February 18, 2024
Summary An intense Pacific storm is located roughly 450 miles off the northern California coast. A warm front extends southeastward along the central and southern California coast, and will spread precipitation over central California late this afternoon and this evening. Behind the warm front is a cold front which will move through Monday and Monday night. the National Severe Storms Center in Oklahoma has its eyes on the northern San Joaquin Valley and the lower Sacramento Valley due to a chance of severe thunderstorms from Madera County northward. Satellite imager is showing an atmospheric river of air extending from just east of Hawaii northeastward across the Pacific then inland into northern California. This AR will move southward overnight then will move southward over central California Monday and Monday night for the potential of significant rain on the valley floor and heavy rain in the mountains and foothills. Heavy snow can be expected above roughly 7,000 foot elevation Currently it appears the southern Sierra Nevada from Kern County north will pick up 2-4 feet of new snow above 7,000 feet and 4-6 inches of rain below the 6,000 foot elevation. Models for almost a week now have shown this system stalling off the northern California coast then cause heavy bands of moisture to pinwheel inland in the form of showers and thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday night. showers will continue at least for a time Wednesday then will finally begin to taper off by Wednesday evening. There will be some fairly significant differences in pressure between Nevada and the off shore low which will spawn some strong, gusty winds, mainly along the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County. A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will begin to move in from the Pacific Wednesday night and will dominate our weather through the weekend. Models had been hinting at a new low approaching the coast Sunday and Monday of next week for the possibility more rain. We’ll watch this closely.
Forecast: Rain at times through Tuesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Showers likely Wednesday, tapering off by early evening. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. mostly clear Tuesday through Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Sunday.
Temperatures: Lows tonight will range in the 50s. Highs Monday will warm into the 60s and into the 70s in the south valley. Lows Monday night will cool into the upper 40s to the lower 50s. highs Tuesday will warm into the mid to upper 60s.