November 21, 2023
Summary: We are currently being dominated by two areas of high pressure. The first is a ridge extending from the eastern Pacific Ocean northeastward into Montana. The second is a surface high which, in part, is generating a robust off shore flow. Santa Ana winds are buffeting southern California and will continue to result above average temperatures, especially in Kern County. Dew points are low enough for strong radiational cooling during the overnight hours. Variable high clouds will overspread the valley today and tonight ahead of a weak trough of low pressure dropping southward from the Pacific Northwest. By Thursday night and Friday, this same trough will form a low center over Utah, the western side of which will be over California. Even though there is no active weather associated with this feature, a somewhat cooler air mass will invade California. Along with cooler temperatures will be lower dew points over the weekend. This drier air mass will be conducive for radiational cooling, so widespread low to mid 30s will be likely from Saturday through Tuesday. Unprotected river bottom type terrain may dip down to 28 to 30 with widespread low to mid 30s elsewhere. Once this air mass settles to the bottom of the bathtub, so to speak, there will be several days of areas of frost as the long nights of late November and low sun angle just simply do not allow for temperatures to warm much. Even so, no great freeze is expected, just a series of frost nights to rack up chilling hours and heating degree days.
Forecast: Variable high clouds today and tonight. Mostly clear Wednesday and on through Tuesday of next week with patchy late night and early morning fog..
Temperatures
| Madera 70/37/69/37/67 | Reedley 70/36/67/37/66 | Dinuba 68/36/67/37/68 |
| Porterville 71//37/69/37/67 | Lindsay 70/35/67/36/68 | Delano 70/37/68/38/68 |
| Bakersfield 73/41/68/42/67 | taft 68/46/66/48/63 | Arvin 74/40/69/38/67 |
| Lamont 74/39/69/40/67 | Pixley 71/37/69/38/67 | Tulare 69/36/67/37/66 |
| Woodlake 70/36/68/37/67` | Hanford 70/37/67/38/67 | Orosi 69/36/67/37/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday Mostly clear 35/67 | Saturday Mostly clear 33/62 | Sunday Mostly clear 32/61 | Monday Mostly clear 33/62 | Tuesday Mostly clear 32/63 |
Two Week Outlook: November 26 through December 2 This model shows below average temperatures over most of the lower 48. One of the only exceptions will be central California which should experience near average readings. This model also indicates near average precipitation for the central valley.
November: This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.
November, December, January: This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Friday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion. No rain is likely for the next week to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Along with cooler temperatures over the weekend will be lower dew points. This drier air mass will be conducive for radiational cooling, so widespread low to mid 30s will be likely from Saturday through Tuesday. Unprotected river bottom type terrain may dip down to 28 to 30 with widespread low to mid 30s elsewhere. Once this air mass settles to the bottom of the bathtub, so to speak, there will be several days of areas of frost as the long nights of late November and low sun angle just simply do not allow for temperatures to warm much. Even so, no great freeze is expected, just a series of frost nights to rack up chilling hours and heating degree days.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .50, Parlier, .48, Arvin .70, Delano .59.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 60, Arvin 62, Delano 59
Average Temperatures: 62/41, Record Temperatures: 81/30
Heating Degree Days Season. 182 -105 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .21
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 58.3 +3.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 88 Arvin, 68 Belridge, 71 Shafter, 66 Stratford, 85 Delano 72. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:44. Sunset, 4:46 hours of daylight, 10:05
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 65 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 65 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 67 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 66 / 38 / 0.00 /
24hr seas. % L.Y % S.A. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.64 42 1.24 81 1.53 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.95 81 1.19 102 1.17 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.00 78 0.99 77 1.29 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 43 0.50 51 0.99 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 19 0.66 60 1.10 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 15 0.59 69 0.85 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 54 0.66 112 0.59 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 46 0.46 85 0.54 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 6 0.02 11 0.18 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 17 1.46 110 1.33 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.74 163 0.71 66 1.07 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.33 27 0.99 80 1.23 13.32
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Next report: November 21/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.