With no active weather or sign of frost, we will be taking the afternoon off both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. We wish you a blessed Christmas holiday.
December 22, 2023
Summary: for the second morning in a row, fog and/or low clouds shroud the San Joaquin Valley from Merced County south. At last observation, Visalia, Fresno, and Hanford each had ¼ mile visibility. Porterville was reporting a low overcast of 300 feet and Bakersfield 3,700 feet.
Upper level high pressure has now moved in overhead. The necessary warm air inversion for widespread valley fog is taking shape. Temperatures for the next several days will be determined by how much clearing occurs in any given location. On days where there is no clearing, highs will only warm into the upper 40s and lower 50s. on days where hazy sunshine is noted, highs will rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s. the high will dominate our weather through at least Tuesday night then will give way to a trough of low pressure Wednesday night and Thursday morning. This looks like a pretty weak event so we’ll call for just a chance of showers from mainly Fresno County north. Another similarly anemic looking system will move through Saturday. I noted also that models have backed off somewhat on the active pattern for the first week of January previously noted.
Forecast; Extensive night and morning fog and/or low clouds through Wednesday with partial afternoon clearing each day. Increasing higher clouds above the fog each afternoon, leading to a chance of light showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning. partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday night. a slight chance of showers from Fresno County north Saturday.
Temperatures
High temperatures today through Monday will warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s where no afternoon sunshine occurs. Where hazy sunshine breaks through, highs will warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. overnight lows will cool into the mid to upper 30s where skies are relatively clear to the mid to upper 40s where low overcast remains.
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday Am fog/pm sun 42/57 | Wednesday Chance of showers 45/64 | Thursday Am showers possible 42/65 | Friday Am fog/partly cloudy 39/61 | Saturday Am fog/pm sun 39/62 |
Two Week Outlook: December 30 through January 5 This model shows a westerly flow across the Pacific and into California. This is typically a mild pattern with above average temperatures. The risk of precipitation is fairly high with this pattern
December: This model continues to favor above average temperatures during the month of December. There’s no trend either way for rainfall, so average amounts of precipitation is our forecast.
December, January, February: If this model has any credence, this winter will experience above average temperatures. This model also favors above average rainfall for the next 90 days.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through at least Wednesday. The trailing position of a trough of low pressure will move through Wednesday night and Thursday morning for a chance at light showers. Another similar system will move through next Saturday for a chance of showers, mainly north of Fresno. The GFS model is not nearly as bullish on the chance of rain the first week of January.
Frost Discussion: On this morning in 1990, the temperature fell to 18 degrees at Fresno with widespread mid to upper teens. Thus began ten days of the hardest freeze over the past 50 years. One weather station northeast of Lindsay recorded a low of 11.50 degrees. Needless to say, the citrus crop was destroyed that year. Nothing like that at all this year as the general flow pattern over the eastern Pacific and north America has been out of the west or northwest, cutting off cold air masses, this same basic pattern will remain in place for at least the next 10 days. We now suddenly enjoy the benefits of fog and low clouds which almost erased the radiational cooling. If a clear night happens to be sandwiched in there, low to mid 30s could occur. The bottom line is, safe conditions will continue for the next week to possibly ten days.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .20, Parlier, .24, Arvin .28, Delano .22.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 54, Arvin 54, Delano 53
Average Temperatures: 54/36, Record Temperatures: 68/18
Heating Degree Days Season. 619 -235 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .73, Monthly .52
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .79, Monthly: .47
Average Temperature this Month 51.4 +5.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 428 Arvin, 343 Belridge, 365 Shafter, 383 Stratford, 381 Delano 399. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:09. Sunset, 4:48 hours of daylight, 9:39
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 63 / 46 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 62 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 56 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 60 / 48 / T /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 59 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 57 / 46 / 0.07 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 55 / 45 / 0.01 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 57 / 46 / T /
Rainfall: 24hr seas. % L.Y % S.Ave. 365
STOCKTON 0.00 2.26 60 4.47 119 3.75 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 2.61 83 4.48 143 3.13 12.27
MERCED 0.00 2.33 79 3.77 128 2.94 11.80
MADERA 0.00 1.45 56 2.04 78 2.60 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.73 28 3.25 125 2.60 10.99
HANFORD T 1.01 52 2.34 119 1.96 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.07 0.79 52 1.10 73 1.51 6.36
BISHOP T 0.61 59 2.15 207 1.04 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.01 3 0.03 8 0.39 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 1.78 53 3.77 113 3.33 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.01 4.64 171 4.34 160 2.72 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.01 2.48 84 3.27 110 2.97 13.32
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Next report: December 22/pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.