mass which will swing in behind the current system is not that cold. However, mid to upper 30s are possible any night through the coming week in the colder locations. It’s possible isolated river bottom type locations could dip down into the lower 30s for brief durations. Medium range models are not showing any particularly cold air masses coming up soon. In fact, the two week model is indicating above average temperatures.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .56, Parlier, .55, Arvin .76, Delano .58.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Arvin 61, Delano 58
Average Temperatures: 64/42, Record Temperatures: 81/29
Heating Degree Days Season. 146 -89 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .11, Monthly .11
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 58.9 +3.1 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 88 Arvin, 68 Belridge, 71 Shafter, 66 Stratford, 81 Delano 72. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:40. Sunset, 4:48 hours of daylight, 10:10
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 72 / 49 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 75 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 76 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 77 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 77 / 47 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 77 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 76 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 76 / 46 / T /
24hr seas. % L.Y % S.A. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.34 26 1.24 93 1.33 13.45
MODESTO 0.01 0.54 53 1.19 117 1.02 12.27
MERCED 0.01 0.52 45 0.99 86 1.15 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.27 31 0.50 58 0.86 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.11 11 0.66 67 0.99 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.02 3 0.59 77 0.77 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.31 60 0.66 127 0.52 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 50 0.46 92 0.50 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.01 6 0.02 13 0.16 2.20
SALINAS T 0.22 19 1.46 126 1.16 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 T 0 0.71 74 0.96 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.99 93 1.07 13.32
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Next report: November 17/pm
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