November 29, 2018
Summary: The center of circulation of a deep low pressure system both at the surface and aloft is making its move on northern California. Rainfall amounts already have pushed one inch on the valley floor, mainly in Madera and Fresno Counties. The subtropical rain band which was overhead yesterday and for a time last night has now moved into southern California. From this point on, there will be on and off showers and once the daytime heating process gets underway, there will be a chance of locally heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, lasting into tonight. So far, the winds in most areas have not been overly excessive. In Kern County, winds are generally less than 25 MPH at most locations. So if the winds are going to have to get cranked up, it will be over the next couple of hours. The threat will end later this morning as the low by then will be in northern California and will rapidly reduce pressure differences between the northern California low and the interior west.
A strong north/northwest flow will continue through Friday. The lifting action of mountain ranges is such that showers will have no problem developing along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. The valley floor, however, will only have a minimal chance of showers Friday.
Friday night into early Saturday will be dry. The next low will then drop out of the Gulf of Alaska with its low center dropping into northwest Nevada by midday Saturday. Showers will again spread over the region with lowering snow levels. Showers will continue through Saturday night and possibly into Sunday morning, especially over the Sierra.
A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west temporarily Sunday afternoon through Monday night for another shot at dry weather. This could change as early as Tuesday as a lower latitude Pacific storm approaches the northern California coast. Some models show this model moving southward parallel to the central coast Wednesday and Thursday. If this turns out to be the case, bands of rain would move in from the west, wrapping around the low itself.
By Thursday night and Friday, this feature should be moving through southern California with a few days of dry weather thereafter.
Forecast: Periods of showers today and tonight with a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A small chance of light showers Friday, mainly over the foothills. Partly cloudy Friday night with areas of fog forming after midnight. Increasing cloudiness Saturday with showers becoming likely by midday, continuing through Saturday night. Lingering showers are possible for a time Sunday morning. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday night with areas of fog and low clouds possible Monday and Tuesday mornings. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a small chance of showers during the afternoon. Periods of rain possible Tuesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/50/57/42/54 | Reedley 59/49/58/41/55 | Dinuba 58/48/57/41/53 | |
| Porterville 59/50/58/42/54 | Lindsay 60/48/58/40/55 | Delano 60/50/58/43/55 | |
| Bakersfield 62/51/58/46/57 | Taft 62/50/59/48/57 | Arvin 63/48/59/45/57 | |
| Lamont 60/50/58/44/54 | Pixley 60/49/57/42/55 | Tulare 58/48/58/40/54 | |
| Woodlake 58/49/58/41/55 | Hanford 58/50/58/42/54 | Orosi 59/49/58/41/54 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Am showers possible 38/58 |
Monday
AM fog/partly cloudy 34/56 |
Tuesday
PM showers possible 43/63 |
Wednesday
Periods of rain 48/61 |
Thursday
Periods of rain 48/60 |
Two Week Outlook: December 6 through December 12: This model shows a possible wide area of low pressure over the interior west with possibly a northwest flow into California. This would bring marginally below average temperatures. Precipitation during this time frame appears to be marginally likely.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds, mainly from Fresno County north, have been in the 15 to 25 MPH range out of the southeast overnight with gusts to 35. So far, the real strong winds have not materialized. If it’s going to happen, it would be over the next few hours as the center of the low pressure system is just northwest of San Francisco. Later this morning, as the low moves into the northern half of the state, pressure differences will quickly be reduced for lighter winds. Winds this afternoon through Friday will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15MPH with stronger gusts, especially in the vicinity of showers or thunderstorms. Winds Friday through Sunday will continue to be southeasterly at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts at times.
Rain: The following is a sample of rainfall amounts. Some are just through midnight while others are more current. Fresno .98, Madera .85, Porterville .22, Orange Cove .87, Lindcove .37, Parlier .76, Stratford .43, Bakersfield .24.
Rainfall amounts from this point on will vary considerably as the precipitation pattern will be more showery. Already this morning, a strong rain shadow developed over Kern County as well as along the west side of the valley. In fact, the shadow extends almost all the way to the base of the Sierra Nevada. However, upsloping along the Sierra and the Tehachapis is producing a continuation of moderate to heavy rain. Models continue to show quite good dynamics in the atmosphere. This, once daytime heating gets revved up, will allow for the possible formation of thunderstorms, which could be locally heavy at times. A moist westerly flow will continue into central California tonight with showers continuing. Even on Friday, a strong west/northwest flow will continue aloft, keeping upslope showers going. However, there will only be a minimal chance of showers on the valley floor Friday as that same rain shadow continues.
Friday night and early Saturday will be dry. A cold low will drop southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northwest Nevada Saturday. This will spread showers over the valley again Saturday afternoon and night, lingering into Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday will be dry. There will be a minimal chance of rain later Tuesday as another lower latitude storm approaches the northern California coast. The low will then slide southward just off shore, theoretically pushing bands of rain in from time to time Wednesday through Thursday. A few days of dry weather shows up on paper for Friday through next weekend.
Frost Discussion: The next chance for local frost will be Monday morning as relatively cold air moves into central California behind a storm system. For now, this appears to be a low to mid 30s event Monday morning and possibly Tuesday morning. Many locations will no doubt remain at least slightly above freezing due to a soaking wet valley floor and abundant lingering cloud cover. Higher clouds will begin to increase Tuesday with a chance of rain in the afternoon. This lower latitude storm will produce periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday, maintaining above freezing conditions. Medium range models do not indicate a pattern that would result in particularly cold weather.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 75%/90%, Bakersfield: 60%/85%
Actual Humidity November 28, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/82%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .35, Parlier .27, Blackwell .42, Lindcove .30, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .31, Porterville .29, Delano .34 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 58, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 61, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 59, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 76/26. Average Temperatures: 59/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 304 -157
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 55.1 +2.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.50 season. or -.12, Month to Date: 1.40 +.41
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .46, or -.43. Month to Date: .46 -.13
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 146, Parlier, 191 , Arvin, 129 Shafter, 189 Stratford, 166, Delano 171, Lindcove, 156, Porterville, 242
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:52 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:52
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 57 / 0.85 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 55 / 0.80 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 52 / 0.39 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1500 / M / M / M /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 50 / 0.05 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 56 / 0.23 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 57 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 49 / 0.11 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1500 / 63 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 50 / 0.14 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.12 2.64 111 0.91 38 2.38 14.06
MODESTO 0.11 0.97 50 0.98 51 1.93 13.11
MERCED 0.57 1.30 68 1.03 54 1.92 12.50
MADERA 0.81 1.43 73 0.32 16 1.96 12.02
FRESNO 0.80 1.40 86 0.37 23 1.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.39 0.73 50 0.37 25 1.46 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.05 0.39 44 0.03 3 0.89 6.47
BISHOP 0.14 0.55 71 0.16 21 0.78 5.18
SALINAS 0.52 2.37 127 0.75 40 1.87 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.35 0.77 49 0.25 16 1.57 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.12 0.69 38 0.09 5 1.83 13.95
Next report: Thursday, November 29/pm