November 24, 2023
Summary: An area of low pressure has developed with its center over eastern Nevada and northern Utah. Upper level high pressure is situated along the Pacific coast with a ridge extending northeastward into British Columbia. The upper winds between the off shore high and the low over the Great Basin has created a north/northeast flow which will slowly mix down a cooler and drier air mass onto the valley floor. Tonight will be the first night of a general frost event in all but the larger urban areas. With mostly clear skies and littlel rain over the past few weeks making for a dry environment, widespread upper 20s and lower 30s can be expected over the next several nights. The off shore high will build inland this weekend, locking in a dry, cool air mass. The air aloft is fairly cold. The balloon sounding above Oakland this morning indicated a freezing level of 7,900 feet. Blue Canyon is 17 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago while Sandburg above the ridge route at 4,,100 feet is 12 cooler. This illustrates very well the change in air masses. Models are in disagreement for the first week in December. The GFS model which formerly depicted a Pacific storm moving into California around December 3 has now backed off on that solution so we’ll keep the medium range forecast dry for now.
Forecast: Other than patchy morning fog, it will be mostly clear through Wednesday night of next week. variable cloudiness Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures
| Madera 61/32/62/31/63 | Reedley 62/31/62/30/63 | Dinuba 61/30/63/30/63 |
| Porterville 63/32/63/31/64 | Lindsay 61/31/63/30/63 | Delano 62//33/63/32/64 |
| Bakersfield 63/35/64/34/65 | Taft 58/39/57/38/56 | Arvin 63/34/63/33/63 |
| Lamont 61/33/63/32/64 | Pixley 61/31/63/30/63 | Tulare 60/30/62/28/60 |
| Woodlake 61/31/62/29/63 | Hanford 61//33/62//31/63 | Orosi 61/31/62/30/63 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Mostly clear 31/63 | Tuesday Mostly clear 31/64 | Wednesday Mostly clear 32/64 | Thursdday Variable clouds 31/63 | Friday Variable clouds 37/62 |
Two Week Outlook: December 1 through December 7 This model indicates the return of a wet pattern to central California. A broad trough of low pressure will cover the eastern Pacific with the possibility of two winter storms affecting the region. Temperatures should run marginally above average.
November: This model depicts above average temperatures for California eastward to the northern Great Basin. Precipitation projections show near average rainfall.
November, December, January: This model projects above average temperatures over the western US. It’s rather surprising that this model is projecting near average precipitation. Typically, during strong El Nino years, which this is, above average precipitation prevails.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion. Dry weather will continue through at least Wednesday of next week and possibly longer. Models vary considerably beginning around December 3. The latest GFS model solution is showing drier results than it had previously. For now, we’ll go with a dry forecast for the next several days and leave a chance of rain after day 7.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella 31 | Porterville 30 | Ivanhoe 29 | Woodlake 30 |
| Strathmore 30 | McFarland 29 | Ducor 31 | Tea Pot Dome 30 |
| Lindsay 29 | Exeter 29 | Famoso 31 | Madera 31 |
| Belridge 29 | Delano 31 | North Bakersfield 33 | Orosi 30 |
| Orange Cove 31 | Lindcove 29 | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger River Bottom 27 |
| Root creek 28 | Venice Hill 30 | Rosedale 33 | Jasmine 31 |
| Arvin 33 | Lamont 33 | Plainview 31 | Mettler 34 |
| Edison 34 | Maricopa 32 | Holland Creek 30 | Tivy Valley 33 |
| Kite Road South 30 | Kite Road North 33 |
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .51, Parlier, .50, Arvin .65, Delano .50.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Arvin 61, Delano 57
Average Temperatures: 61/40, Record Temperatures: 78/29
Heating Degree Days Season. 217 -113 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .21
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 57.2 +3.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 120 Arvin, 97 Belridge, 102 Shafter, 99 Stratford, 113 Delano 103. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:47. Sunset, 4:44 hours of daylight, 9:59
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 69 / 43 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 71 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
24hr seas. % L.Y % S.A. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.64 38 1.24 74 1.68 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.95 74 1.19 92 1.29 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.00 71 0.99 71 1.40 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 39 0.50 45 1.10 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 18 0.66 55 1.19 10.99
HANFO
RD 0.00 0.13 14 0.59 65 0.91 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 49 0.66 102 0.65 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 43 0.46 79 0.58 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 5 0.02 11 0.19 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.22 15 1.46 99 1.48 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.74 149 0.71 61 1.17 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 0.33 24 0.99 73 1.35 13.32
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Next report: November 24/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.