Summary: There is still a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening with a slight chance through Saturday, but most locations will remain dry. Model information for Sunday shows a dynamite weather day. It’s very rare to see pressure as low as modeling suggests with a 965 millibar low just west of San Francisco Sunday morning. if the 965 reading is correct, putting it into tropical perspective, it would be a category 1 or 2 hurricane. If that’s not enough, a very juicy atmospheric river of air has central California in the bulls-eye for the potential for heavy rain and, of course, heavy snow in the high country. This will be a 3 day event with Sunday into Monday being the most active period. The colder sector of the low will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday with widespread showers and possibly more thunderstorm activity by Wednesday afternoon. Models diverge after Wednesday. Some show a cold low dropping southward out of the Gulf of Alaska, sliding down the coast Thursday through Friday for a chance of showers. Even though models are very inconsistent on the pattern for next weekend and beyond, if there’s any trend at all it’s’ that the storm track will finally be moving to our north.
Forecast, Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday. An increasing chance of rain again by late Saturday night. Rain likely at times Sunday through Tuesday night, possibly locally heavy at times Sunday and Monday. A chance of showers Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. A chance of showers Friday night through Saturday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 39/57/47/61 | Reedley 41/57/47/60 | Dinuba 38/56/46/60 |
| Porterville 39/57/47/61 | Lindsay 38/58/45/59 | Delano 42/57/48/62 |
| Bakersfield 44/58/49/62 | Taft 44/54/49/59 | Arvin 43/58/49/62 |
| Lamont 43/59/49/61 | Pixley 40/57/46/61 | Tulare 38/56/46/59 |
| Woodlake 39/57/47/59 | Hanford 42/58/48/60 | Orosi 38/57/46/58 |
Winds: All the necessary parameters are coming together for the likelihood of a high wind event, especially along the west side but most especially in Kern County. Huge differences in pressure are evident by Sunday morning between higher pressure over the Great Basin and unusually low pressure west of San Francisco. One model suggests 44 mph winds at Bakersfield, however 50 mph gusts would not be a surprise at all with this event. Winds will be mostly out of the southeast beginning late Saturday night, continuing into Sunday evening, winds along the east side of the valley will range from 20 to 35 mph with stronger gusts. Along the west side of Merced, Fresno, and Kings Counties, winds will increase to 20 to 35 mph with gusts possibly reaching 45 mph or more. The configuration for Sunday zeros in on Kern County. Winds could potentially average from 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 55 mph as far north as Bakersfield. The typically windy spots near the base of the mountains could see gusts to 70 mph. stronger gusts cannot be ruled out, especially during the day Sunday. By late Sunday night, winds will decrease to around 10 to 20 mph, continuing Monday with stronger gusts.
Rain: There is still a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours. From later tonight through Saturday, only a slight chance of showers exists. The chance of rain, heavy at times, will begin after midnight Saturday night with rain at times Sunday through Tuesday, locally heavy at times. Rainfall amounts between Sunday and Tuesday will be very difficult to nail down. Many times Pacific storms with high winds will come rain shadows on the valley sides of the mountains, including the Tehachapi Mountains. On the east side of the valley, 1 to 2 inches of rain is certainly possible. Over the valley portion of Kern County, one-half to one inch is anticipated with as much as an inch and a half along the western side of the valley. This three day storm should be put to bed by Tuesday evening, however it is possible a much weaker low out of the Gulf of Alaska will slide southward just off shore, keeping the chance of showers in the forecast for Thursday through Friday of next week. if my back was up against the wall, I would have to say a dry period will set up a week from tomorrow.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next week to ten days.