January 5, 2024
Summary: Skies are mostly cloudy with just patchy ground fog this morning. A layer of higher clouds based between 10,000 and 15,000 feet inhibited the radiational cooling process, contributing to considerably less fog this morning. There is weak ripple of low pressure moving through central California this morning which is responsible for the higher clouds. These clouds will clear from northwest to southeast during the late morning and afternoon hours. The next Pacific storm is on track. As it moves out of the Gulf of Alaska, spreading precipitation over northern California Saturday morning with light showers hitting Merced County by middle to late afternoon. It will then spread over the remainder of the valley Saturday night. this system is not carrying a lot of water, however most locations north of Kern County will pick up between .10 and .25. This is a fast moving system. Upper level high pressure will begin moving in from the west beginning Sunday. It will dominate our pattern through Tuesday night. freezing temperatures are likely Monday and Tuesday mornings. This is detailed below. Models yesterday started looking weaker for a Pacific storm due in here Wednesday and Wednesday night. that trend continues this morning. We’ll continue to use the phrase chance of light showers for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Upper-level high pressure will quickly follow Thursday through Friday. Another system will be knocking on our door next weekend, however, due to lack of model consistency, we’ll keep the forecast dry for next week until models come into better focus.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy for a time this morning. clearing later this morning. becoming mostly clear this afternoon. Partly cloudy tonight with patchy fog forming late. Increasing cloudiness Saturday morning. light showers reaching Merced County late Saturday afternoon, spreading over the rest of the valley during the evening hours. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday after patchy morning fog. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday with patchy morning fog. A chance of light showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Friday.
| Madera 55/33/55/34/48 | Reedley 54/33/53/35/50 | Dinuba 53/32//53/36/49 |
| Porterville 54/32/55/35/50 | Lindsay 53/32/55/35/49 | Delano 56/33/53/37/50 |
| Bakersfield 55/35/56/37/48 | Taft 52/38/54/40/48 | Arvin 56/34/55/38/48 |
| Lamont 56/35/55/36/49 | Pixley 55/33/55/36/48 | Tulare 53/32/54/36/48 |
| Woodlake 53/32/53/36/49 | Hanford 54/34/53/38/50 | Orosi 53/32/53/36/48 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Patchy fog/mostly clear 27/48 | Tuesday Patchy fog/mostly clear 28/52 | Wednesday Chance of showers 34/54 | Thursday Partly cloudy 33/54 | Friday Patchy fog/mostly clear 32/53 |
Two Week Outlook: January 12 through January 18: This model paints below average temperatures over the western 2/3 of the US, including California. The chance for above average precipitation is certainly there as the storm track moves just to our north.
January: This model shows above average temperatures over California. It also reflects an El Nino type pattern with above average rainfall over all of California. The highest risk of above average rainfall will be over northern California. Temperatures should be somewhat above average.
January, February, March This model also has an El Nino signature to it. There are two areas of above average rain depicted. First is California and the interior west. The second is the south eastern US. Temperatures for the next three months should be above average.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through tonight. Light showers will begin to overspread Merced County by midafternoon Saturday then will quickly move southward during the early evening hours. This will be a fast mover so Sunday through at least Tuesday night will be dry. There are questions about a system due in here Wednesday and Wednesday night. some models show measurable precipitation remaining north of the growing area while others show at least a chance of measurable rain. For now, we’ll simply go with a chance of light showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. dry weather will return Thursday and continue through at least Friday night. models differ a great deal on a pattern for next weekend. For now, we’ll simply go with dry weather, however this will be subject to change.
Frost Discussion: Most locations will range in the low to mid 30s tonight. Models indicate cloud cover will be rather sparce. This will give the fog a chance to become reestablished over parts of the valley. My feeling is, whatever fog does form will form too late to be of much benefit. Regardless, it’s a safe night coming up. Most, if not all, locations will be above freezing Sunday morning due to cloud cover and wind conditions. We’ve been watching Monday and Tuesday mornings for the last week and a half and it still appears mid to upper 20s are likely both mornings. Modified arctic air will be plunging southward Sunday which will begin to lower dew points. Even air temperatures Sunday will struggle to reach 50 degrees. Coldest locations, potentially, could lower down to 23 to 25 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Most locations will range between 27 and 31. The forecast for Wednesday morning is a big muddy, however cloud cover and a chance of showers should keep temperatures at least a bit above freezing. Upper 20s and lower 30s are possible Thursday and Friday mornings as well as skies clear behind a weak weather system moving through Wednesday and Wednesday.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella af | Porterville 32 | Ivanhoe 31 | Woodlake 33 |
| Strathmore 31 | McFarland 32 | Ducor af | Tea pot dome 32 |
| Lindsay 30 | Exeter 31 | Famoso 33 | Madera 32 |
| Belridge 30 | Delano 33 | North Bakersfield 33 | Orosi 31 |
| Orange cove 32 | Lindcove 30 | Lindcove Hillside af | Sanger river bottom 28 |
| Root creek 29 | Venice hill 31 | Rosedale 33 | Jasmine 32 |
| Arvin af | Lamont af | Plainview 31 | Mettler af |
| Edison af | Maricopa 32 | Holland creek af | Tivy Valley 31 |
| Kite Road South af | Kite Road North 31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .24, Parlier, .17, Arvin .26, Delano .21.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 53, Arvin 53, Delano 51
Average Temperatures: 54/37, Record Temperatures: 72/20
Heating Degree Days Season. 786 -319 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 1.24, Monthly .35
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 1.11, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature this Month 47.5 +1.5 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 470 Arvin, 415 Belridge, 419 Shafter, 457 Stratford, 438 Delano 475. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 7:12. Sunset, 4:57 hours of daylight, 9:45
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 58 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 53 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 52 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 53 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 54 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 53 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 50 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 51 / 39 / 0.00 /\
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 4.01 83 10.72 222 4.83 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 4.23 102 8.94 215 4.15 12.27
MERCED 0.00 3.29 85 7.01 182 3.86 11.80
MADERA 0.00 2.29 66 3.14 91 3.45 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.24 35 5.91 168 3.51 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.77 66 4.19 156 2.68 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 1.11 54 2.49 121 2.05 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.61 41 3.14 212 1.48 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.41 79 0.20 38 0.52 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 3.06 71 6.66 155 4.29 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.34 169 7.11 190 3.75 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.61 89 7.18 176 4.07 13.32
Next report: January 5 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.