December 10, 2023
Summary: A combination of widespread frost and pockets of fog here and there is our weather this morning. Fowler, Ivanhoe, Terra Bella and Porterville have all chilled down to 29 degrees this morning, so no doubt there are isolated cold pockets down to 26 to 27. Very little change is anticipated until Wednesday morning. We remain on the eastern flank of high pressure off the southern California coast. The balloon sounding this morning over Vandenburg AFB indicated a freezing level of 13,800 feet, illustrating the warm air inversion capping the valley. With only 9 hours and 43 minutes of daylight, the longest nights of the year will see strong radiational cooling each night, leading to upper 20s to lower 30s each morning. Beginning Tuesday, the off shore high will build a ridge eastward into the Pacific Northwest while a low carves itself out over the Great Basin. By midweek, this will turn into a low over southern Nevada and a strong high just off shore. The combination of a developing off shore surface flow and continuing building high pressure will lead to a warming trend after Wednesday with afternoon highs pushing into the mid to upper 60s. this will drag up overnight lows into the 30s. medium range models for the past several days have been showing a large low center will be off the California coast around the 20th. Theoretically, this could lead to a chance of rain. Considering the persistence of the current high pressure regime, we’ll leave the forecast dry and see if models continue this trend in the coming days.
Forecast: Patchy night and morning fog, otherwise it will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Wednesday. Mostly clear skies with patchy fog will continue Wednesday through Sunday.
Temperatures
| Madera 62/30/62/30/63 | Reedley 63/30/62/29/62 | Dinuba 61/28/62/29/62 |
| Porterville 63/29/63/29/64 | Lindsay 62/28/63/29/63 | Delano 62/30/63/30/63 |
| Bakersfield 63/37/62/36/62 | Taft 59/43/59/44/60 | Arvin 63/31/62/31/63 |
| Lamont 63/30/64/31/64 | Pixley 62/29/62/29/63 | Tulare 62/28/62/29/63 |
| Woodlake 62/29/63/29/63 | Hanford 62/30/62/31/62 | Orosi 61/28/62/29/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday AM fog/PM sun 31/63 | Thursday AM fog/PM sun 32/65 | Friday AM fog/PM sun 34/67 | Saturday AM fog/PM sun 35/67 | Sunday AM fog/PM sun 34/68 |
Two Week Outlook: December 16 through December22 This model indicates the storm track will continue through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time. The chance of rain during this period remains low with above average temperatures.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February : If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Most locations are roughly a degree or so warmer than 24 hours ago with widespread upper 20s and low 30s as of 6:00am. With mostly clear skies, a combination of widespread frost and patchy fog will again prevail tonight. Coldest locations will chill down to 27 to 28 degrees with most flatland regions in the 29 to 32 range. Hillsides will generally be above freezing. The inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet ranging 5 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. Expect similar conditions Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. After Wednesday, models show high pressure strengthening above the valley floor, causing highs to raise into the mid to upper 60s. this will ultimately cause overnight lows to move up as well, ranging in the 30s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella 29 | Porterville 29 | Ivanhoe 28 | Woodlake 30 |
| Strathmore 30 | McFarland 28 | Ducor 29 | Tea pot dome 29 |
| Lindsay 28 | Exeter 29 | Famoso 30 | Madera 30 |
| Belridge 29 | Delano 30 | North Bakersfield 31 | Orosi 28 |
| Orange cove 30 | Lindcove 29 | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger river bottom 27 |
| Root creek 28 | Venice hill 29 | Rosedale 31 | Jasmine 30 |
| Arvin 31 | Lamont 30 | Plainview 29 | Mettler 32 |
| Edison 31 | Maricopa 32 | Holland creek 31 | Tivy Valley 29 |
| Kite Road South 31 | Kite Road North 29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .46, Parlier, .37, Arvin .43, Delano .38.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 54, Arvin 55, Delano 52
Average Temperatures: 56/37, Record Temperatures: 74/26
Heating Degree Days Season. 450 -151 widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 50.8 +3.7 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 288 Arvin, 218 Belridge, 234 Shafter, 249 Stratford, 258 Delano 266. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:01. Sunset, 4:43 hours of daylight, 9:42
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 60 / 32 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 60 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 59 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 60 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 60 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 58 / 34 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 59 / 32 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 0.74 27 2.69 98 2.74 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 0.98 45 2.91 133 2.19 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.01 47 2.52 118 2.13 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.43 24 1.50 82 1.82 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 11 2.35 128 1.84 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 9 1.63 117 1.39 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 30 0.90 86 1.05 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 32 0.65 82 0.79 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 4 0.02 7 0.28 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 0.70 29 2.38 98 2.44 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.76 93 2.72 143 1.90 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 16 2.04 96 2.13 13.32
Next report: December 10/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.