February 28, 2024
Summary We remain under a weak ridge of high pressure this morning. Temperatures range from the upper 30s in Fresno and Merced Counties to the lower 50s in portions of the south valley where upslope clouds have refused to mix out. Drier air is moving into the San Joaquin Valley, however, so must if not all of this cloud cover will mix out by late morning. the high currently above California will give way Thursday to a very dynamic low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. It’s rare to have blizzard watches out for the southern Sierra Nevada, however as the bottom side of this trough moves into central California, it will cause the jet stream to flow to the south/southwest to a northeast trajectory. This is perfect set up for enhanced precipitation. The configuration will zap precipitation amounts for the southern and western side of the valley. As the air is lifted as it approaches the Sierra Nevada, anywhere from 4-6 inches of rain is possible along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. In all likelihood, rain will arrive in the San Joaquin Valley sometime Friday, although a few renegade showers could arrive sometime Wednesday night. Rain, at times, can be expected Friday through Saturday evening before this event begins to wind down sometime Saturday night with a few showers lingering in Kern County until sometime Sunday morning. If that weren’t enough, a new low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska, arriving around Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week. A few models show the signature of a full blown winter storm, although not quite as strong as the upcoming system.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with a chance of rain from Merced County north. Rain likely at times Friday night through Saturday evening, possibly locally heavy at time along the east side north of Kern County. Showers tapering off late Saturday night. mostly to partly cloudy Sunday with a few lingering showers for a time Sunday morning. partly cloudy Monday. increasing cloudiness Monday night with a chance of rain again Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/41/68/47/63 | Reedley 71/43/68/49/63 | Dinuba 68/41/68/49/62 |
| Porterville 72/42/68/50/63 | Lindsay 71/40/68/48/62 | Delano 72/44/68/49/63 |
| Bakersfield 73/49/70/49/65 | Taft 68/51/66/50/59 | Arvin 72/44/68/48/64 |
| Lamont 72/45/70/50/63 | Pixley 70/44/68/48/63 | Tulare 68/41/68/48/62 |
| Woodlake 69/41/68/48/61 | Hanford 70/42/68/49/63 | Orosi 69/41/68/48/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday Rain likely 48/63 | Sunday Lingering showers 40/58 | Monday Partly cloudy 45/58 | Tuesday Increasing clouds 38/60 | Wednesday Rain likely 41/63 |
Two Week Forecast: March 6 through March 12: This model has flip flopped from previous model runs. It now indicates there’s about a 40% chance of above average precipitation. Temperatures during this period will range below average.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds through tonight will be generally less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Thursday will be out of the southeast at around 5 to 12 mph. Southeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph through Friday night. winds Saturday will be mainly out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain: Rain will spread as far south as Merced County by around midnight Thursday night. rain will spread over the rest of the valley Friday. Rain can be expected at times Friday night through Saturday night, tapering off after the late evening hours. Lingering showers are possible for a time Sunday morning, otherwise dry conditions will prevail. Rainfall amounts along the eastern sector of the valley from late Thursday night through Saturday night will generally range from a half inch to one inch. However, one and a half inches are possible over mainly Madera and Merced Counties. The west side and Kern County will be toughing it out with a rain shadow. Even so, one quarter inch to one half inch is possible. Dry weather will return Sunday and will last through at least Monday. it appears another major winter storm will arrive Tuesday night or Wednesday. Some of the models are impressive with this system, as well, so obviously this winter is far from over.
Frost: The chance for fairly local frost early next week appears somewhat reduced now, mainly because of a narrowing window of opportunity Monday and Tuesday. We will see a great deal of residual and upslope clouds Sunday through Monday and possibly incoming clouds from the next system which is due later Tuesday and Wednesday. So it appears this very active weather pattern will preclude any frost threat with the possible exception of Monday morning. Under ideal conditions, readings could fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s in isolated locations.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid 40s to near 50.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .59, Parlier, .66, Arvin .60, Delano .65.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 56, Arvin NA, Delano 58
Average Temperatures: 64/42, Record Temperatures: 83/28
Heating Degree Days Season. 1456 -518 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 6.16, Monthly 3.36
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.83, Monthly: 2.22
Average Temperature this Month 53.5 +2.7 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 787 Arvin, 687 Belridge, 687 Shafter, 741 Stratford, 768 Delano 780. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:30. Sunset, 5:53 hours of daylight, 11:20
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 64 / 38 / T /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 65 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 64 / 42 / T /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 64 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 61 / 54 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 64 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 65 / 46 / T /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.00 9.89 103 17.15 179 9.59 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.05 153 15.12 177 8.55 12.27
MERCED T 10.46 130 15.01 186 8.07 11.80
MADERA 0.00 6.91 96 7.08 99 7.18 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.16 85 13.03 180 7.25 10.99
HANFORD T 5.97 111 10.30 191 5.39 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 4.83 114 6.59 156 4.22 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.09 123 9.70 292 3.32 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 2.38 176 0.88 65 1.35 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.40 105 10.11 113 8.95 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.98 164 15.52 182 8.54 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.93 119 16.81 183 9.20 13.32