Summary: The leading edge of the next atmospheric river of air is roughly 200 miles west of the southern and central California coast. We are literally in the bulls-eye of this event as a pineapple connection of tropical air feeds a rapidly intensifying low pressure system currently located about 450 miles to our west. Doppler radar is already detecting light showers along the coast which will move into the valley during the late afternoon to early evening hours. What will become a 970 millibar low pressure system will spawn powerful winds over much of California. If you’re into weather, this may be the 2024 Super Bowl as rarely do Pacific storms get much stronger than the current event. Southeast winds will begin tonight, increasing to 15 to 30 mph with stronger gusts by the early morning hours. Gusts to near 80 mph are possible Sunday in the extreme south valley, which is detailed below in the wind summary. This storm will be difficult to outguess rainfall amounts. It’s not that uncommon for strong rain shadows to develop along the valley facing slopes of the Coast Range, the Diablo Range, and the Kern County mountains. The River Forecast Center up in Sacramento is forecasting an inch to an inch and a half over much Tulare County and Kern County and an inch and a half to two inches over Fresno and Merced Counties. Somewhat lighter amounts are expected on the west side of the valley. In the nearby Sierra Nevada, four to six inches of rain is the projection north of Kern County and up to six to eight feet of new snow from 7,000 feet and above. All these estimates are for tonight through Tuesday night. the back side of this monster will not clear the Sierra Nevada until sometime late Tuesday or Tuesday evening. Models are hinting at a much weaker low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Thursday and Thursday night for a chance of light precipitation. models are still trending towards high pressure taking over this weekend for the beginning of a dry pattern which should last for several days.
Forecast: Rain at times through Monday night, locally heavy at times, with strong, gusty winds developing. Showers likely Tuesday. A chance of showers Wednesday, becoming likely Thursday. A slight chance of showers Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 50/63/49/62 | Reedley 51/63/48/62 | Dinuba 50/61/49/61 |
| Porterville 50/62/50/62 | Lindsay 49/62/50/62 | Delano 51/63/48/62 |
| Bakersfield 52/63/51/62 | Taft 51/57/52/57 | Arvin 53/63/51/62 |
| Lamont 52/62/50/62 | Pixley 49/63//49/63 | Tulare 49/61/50/60 |
| Woodlake 50/62/51/63 | Hanford 52/62/51/61 | Orosi 49/61/50/61 |
Winds; Winds through the early evening will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph.. after midnight, along the east side of the valley winds will increase out of the southeast at 12-25 mph with gusts to 45 mph.. along the west side, from after midnight tonight through late Sunday evening, winds will increase to 25-45 mph with gusts to 55 possible. In Kern County, winds will be fairly light through this evening. After midnight, winds will increase out of the east to southeast at 25 to 45 mph with gusts to55 possible. The typical wind prone problem spots, from after midnight tonight through Sunday evening, will see winds increase to 45 to 55 mph. Gusts to 80 mph are not out of the question at places such as the bottom of the Grapevine and Wheeler Ridge, Taft, and Belridge. Winds will decrease to 15 to 30 mph by late Sunday night and 8 to 15 mph Monday.
Rain: Light rain has already begun along the central coast and will begin to spread into the west side of the valley late this afternoon or early evening. Rain may become locally heavy at times late tonight through Monday night. showers will continue Tuesday with a possible break Wednesday. Another weaker system will move through Thursday through Thursday night for a chance of light showers. Some dry weather will finally be upon us this weekend. For the current storm, there are two possible scenarios for rainfall amount. On paper and modeling, by all rights we should receive from one to two and a half inches from this event between now and Tuesday. However, I’ve been fooled before by intense winter storms such as this one. There will be powerful downslope winds off the Tehachapis Sunday through Sunday night. downslope winds have a large drying effect to them and on occasion rob the south valley floor of significant precipitation. just the opposite effect holds true for the mountain areas as upsloping enhances rainfall amounts. Since this storm is so impressive looking, I’ll go for the wetter of the two scenarios.