December 31, 2023
Summary:In case you thought it was an unusually warm December, it was. Hanford, for example, through yesterday, ranged 6.2 degrees above average for the month so far. At this point, we haven’t had any episodes of polar air, although that may be changing later in January, which is discussed in the frost summary below.
The bulk of the cloud cover overhead this morning is from a low pressure system located about 500 miles west of the California coast. However, instead of moving eastward, this system will move southeastward, eventually moving inland through northern Baja Monday afternoon and night. The next Pacific storm will begin to bear down on central California Tuesday night, spreading precipitation all the way down the valley. This system is a bit weaker than yesterday’s event. Most locations should still pick up a tenth or two of rain with locally more. A weak wedge of upper level high pressure will build in Thursday and Friday for a temporary reprieve in the unsettled weather. Next on the agenda is a rather robust low in the Gulf of Alaska which will slide southeastward into California late Friday night into Saturday. This system will be considerably colder with lower snow levels and, for a change, some heavy snow up and down the Sierra Nevada. Models beginning January 7th are showing a massive high building along the west coast. By the tenth, this high will reach into Alaska, allowing very cold air to move southward into the western US. Fortunately, it appears this period will also have an active pattern with Pacific storms moving from north to south into the western states from time to time and more much needed snow in the Sierras and rain to the low lands.
Forecast: cloudiness through tonight; becoming partly cloudy Monday and Monday night. areas of dense fog Tuesday morning. Otherwise, it will be mostly clear. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with an increasing chance of rain after midnight. Light rain at times Wednesday. A chance of showers for a time Wednesday night mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Friday with areas of morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. rain becoming likely at times Saturday into Sunday.
| Madera 58/37/59/35/60 | Reedley 59/36/59/34/59 | Dinuba 57/39/58/38/59 |
| Porterville 58/39/58/38/60 | Lindsay 57/39/58/37/60 | Delano 56/41/57/38/59 |
| Bakersfield 58/44/58/40/61 | Taft 56/46/56/42/58 | Arvin 59/42/59/39/60 |
| Lamont 59/42/59/40/59 | Pixley 58/37/59/37/60 | Tulare 57/38/58/36/58 |
| Woodlake 57/39/59/36/59 | Hanford 58/40/59/37/60 | Orosi 56/39/58/36/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday Rain likely 41/58 | Thursday AM fog/partly cloudy 36/57 | Friday AM fog/partly cloudy 33/57 | Saturday Rain likely 39/57 | Sunday AM showers 35/58 |
Two Week Outlook: January 7 through January 13: This model shows a possible north to northwest flow developing for a possible trend of below average temperatures. There is a better than even chance that precipitation will occur during this period.
January: This model shows above average temperatures over California. It also reflects an El Nino type pattern with above average rainfall over all of California. The highest risk of above average rainfall will be over northern California. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
January, February, March This model also has an El Nino signature to it. There are two areas of above average rain depicted. First is California and the interior west. The second is the south eastern US. Temperatures for the next three months should be above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Tuesday will be generally less than 6 mph. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will become out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph. Local gusts to 25 mph are possible Wednesday, mainly in Kern County.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through Tuesday. The chance of light rain will begin to increase later Wednesday night and will continue off and on through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts from this event will be underwhelming. Even so, most locations should pick up a tenth or two with locally more. Thursday and Friday will be dry with rain spreading over the valley again Saturday. This will be a colder system out of the Gulf of Alaska. Rain should last through Sunday before tapering off.
Frost Discussion: all locations will be above freezing tonight and again Tuesday morning. any night this week, temperatures could fall into the low 30s on fog free nights. A big change is coming in the pattern beginning this weekend. Some models show a cold low in the Gulf of Alaska dropping due south along the coast and into California around the tenth. A massive high is projected to develop over the eastern Pacific Ocean clear into Alaska. In the meantime, modified arctic air will surge southward into the US from western Canada. This pattern could potentially be quite cold, however so far models indicate this will be an active pattern with a chance of rain from time to time and snow at low elevations. As you might expect, models at this point are showing different outcomes, but it does appear the period January 8 through 12 will see below average temperatures. Just how far below average is the question.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .34, Parlier, .31, Arvin .35, Delano .33.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 55, Arvin 55, Delano 53
Average Temperatures: 54/37, Record Temperatures: 69/23
Heating Degree Days Season. 702 -312 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .89, Monthly .68
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .79, Monthly: .47
Average Temperature this Month 52.2 +6.2 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 451 Arvin, 372 Belridge, 408 Shafter, 420 Stratford, 426 Delano 436. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:11. Sunset, 4:53 hours of daylight, 9:42
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 57 / 48 / 0.12 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 61 / 47 / 0.12 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 56 / 45 / 0.15 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 61 / 41 / 0.24 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 62 / 45 / 0.15 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 61 / 45 / 0.15 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 57 / 41 / 0.18 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 55 / 41 / 0.19 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.26 3.44 78 6.89 156 4.42 13.45
MODESTO 0.29 3.75 100 6.76 180 3.76 12.27
MERCED 0.60 3.00 85 5.35 152 3.51 11.80
MADERA 0.44 1.89 61 2.63 84 3.12 10.79
FRESNO 0.16 0.89 28 4.82 153 3.15 10.99
HANFORD 0.27 1.28 54 3.49 146 2.39 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.17 0.96 52 1.98 107 1.85 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.61 47 2.38 184 1.29 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.28 60 0.03 6 0.47 2.20
SALINAS 0.18 2.62 67 5.84 149 3.91 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.91 5.91 177 5.36 161 3.33 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.68 3.29 91 4.88 134 3.63 13.32
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Next report: January 1, morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.