December 18, 2023
Summary: The first of two low pressure systems is located just off the northern California coast this morning. precipitation is widespread from Merced County north with light showers in the south valley. The first storm will be absorbed by a second system located in northeast Pacific. This low will track slowly southward parallel to the California coast over the next 72 hours. The air mass with this storm is very warm. The balloon sounding above Oakland a short time ago indicated a freezing level of 10,100 feet so only the highest peaks in the Sierra Nevada will see snow. By midweek, that snow level will lower to around 7,000 feet. By Friday, the center of circulation of this storm will be tracking inland through extreme southern California and northern Baja, leading us into a dry Christmas weekend. Models are still depicting a semi zonal flow beginning the 26th for additional chances of precipitation, especially over the northern half of California.
Forecast: Periods of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms through Wednesday night. partly cloudy Friday through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Temperatures
| Madera 68/49/66/47/67 | Reedley 68/49/67/49/66 | Dinuba 67/48/66/48/65 |
| Porterville 70/50/68/51/68 | Lindsay 69/49/66/49/66 | Delano 71/51/68/50/68 |
| Bakersfield 72/52/68/52/68 | Taft\ 68/52/65/53/67 | Arvin 72/52/69/52/68 |
| Lamont 71/51/69/50/67 | Pixley 70/49/67/47/67 | Tulare 67/48/66/47/67 |
| Woodlake 68/48/67/48/65 | Hanford 70/49/68/49/67 | Orosi 67/48/66/47/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday Showers likely 48/67 | Friday Partly cloudy 43/64 | Saturday AM fog/partly cloudy 37/62 | Sunday AM fog/partly cloudy 33/59 | Monday Am fog/partly cloudy 30/57 |
Two Week Outlook: Christmas Day through December31 This model shows a westerly flow across the Pacific and into California. This is typically a mild pattern with above average temperatures. The risk of precipitation is fairly high with this pattern.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February: If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Rain Discussion: Now that the rain has begun, expect periods of showers to continue at times through Thursday and possibly Thursday night. Currently, the heaviest precipitation is over northern California, however that will change as the week wears of as the center of the low’s circulation tracks southward parallel to the central coast. Dry weather will return Friday and continue through Christmas Day. The northern half of California should see the return of precipitation at times the day after Christmas with periodic bouts of precipitation through the 29th. Rainfall amounts from today through Thursday night should range from an inch to an inch and a half in eastern Fresno County northward to Merced County. An inch to an inch and a quarter is a good estimate for most of Tulare County with one half to one inch in western Fresno and Kings Counties and generally at or less than one half inch over the valley portion of Kern County.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing through at least Saturday morning. models show a fairly cold air mass tracking southeastward behind the current series of storms. We may see local frost return Sunday morning with possibly a general frost event beginning a week from today. Currently, it does not appear to be a major freeze threat, but upper 20s and lower 30s are possible. This appears to be a short lived little threat as the westerlies will break into northern California, spreading milder air into the district.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .41, Parlier, .41, Arvin .46, Delano .40.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 51, Arvin 52, Delano 49
Average Temperatures: 55/36, Record Temperatures: 71/26
Heating Degree Days Season. 579 -175 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .21, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .30, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 49.8 +3.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 419 Arvin, 335 Belridge, 357 Shafter, 374 Stratford, 372 Delano 391. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:07. Sunset, 4:45 hours of daylight, 9:39
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 49 / T /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 67 / 48 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 67 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 64 / 47 / T /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 62 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 63 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 67 / 47 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 69 / 47 / T /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.37 1.11 33 4.47 133 3.35 13.45
MODESTO 0.02 1.00 36 4.48 163 2.75 12.27
MERCED 0.00 1.01 39 3.77 144 2.62 11.80
MADERA T 0.43 19 2.04 89 2.29 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.21 9 3.25 143 2.27 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 8 2.34 137 1.71 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.32 24 1.10 83 1.32 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.25 27 2.15 234 0.92 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.01 3 0.03 9 0.35 2.20
SALINAS M 0.70 24 3.77 127 2.97 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 1.76 74 4.34 183 2.37 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 13 3.27 125 2.61 13.32
Next report: December 18/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.