January 4, 2024
Summary: There is a potpourri of fog and/or low overcast throughout the valley at this hour. Merced and Visalia have reduced visibilities while Bakersfield, Fresno, and Porterville are each reporting a low overcast with a base at 200 feet at Fresno, 1,400 feet at Bakersfield and up to 4,200 feet at Porterville. These clouds will be slow to burn off today. There are also variable amounts of higher clouds based at 12,000 feet. Weak upper level high pressure will be overhead today. A very weak wave of low pressure will move through Friday with no precipitation. The next weather system is very cold and will drop out of the eastern Gulf of Alaska and into central California Saturday night and Sunday morning. snow levels with this event will drop down to 2,000 to 3,000 feet in the surrounding mountains and foothills. Most locations will record less than .10 from this event. A couple of cold mornings are coming up Monday and Tuesday as skies clear. Temperatures below 30 degrees are expected. This is discussed in the frost summary below. Weak high pressure will dominate our weather from Monday through Tuesday night. by late Wednesday, the next cold system out of the Gulf of Alaska will be approaching from the northwest for another round of showers Wednesday night and Thursday of next week. The pattern will remain active as another low moves in Friday night and Saturday of next week.
Forecast: Widespread fog and/or low clouds this morning. becoming mostly to partly cloudy this afternoon and tonight. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday with areas of dense fog. Increasing cloudiness Saturday with a chance of light showers before sunset. Periods of light showers Saturday night, mainly before midnight. Partly cloudy Sunday after patchy morning fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday leading to a chance of showers Wednesday night and Thursday.
| Madera 51/33/53/30/55 | Reedley 52/33/55/31/53 | Dinuba 51/32/55/30/52 |
| Porterville 50/34/53/30/55 | Lindsay 49/32/53/30/54 | Delano 52/35/54/31/55 |
| Bakersfield 49/35/53/34/55 | Taft 49/41/50/38/53 | Arvin 50/36/53/33/54 |
| Lamont 50/34/53/33/55 | Pixley 51/34/53/31/55 | Tulare 51/34/55/30/53 |
| Woodlake 51/34/55/30/52 | Hanford 52/32/55/31/53 | Orosi 51/34/53/30/52 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday Am showers 38/49 | Monday Am fog/hazy sun 28/53 | Tuesday Am fog/hazy sun 29/55 | Wednesday Pm showers possible 33/56 | Thursday AM showers 35/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 11 through January 17: This model continues the trend of below average temperatures for central California. The storm track is not shown to be as active as previously depicted. Even so, near average precipitation can be expected with below average temperatures.
January: This model shows above average temperatures over California. It also reflects an El Nino type pattern with above average rainfall over all of California. The highest risk of above average rainfall will be over northern California. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
January, February, March This model also has an El Nino signature to it. There are two areas of above average rain depicted. First is California and the interior west. The second is the south eastern US. Temperatures for the next three months should be above average.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry weather through Saturday. The chance of light showers will begin to increase by sunset Saturday. Periods of light showers will continue Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Dry weather will return Sunday and will last through at least Tuesday night. Rainfall from this latest storm will be light with most locations north of Kern County recording .25 or less. Most locations over the valley portion of Kern County will record .10 or less. It appears we’ll have two more opportunities for rain next week. The first is Wednesday night through Thursday then yet another Friday night into Saturday.
Frost Discussion: all locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but at or slightly above at some locations. Currently the valley is shrouded in layers of clouds of low fog. It’s possible all or part of this cloud cover will remain through the night tonight. There is an outside chance that isolated pockets could drop into the upper 20s, but that would only happen if skies clear for several hours and that’s unlikely. There is a greater risk of below freezing temperatures Saturday morning, coldest temperatures Saturday morning could drop to 28 ot 29 with widespread low to mid 30s elsewhere. The risk factor for mid to upper20s goes up Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures at the coldest locations each morning may drop to 25 to 26v in the very coldest frost pockets with readings of 28 to31 elsewhere. A lot hinges on the amount of fog and low clouds and possible remaining upslope clouds. Another upslope event similar to what we’re experiencing this morning may occur Monday as well. Most models show dew points dropping into the mid to upper 30s Monday. Combined with a cold pool of air on the valley floor, we should see widespread below average temperatures. Yet another system will arrive late Wednesday into Thursday. Upper 20s and lower 30s may occur Thursday and Friday mornings. Just as a heads up, the GFS model this morning depicts a possible very cold pattern around the 13 which is a flip flop from previous models. More on that in the coming days.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .25, Parlier, .21, Arvin .30, Delano .26.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 53, Arvin 53, Delano 51
Average Temperatures: 54/37, Record Temperatures: 71/22
Heating Degree Days Season. 766 -320 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 1.24, Monthly .35
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 1.11, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 48.3 +2.3 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 465 Arvin, 413 Belridge, 417 Shafter, 453 Stratford, 430 Delano 470. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:12. Sunset, 4:57 hours of daylight, 9:44
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 57 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 56 / 37 / T /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 56 / 41 / T /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 56 / 38 / 0.15 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 59 / 40 / 0.05 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 58 / 44 / 0.02 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 56 / 38 / 0.04 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 56 / 40 / 0.09 /
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Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.06 4.01 85 10.31 218 4.74 13.45
MODESTO 0.05 4.23 104 8.56 210 4.07 12.27
MERCED 0.01 3.29 87 6.62 175 3.79 11.80
MADERA 0.05 2.29 68 3.04 90 3.38 10.79
FRESNO 0.18 1.24 36 5.75 167 3.44 10.99
HANFORD 0.30 1.76 67 4.00 153 2.62 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.13 1.09 54 2.48 123 2.01 6.36
BISHOP T 0.61 42 3.12 217 1.44 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.29 57 0.20 39 0.51 2.20
SALINAS M 2.62 62 6.27 149 4.21 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.02 6.34 173 6.32 173 3.66 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.12 3.61 91 6.06 152 3.98 13.32
Next report: January 4 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.