October 9, 2018
Summary: An extensive trough of low pressure covers the western United States with the main core of the trough over the Rocky Mountain region. In the meantime, a large upper high continues to dominate the central and eastern Pacific Ocean with California just to the east of the main influence of this high. The squeeze play between these two systems has the winds aloft out of the north. A couple of weak impulses of low pressure will dive into the interior west. The first one will move through Wednesday followed closely by another on Thursday. This may actually result in a chance of some light showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
Temperatures this afternoon will average in the low 80s this afternoon which is close to seasonal then pull back a few degrees Thursday and Friday. We should enjoy a push of marine air down the valley later Wednesday afternoon and at times through Thursday. Already today, the marine layer has jumped about 1,200 feet over the past 12 to 18 hours.
Tropical storm Sergio will move into northcentral Baja late Thursday into Friday. Models are pretty consistent now in showing the moisture from Sergio remaining to our south and southeast. In fact, this tropical juice more than likely will avoid California altogether, moving into Arizona and New Mexico.
Over the weekend, upper level high pressure will begin to dominate the western states, as well. Mother Nature is throwing just a little bit of a curve ball in the possible formation of a weak cut off low, possibly off the central coast. Currently, no model is suggesting precipitation from this feature, but these cut off lows are tricky so it’s just something to keep an eye on over the weekend. Even with the low, temperatures will rise above average over the weekend and will remain there for much of next week. Of interest also is the fact that some models are picking up on the possibility of another tropical storm developing and possibly moving up the Baja coast, curving inland through central Baja. This would theoretically mean California will be left alone as the winds aloft will be out of the west. This would efficiently keep any tropical moisture well to our south.
As we look out two weeks, it still looks like high pressure will dominate our pattern with little, if any, chance of precipitation with dry weather continuing.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 82/48/79/47/77 | Reedley 82/48/80/47/78 | Dinuba 81/47/79/47/77 | |
| Porterville 82/48/80/48/78 | Lindsay 83/47/80/48/78 | Delano 83/50/80/49/79 | |
| Bakersfield 82/57/81/57/78 | Taft 82/61/81/57/78 | Arvin 83/51/81/50/77 | |
| Lamont 83/55/81/52/78 | Pixley 83/48/80/49/79 | Tulare 81/47/80/46/77 | |
| Woodlake 82/48/81/49/79 | Hanford 82/49/80/50/78 | Orosi 81/47/80/47/77 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 50/81 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 51/83 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 50/84 |
Monday
Mostly clear 49/82 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 49/84 |
Two Week Outlook: October 16 through October 22: Upper level high pressure will take over the eastern Pacific and western North America during this time frame. This will result in above average temperatures with little, if any, chance of precipitation.
October: This model is indicating an above average chance of precipitation through roughly southern California. The Pacific Northwest appears fairly dry, considering the time of year, especially. We actually have a chance of below average temperatures during the month.
October, November, December: It is typical for the 90 day forecast to be put out with above average temperatures for the time frame and this is certainly no exception. There is no real persistent pattern to hang your hat on for now, so it would appear precipitation will be about average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry weather indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Visalia: 30%/90% Bakersfield: 25%/65%
Actual Humidity October 8, 2018: Delano, 97%/25%, Porterville, 95%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 0.99, Parlier 0.91, Blackwell 1.07, Lindcove 0.82, Arvin 1.12, Orange Cove 0.94, Porterville 0.91, Delano 0.96, Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 70, Parlier 72, Blackwell 78, Lindcove, 73, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 70, Porterville 76, Delano 69
Record Temperatures: 98/39. Average Temperatures: 83/53
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 2093 +473
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 69.2 +1.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or +0.01 Month to Date: .10 +.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.04. Month to Date: .00 -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:02 am Sunset: 6:29 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:28
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 82 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 80 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 82 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 82 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 83 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 52 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 80 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 82 / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 82 / 59 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 81 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
Year % Last Y. % Ave. Annual ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 1067 0.00 0 0.12 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 9 0.00 0 0.11 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.08 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.07 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 111 0.00 0 0.09 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 80 0.00 0 0.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.04 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 571 0.00 0 0.07 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 670 0.00 0 0.10 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 30 0.00 0 0.10 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 438 0.00 0 0.08 13.95
Next report: Wednesday, October 10