December 22, 2023
Summary: it didn’t take long for the fog and low clouds to take over. With the wet ground and upper level high pressure, widespread fog and low clouds are evident throughout the valley. Bakersfield is reporting light showers with a visibility of one mile, Porterville is overcast at just 300 feet, Fresno is reporting overcast at just 1,100 feet, Visalia 600 feet, and Madera ¼ mile visibility in dense fog.
Now that the valley is locked in with fog and low clouds, the forecast challenge will be when will it clear and where. Temperature forecasting will be difficult as it will depend on afternoon clearing. The center of the upper low is now west of Tijuana. Light showers are still occurring as far north as Lindsay in the valley. These light showers will slowly diminish during the day with dry weather in all areas by this evening. Upper level high pressure is currently building in from the west and will dominate our weather throughout Wednesday of next week. with a warm air inversion above the valley floor, fog and/or low clouds will dominate our weather at least through the middle of next week. models do show a weak weather system moving through northern California around Thursday of next week for a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north. Medium range models show an active weather pattern during the first week of January.
Forecast; Fog and/or low clouds this morning with a chance of light showers, mainly in kern county. Cloudy in most areas by mid afternoon. Widespread fog and low clouds returning tonight. Clearing in most areas by midafternoon through Wednesday. Increasing higher clouds Wednesday night. a slight chance of showers Thursday and Thursday night, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Friday.
Temperatures
| Madera 59/40/58/38/59 | Reedley 57/44/59/41/58 | Dinuba 58/42/59/41/59 |
| Porterville 58/42/61/42/59 | Lindsay 60/41/58/40/58 | Delano 61/41/60/41/59 |
| Bakersfield 58/46/60/44/59 | Taft 60/48/58/46/57 | Arvin 60/43/61/41/60 |
| Lamont 61/44/59/41/58 | Pixley 59/41/60/39/59 | Tulare 58/39/60/37/58 |
| Woodlake 59/41/59/40/58 | Hanford 60/43/60/39/57 | Orosi 59/41/58/38/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Am fog/pm sun 35/58 | Tuesday Am fog/pm sun 37/57 | Wednesday Am fog/pm sun 39/62 | Thursday Slight chance of showers 43/65 | Friday Am fog/partly cloudy 38/63 |
Two Week Outlook: December29 through January 4 This model shows a westerly flow across the Pacific and into California. This is typically a mild pattern with above average temperatures. The risk of precipitation is fairly high with this pattern.
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February: If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain Discussion: light showers were still occurring as north as southern Tulare and Kings counties. The south Valley is on the far northern fringe of a low pressure system located just to the west of Tijuana. The remainder of the growing area is dry and will continue to be dry. The activity in the south valley will slowly diminish today. Expect dry weather tonight through at least Wednesday of next week. a trough of low pressure will move through Thursday and Thursday night. the dynamics this far south will be weak but we’ll keep a chance of light showers in the forecast for Thursday and Thursday night, mainly north of Fresno County. Longer range models are indicating an active pattern the first week of January. That may be our next chance of significant precipitation.
Frost Discussion: The valley’s great protector against the cold is back. Fog and/or low clouds are dominate throughout the entire valley this morning. with a soaking wet ground and a warm air inversion, fog and low clouds will maintain above freezing conditions at least through Wednesday of next week. it’s possible a clear night could be sandwiched in there, in which case low to mid 30s will be possible. For now, though, we’ll go with above freezing conditions. There is still nothing on long range models that would signal alarm.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .25, Parlier, .30, Arvin .35, Delano .27.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53, Arvin 53, Delano 52
Average Temperatures: 54/36, Record Temperatures: 70/19
Heating Degree Days Season. 608 -226 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .73, Monthly .52
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .72, Monthly: .40
Average Temperature this Month 51.3 +5.0 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 428 Arvin, 343 Belridge, 365 Shafter, 383 Stratford, 381 Delano 399. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:09. Sunset, 4:47 hours of daylight, 9:39
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 60 / 48 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 59 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 58 / 52 / T /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 58 / 53 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 56 / 47 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 54 / 52 / 0.16 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 57 / 52 / T /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 56 / 50 / 0.01 /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 2.26 62 4.47 122 3.67 13.45
MODESTO T 2.61 86 4.48 147 3.05 12.27
MERCED 0.00 2.33 81 3.77 131 2.88 11.80
MADERA 0.08 1.45 57 2.04 80 2.54 10.79
FRESNO 0.08 0.73 29 3.25 128 2.53 10.99
HANFORD 0.03 1.01 53 2.34 123 1.91 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.23 0.72 49 1.10 75 1.47 6.36
BISHOP 0.20 0.61 60 2.15 213 1.01 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.13 0.14 37 0.03 8 0.38 2.20
SALINAS 0.02 1.78 55 3.77 116 3.26 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.49 4.63 175 4.34 164 2.65 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.08 2.44 84 3.27 113 2.90 13.32
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Next report: December 22/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.