January 2, 2024
Summary: A cold low is located off the California/southern Oregon coast this morning and will dig rapidly into central California later tonight and Wednesday. Quantitative precipitation estimates have upped the ante this morning. latest estimates are anywhere from a quarter to a half inch north of Kern County with perhaps a tenth or two over Kern County. The low will slide into southern Nevada and Arizona late Wednesday night and Thursday. A brief ridge of high pressure will well up Thursday and Friday ahead of the next system which originates in the Gulf of Alaska. Snow may fall down to roughly 2,500 feet or so Saturday and Sunday. After Sunday, a high will build along the eastern Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska while an upper low develops over the Desert Southwest. Some of this morning’s models show a north/northwest flow next Monday and Tuesday which will transport colder air into our region. So far, this pattern is generally over water which will modify it somewhat. Even so, mid 20s to lower 30s are possible Monday and Tuesday. Longer range models show an active pattern continuing with storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California from time to time. This is a chilly pattern which could go a long way in building the Sierra snow pack.
Forecast: Widespread low clouds and fog this morning with increasing higher clouds above the fog. Showers spreading southward by late evening. Periods of showers Wednesday through roughly mid afternoon. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday through Friday with areas of morning fog. A chance of showers Saturday, mainly in the afternoon. Showers likely Saturday night with snow into the foothills. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday with areas of morning fog.
| Madera 57/38/54/36/52 | Reedley 58/40/55/40/53 | Dinuba 57/40/55/40/53 |
| Porterville 59/42/55/42/53 | Lindsay 59/39/55/38/53 | Delano 58/40/55/40/53 |
| Bakersfield 59/43/56/43/52 | Taft 59/47/52/45/49 | Arvin 60/42/54/40/52 |
| Lamont 61/41/54/40/52 | Pixley 59/40/54/38/52 | Tulare 57/40/55/40/53 |
| Woodlake 56/40/55/40/53 | Hanford 59/41/56/41/53 | Orosi 57/43/55/38/53 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday AM fog/partly cloudy 34/53 | Saturday PM rain 33/54 | Sunday AM showers 37/51 | Monday AM fog/partly cloudy 30/54 | Tuesday AM fog/partly cloudy 29/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 8 through January 14: This model shows a possible north to northwest flow developing for a possible trend of below average temperatures. There is a better than even chance that precipitation will occur during this period.
January: This model shows above average temperatures over California. It also reflects an El Nino type pattern with above average rainfall over all of California. The highest risk of above average rainfall will be over northern California. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
January, February, March This model also has an El Nino signature to it. There are two areas of above average rain depicted. First is California and the interior west. The second is the south eastern US. Temperatures for the next three months should be above average.
Rain Discussion: Two cold Pacific storms will affect central California this week. The first will spread showers down the valley during the later evening hours with showers continuing Wednesday through roughly midafternoon. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and continue through Friday night. the second storm will arrive Saturday, continuing Saturday night. This appears to be the coldest of the two with snow down to roughly 2,500 feet in the Sierra Nevada. Dry weather returns later Sunday and will continue through Tuesday. Medium range models for later next week show the continuation of an active pattern with storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California from time to time.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing through Thursday morning. temperatures Friday and Saturday mornings could drop to 28 to 32, depending on cloud cover and fog. River bottom type locations could drop down to 27 or so. My feeling is that a combination of fog and low clouds and upslope clouds will keep most locations in the 29 to 34 degree range. Sunday morning will be above freezing due to cloud cover and showers. Models this morning indicate a north/northwest flow into California, meaning the general flow pattern will be over the Pacific and into California, will be dominant. Even though this is a cold pattern, it certainly could be colder if the pattern was taking more of an overland trajectory. My current thinking is lows will drop to 27 to 32 Monday through Tuesday although we will have to deal with fog and low clouds, upslope clouds, and wind conditions.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .27, Parlier, .25, Arvin .32, Delano .28.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 54, Arvin 55, Delano 52
Average Temperatures: 54/37, Record Temperatures: 70/20
Heating Degree Days Season. 733 -315 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .89, Monthly .00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: .96, Monthly: .00
Average Temperature this Month 48.5 +2.5 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 462 Arvin, 384 Belridge, 408 Shafter, 429 Stratford, 427 Delano 447. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:12. Sunset, 4:55 hours of daylight, 9:42
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 58 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 57 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 50 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 51 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 57 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 56 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 49 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 54 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 3.44 75 9.74 213 4.58 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.75 96 8.21 210 3.91 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.00 82 6.34 174 3.64 11.80
MADERA 0.00 1.89 58 2.90 89 3.25 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 0.89 27 5.42 165 3.29 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.28 51 3.86 154 2.50 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.96 50 2.37 123 1.93 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.61 45 3.12 229 1.36 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.29 59 0.20 41 0.49 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 2.62 65 6.27 154 4.06 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 5.91 169 6.25 179 3.50 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.30 87 5.96 157 3.80 13.32
Next report: January 2, afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.