November 22, 2023
Summary: The high clouds out there this afternoon are from a weakening trough of low pressure currently moving into the Pacific Northwest. Variable clouds will spread over the area tonight and early Thanksgiving morning as a dry cold front moves through. Behind this system, a low center will develop over the Great Basin with California flanked on the far western edge. This will set off a dry, north/northeast flow Thursday night and Friday and will issue in a cooler and drier air mass. Because we received little rain from the last system, the valley floor is largely dry. That, in conjunction with a cooler, drier air mass, will lead to the first of a string of frost nights beginning Saturday morning. even Friday morning will likely see coldest locations in the mid to upper 30s. By Sunday, a ridge of upper level high pressure will build along the coast, locking in the air mass which will settle in over the weekend. It appears we’ll have at least some frost on the ground through Wednesday morning and possibly longer as late November’s long nights and the low sun angle just don’t allow much daytime heating on the valley floor. models indicate the ridge of high pressure will last until at least Wednesday of next week with mostly clear skies and just a few patches of night and morning fog. Typically this pattern is conducive for hazy conditions, which will be the order of the day. The latest medium range model for the first week in December indicate the possibility of some wet weather. The GFS model is indicating the best chance of rain over southern California will start December 3 with a possibility of more the 5 and 6.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness tonight and for a time thanksgiving morning. mostly clear Thursday afternoon and on through Wednesday of next week with occasional high clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 39/67/36/64 | Reedley 38/68/35/64 | Dinuba 39/68/34/62 |
| Porterville 38/68/35/62 | Lindsay 38/68/33/64 | Delano 38/69/36/65 |
| Bakersfield 42/68/39/65 | Taft 47/65/43/62 | Arvin 40/69/37/65 |
| Lamont 39/69/38/64 | Pixley 40/67/36/64 | Tulare 37/67/34/61 |
| Woodlake 39/68/34/62 | Hanford 38/67/34/62 | Orosi 37/67/33/63 |
Winds: Winds through Saturday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Medium range models continue to point to the time frame of December 3 through 6 for an active weather pattern. this far out, timing and potential rain fall amounts are impossible to discern, but we still have a good trend developing on models. Each day that goes by with the parameters pointing in the right direction gives me higher confidence that somehow the beginning of the rainfall season will get underway.
Frost: Because we received little rain from the last system, the valley floor is largely dry. That, in conjunction with a cooler, drier air mass, will lead to the first of a string of frost nights beginning Saturday morning. even Friday morning will likely see coldest locations in the mid to upper 30s. By Sunday, a ridge of upper level high pressure will build along the coast, locking in the air mass which will settle in over the weekend. It appears we’ll have at least some frost on the ground through Wednesday morning and possibly longer as late November’s long nights and the low sun angle just don’t allow much daytime heating on the valley floor. models indicate the ridge of high pressure will last until at least Wednesday of next week.
We will issue a single report late tomorrow morning, Thanksgiving Day, in order to spend the day with our family. We will be out of the office the remainder of the day.
Next report: November 23/morning