ummary: For those of you who have wind sensitive operations, read the wind summary below as a high wind event appears likely later Saturday night into Monday morning. Yesterday was another active weather day in central California. Isolated thunderstorms broke out yesterday afternoon and evening which really upped storm totals at some locations. Here are some totals as of 4:00am: Bakersfield .80, Delano .34, Porterville .38, Kettleman Hills .10, Tulare .76, Exeter .34, Visalia .75, Hanford .87, Lemoore .67, Del Rey 1.05, Fresno .72, Clovis .58, Madera .48, and Merced .80.
There are still light showers dotted around the valley this morning. satellite imagery depicts a popcorn appearance to the clouds off shore, meaning the air mass to our west is quite unstable. With freezing levels around 5,200 feet and daytime heating, isolated thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon and evening. We’ll finally get a short break in the action later Friday night through Saturday. Beginning later Saturday night, a powerful winter storm will pound the entire region with strong winds and potentially heavy rain. By midday Sunday, a 985 millibar surface low will be centered just west of San Francisco. Plenty of isobars show up on surface models, which indicate lines of equal pressure. What that means is significant differences in pressure will develop between Nevada and just off shore. The current configuration is one which historically results in impressive winds in the south valley and, to a lesser extent, the west side of the valley. Significant precipitation will accumulate from Sunday through late Tuesday. More often than not, storms with tremendous wind energy also generate significant rain shadows along the west side and in the south Valley. This system, along with its atmospheric river of air will move off to the east by early Tuesday. However, models are currently leaning towards a cold low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California next Tuesday and Wednesday for a chance of showers. A dry pattern is projected to set up a week from tomorrow.
Forecast: Periods of showers through this evening along with a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Partly to mostly cloudy later tonight. Partly cloudy Saturday through later Saturday evening. A chance of rain after midnight Saturday night. rain at times Sunday through Monday night. There is also a chance of isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon. A chance of showers Tuesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/39/57/47/61 | Reedley 58/40/57/47/60 | Dinuba 56/38/57/44/60 |
| Porterville 58/41/56/46/58 | Lindsay 57/39/56/45/58 | Delano 59/41/57/47/60 |
| Bakersfield 59/43/56/48/61 | Taft 54/47/49/46/57 | Arvin 59/42/57/48/62 |
| Lamont 58/42/58/49/63 | Pixley 57/39/57/45/61 | Tulare 57/38/56/45/58 |
| Woodlake 58/40/57/46/58 | Hanford 59/40/57/46/59 | Orosi 57/38/56/46/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday Rain likely 52/61 | Tuesday Rain likely 44/64 | Wednesday Chance of showers 40/58 | Thursday Chance of showers 37/58 | Friday Partly cloudy 37/56 |
Two Week Forecast: February 9 through February 15: For the first time in about two weeks, this model is pointing towards a dry weather pattern. This model also shows enough of a westerly flow to result in below average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally variable to around 15 mph through Saturday. Stronger gusts are possible near showers. A high wind event now appears likely for Saturday night into early Monday. a 985 millibar surface low shows up just west of the Golden Gate by midday Sunday with considerably higher pressure over Nevada and southern California. This sets up a very strong pressure gradient. It’s always a huge challenge to try to outguess Mother Nature in these situations. For now, it appears the west side of the valley will observe winds of 25 to 40 mph with gusts to near 50 possible from late Saturday night into early Monday morning. The real estate at greatest risk is the extreme south valley. Wind gusts to 70 mph are possible with stronger gusts not out of the question. These winds will work their way northward through Kern County. Wind gusts as strong at 50 mph are possible as far north as Bakersfield. More often than not, the Sierra Nevada acts as a buffer for Tulare County and many times results in light winds for Tulare County and that may be the case here. Winds will finally die off Monday down into the 10 to 20 mph range.
Rain: Periods of showers will continue through this evening. Isolated thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon through the early evening hours. We will then see a short break from later tonight into Saturday evening. On paper, this next storm, which arrives Saturday night and Sunday, is the strongest in the series. Widespread precipitation can be expected from Sunday through Tuesday. During the first part of this event, strong rain shadows are likely along the west side and in Kern County which greatly reduce the chance for significant rainfall amounts. Quantitative precipitation estimates, however, show as much as one and a half inches to two and a half along the east side north of Kern County. On the west side, anywhere from three quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter is likely with generally less than an inch over the valley portion of Kern County. Models also indicate a cold low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Wednesday and Thursday of next week for a renewed chance of mainly light showers. Models are pointing to a dry pattern setting up about a week from tomorrow.
Frost: All locations will remain above freezing for at least the next week to ten days.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .48, Parlier, .47, Arvin .58, Delano .52.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 57, Arvin NA, Delano 57
Average Temperatures: 58/39, Record Temperatures: 74/26
Heating Degree Days Season. 1161 -449 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno .3.50, Monthly .70
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.32, Monthly: .71
Average Temperature this Month 56.5 +8.5 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 663 Arvin, 589 Belridge, 579 Shafter, 636 Stratford, 642 Delano 658. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:59. Sunset, 5:26 hours of daylight, 10:24
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 60 / 44 / 0.20 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 61 / 46 / 0.24 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 60 / 48 / 0.64 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 64 / 50 / 0.70 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 63 / 45 / 0.59 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 64 / 48 / 0.78 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 60 / 48 / 0.68 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 63 / 46 / 0.35 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.33 7.73 106 15.50 213 7.26 13.45
MODESTO 0.58 8.97 138 13.43 207 6.48 12.27
MERCED 0.50 7.04 117 12.92 215 6.02 11.80
MADERA 0.32 4.52 85 4.86 91 5.33 10.79
FRESNO 0.55 3.35 61 9.20 169 5.45 10.99
HANFORD 0.27 3.25 80 6.81 169 4.04 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.59 3.20 103 4.32 138 3.12 6.36
BISHOP 0.18 0.87 35 8.57 344 2.49 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.82 94 0.39 45 0.87 2.20
SALINAS 0.06 5.14 77 8.97 134 6.70 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.70 10.09 162 12.82 206 6.23 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.75 5.78 88 13.35 204 6.54 13.32