November 8, 2018
Summary: Surface high pressure is quickly increasing in strength over the Great Basin. Tonight through Friday morning, barometric pressure will be considerably higher over the interior west than they will be off shore, generating the typical Santa Ana winds over the Kern County mountains and the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County. Winds have picked up some along the west side of the valley. At last report, Kettleman had winds out of the north/northwest at 15 MPH, gusting to 22 while at the Lemoore Naval Air Station winds were out of the northwest sustained at 15. Air temperatures are anywhere from 6 to 8 degrees lower than 24 hours ago while dew points are 6 to 11 degrees cooler. The main key for tonight’s forecast, as well as the forecast for the weekend, is how much dry air will mix down to the valley floor. Most locations have dew points ranging in the upper 20s to the mid 30s with lower readings coming out of the west side and in portions of Kern County, as expected. As of 1:00pm, the Santa Ana winds had not worked down to the valley floor. However, gusts of 30 to 40 MPH were common over the Kern County mountains and it’s still possible some of these winds could make it down to the valley floor there. More on all of this in the wind and frost discussions below.
Another brief northerly flow aloft will develop Sunday and Sunday night around the eastern portion of high pressure off shore which by Monday will build all the way into northwest Canada. Winterlike air will invade the Rockies and Midwest while the west coast will be protected from anything resembling cloud cover. More of a zonal flow will set up Wednesday and beyond into the Pacific Northwest, allowing Pacific storms to enter the picture, but north of the California border. However, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will remain off the California coast, ensuring precipitation gets nowhere near our region for the foreseeable future.
The new two week outlook this afternoon gives a minor chance of rain, even though precipitation is unlikely between the 16 and the 22, at least it’s not completely impossible and perhaps there’s hope.
Forecast: It will be mostly clear through Saturday. Generally clear skies will continue Saturday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 30/71/29/71 | Reedley 34/70/31/71 | Dinuba 31/69/30/72 | |
| Porterville 34/72/32/71 | Lindsay 31/71/30/71 | Delano 36/73/34/73 | |
| Bakersfield 45/75/41/73 | Arvin 43/76/41/74 | Taft 48/73/43/73 | |
| Lamont 43/75/40/74 | Pixley 34/70/32/71 | Tulare 30/70/29/71 | |
| Woodlake 33/70/31/71 | Hanford 35/72/32/71 | Orosi 33/70/31/71 | |
Winds: As of 1:00PM, winds had not progressed down to the valley floor. Strongest pressure differences will be from tonight until roughly midmorning Friday . this will be the time of greatest risk for Santa Ana winds, even though this possibility is still no more than about 30% or so. If these winds do occur in Kern County, 30 to 40 MPH gusts cannot be ruled out, possibly stronger at places like the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine. There have been some locally gusty winds along the far west side with winds gusting to 22 MPH at Kettleman Hills and sustained at 15 at Lemoore. Winds remain very light elsewhere.
Away from the Interstate 5 corridor and north of the Kern County line, expect winds of generally less than 7 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost Information: As of 1:00pm, air temperatures were running 6 to 8 degrees cooler than 24 hours while dew points were down 6 to 11 degrees. A few locations in Fresno and Madera Counties dipped into the lower 30s last night where dew points were a little lower. Considering significant differences in temperatures and dew points leading into tonight, we will see a number of locations at or marginally below freezing. That same rule of thumb will apply Saturday and Sunday, as well. All of this is contingent upon more dry air mixing down from above. Temperatures in Kern County could actually jump up if the Santa Ana winds make it down to the valley floor, but for the frost section I’ll assume that won’t occur with colder temperatures there, as well, even though, most locations in Kern County will remain above freezing.
The strong off shore flow underway will decrease Friday afternoon with the Santa Anas coming to a halt Friday night through Saturday night. Another brief round of those winds will occur Sunday and, it’s possible, another brief round of dry air may enter the picture, maintaining chilly overnight lows the first half of next week. Only the coldest locations will dip into the lower 30s at that point. By the time the middle of next week rolls around, the flow aloft will become west to east, theoretically nudging dew points up enough to take the chance of frost out of the forecast.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
33 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland | Ducor | Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso | Madera
29 |
| Belridge | Delano | North Bakersfield | Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale | Jasmine |
| Arvin | Lamont | Plainview
33 |
Mettler |
| Edison | Maricopa | Holland Creek | Tivy Valley |
| Kite Road South | Kite Road North |
AF=Above Freezing
Next Report: Friday morning, November 9