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March 4, 2024 afternoon report

March 3, 2024

Summary:  A weak zone of upper level high pressure now covers the eastern Pacific Ocean off the California coast and extends inland over California and into the Great Basin. The storm that resulted in all the wild weather yesterday has moved into the northern Rockies and continues to pull away from central California. The next area of low pressure will be off the California coast Tuesday night then will move southward, parallel to the coast. This is quite a weak system. Its closest encounter with central California will be Wednesday as the low passes roughly 300 miles west of Santa Maria Wednesday morning. it’s quite possible this weak system will remain far enough off shore to leave the valley high and dry. Even if precipitation does occur, amounts of no more than .10 can be expected. The low will move through southern California Thursday, allowing the ridge to build north/northeast with the northern portion of this high bulging into the Pacific Northwest. Upper level high pressure will be in charge of the weather through the weekend. A weak, narrow trough of low pressure will move through California Saturday and Saturday night. This feature appears to be too weak for active weather. Our next chance of measurable rain appears to be around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. by Tuesday morning, a trough will extend from British Columbia to central California. This far out, it’s unclear how far south active weather will occur. At this time, it appears there will be a possibility of showers as far south as Kern County around Monday night or Tuesday morning.

Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy tonight, clearing after midnight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. aA small chance of light showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday night. Mostly clear Sunday through Monday.  

Short Term:                                                                                                                

Madera 37/64/42/64Reedley 36/63/42/65Dinuba 35/64/41/64
Porterville 36/65/41/65Lindsay 34/64/41/65Delano 38/65/42/65
Bakersfield 42/65/44/66Taft 46/60/46/59Arvin 41/65/43/66
Lamont 40/64/42/65Pixley 37/64/37/65Tulare 34/63/41/64
Woodlake 36/64/40/64Hanford 38/65/41/64Orosi 34/64/40/64

Winds: Winds will be variable to no more than eight miles per hour through Thursday with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours

Rain: The next chance of rain, small as it may be, will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night from a weak low moving southward off shore. The best chance of measurable rain will be along the west side. The low will move through southern California Thursday, putting any additional rain out of the forecast. Dry weather will prevail Thursday night through at least Monday. Models show another trough of low pressure moving through northern and central California Monday night and Tuesday of next week. The chance of rain looks legitimate from Fresno County north. We’ll use the word “chance” to describe central valley’s opportunity for measurable rain. After Tuesday of next week, it appears the storm track will be deflected to our north for  several days, resulting in a period of dry weather.

Frost: Coldest locations tonight with generally clear skies and no wind could potentially drop to 33 to 35 degrees. It’s possible isolated cold pockets could briefly reach 31-32 degrees for short durations. After tonight, all locations will be above freezing for the remainder of the week. there’s nothing to suggest a particularly cold pattern in the longer term. We can look forward to safe conditions longer term.