February 29, 2024
Summary An intensifying low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska is digging a trough south /southeast to off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Currently, a strong cold front is in western Oregon and northwest California then southwest out over the ocean. Doppler radar is showing precipitation spreading over the northern Sacramento Valley. The trough will continue to move south/southeast into central California by this evening. There’s a chance of rain as far south as Fresno County by late afternoon then southward over the rest of the valley this evening. This may turn out to be the premier event this winter for the Sierra Nevada as precipitation amount estimates continue to indicate incredibly heavy amounts of snow. Possibly six to eight feet of new snow could fall over the higher elevations with as much as two feet down to the 4,000 foot elevation. The east side of the San Joaquin Valley north of Kern County may pick up between an inch and an inch and a half of rain with four to six inches possible over the foothill regions. Rain will continue at times through Saturday night with a chance of showers lingering into Sunday morning. By Sunday evening, dry weather will finally return. It still appears temperatures will fall into the 30s Monday and Tuesday mornings but no frost or freeze event is anticipated. The next storm up system is much weaker but will result in a chance of light showers next Wednesday and Thursday. Longer range models continue to show an active pattern for the west.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy for a time this morning. increasing cloudiness later today. Rain at times tonight through Saturday night, possibly locally heavy north of Kern County. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Saturday afternoons. A chance of showers Sunday morning, becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. partly to mostly cloudy Monday morning in Kern and Tulare Counties, otherwise it will be mostly clear. Partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night. a chance of showers Wednesday, continuing Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/48/62/48/58 | Reedley 68/49/62/50/59 | Dinuba 66/48/61/48/58 |
| Porterville 69/50/63/51/58 | Lindsay 68/48/62/49/59 | Delano 69/51/63/51/60 |
| Bakersfield 70/52/63/50/60 | Taft 66/51/60/51/58 | Arvin 70/52/62/50/59 |
| Lamont 71/50/62/50/59 | Pixley 67/48/62/48/58 | Tulare 66/47/62/42/58 |
| Woodlake 67/47/62/48/59 | Hanford 68/50/62/50/60 | Orosi 68/47/62/47/58 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday Rain likely 44/58 | Monday Partly cloudy 36/58 | Tuesday Increasing clouds 37/59 | Wednesday Chance of showers 41/61 | Thursday Chance of showers 41/61 |
Two Week Forecast: March 7 through March 13: This model has flip flopped from previous model runs. It now indicates there’s about a 40% chance of above average precipitation. Temperatures during this period will range below average.
Thirty Day Report: This model depicts temperatures near to marginally above average during this time frame. A good chance of above average precipitation will continue through the month as the El Nino pattern continues.
Ninety Day Report: This model favors the storm track being much further south than in most years, resulting in above average precipitation. temperatures on this model are also negligibly above average.
Winds: Winds today will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph.. Winds tonight and Friday will continue to be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Friday night through Saturday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph with local gusts to near 30. Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph, diminishing during the evening.
Rain: The chance of rain will spread as far south as Merced County by evening, spreading as far south as Fresno County by midnight. Rain will spread over the remainder of the valley during the predawn hours. This will be a slow moving storm so expect rain anytime from Friday through Saturday night with a chance of showers Sunday morning, mainly in Kern County. Rainfall amounts will vary widely due to rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County. Amounts in western Fresno and much of Kings County will generally range from one-quarter to one-half inch. Locally more is possible, especially in eastern Kings County. Along the east side, east of Highway 99, expect amounts from three-quarters of an inch to an inch and a third with highest amounts in Madera and Merced Counties. As usual, Kern County will be under a strong rain shadow with this event so expect amounts over the valley portion of Kern County to be roughly one-quarter to one-third of an inch with locally more. Dry weather will return by Sunday afternoon. Another chance of showers will turn up Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will pale in comparison to the current storm, however, so for now just light amounts can be anticipated.
Frost: Temperatures will no doubt chill into the 30s Monday and Tuesday mornings. Under ideal chilling conditions, river bottom locations could potentially could lower to 30 to 32 degrees with a slight chance of upper 20s. Looking at it realistically, most locations will lower to no more than 34 to 38. The next weather system will arrive Wednesday. Even though this system is not especially strong, cloud cover and other parameters will keep conditions above freezing. Although we are entering into a period of below average temperatures, I don’t see anything that would result in below freezing temperatures.
Mid afternoon dew points: Mid 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid 40s to near 50.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .62, Parlier, .68, Arvin .65, Delano .70.
Soil temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 57, Arvin NA, Delano 57
Average Temperatures: 65/42, Record Temperatures: 77/30
Heating Degree Days Season. 1466 -519 varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 6.16, Monthly 3.36
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.83, Monthly: 2.22
Average Temperature this Month 53.6 +2.6 taken at NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Parlier, 787 Arvin, 687 Belridge, 687 Shafter, 741 Stratford, 768 Delano 780. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise, 6:29. Sunset, 5:54 hours of daylight, 11:23
NA=Not available
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 68 / 44 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 70 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 71 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 70 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 71 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 71 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 73 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr 2024 % l.y. % ave Yearly ave
STOCKTON 0.00 9.89 102 17.50 181 9.67 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.05 151 15.39 179 8.62 12.27
MERCED 0.00 10.46 129 15.69 193 8.14 11.80
MADERA 0.00 6.91 95 7.72 106 7.25 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.16 84 13.48 184 7.31 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 5.97 110 10.55 194 5.44 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.83 113 6.76 159 4.26 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.09 122 9.70 290 3.35 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 2.38 174 0.88 64 1.37 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.40 104 10.59 117 9.03 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.98 162 15.67 182 8.63 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.93 118 17.13 184 9.30 13.32