January 9, 2019
Summary: Light precipitation is occurring north on a line from Santa Maria along the coast and Visalia inland. Precipitation amounts in central California have been quite light, generally less than .10 on the valley floor. Right along Highway 1, from Big Sur southward, Three Peaks received 1.93, Big Sur .93, and a place called Mining Ridge has recorded 2.41. Watching radar over the past few hours, the west side has been under quite a rain shadow with the lion’s share of the rain on the east side of the valley from Fresno northward. This storm will slowly move inland today through this evening with periods of light rain.
The rain shadow will continue along the west side of the valley and, of course, over Kern County where no measurable precipitation has been totaled so far. This storm will move southeastward out of our region by late this evening. Dry weather will begin Thursday and last through Friday courtesy of a weak ridge of high pressure.
Most of the models favor a new storm approaching the central coast Saturday. There are models that show the low remaining too far off shore for rain to affect the valley, however others continue to show a coastal hugger with precipitation spreading over the entire region. As soon as this system moves through southern California, a new low will approach the coast Sunday. This system appears stronger and will spread precipitation over the region again Sunday into Monday. Some models actually show this low just parking off shore for 48 hours, pinwheeling bands of showers inland over central California.
By mid-week, we’ll have a strong westerly flow in the upper atmosphere with the possibility of ripples of low pressure moving through this flow and into California from time to time. The bottom line is, this weekend and beyond will have periods of storminess coupled with episodes of dry spells through probably Friday of next week.
The two week model also points to a favorable pattern for precipitation the following week.
Forecast: Periods of light rain, mainly north of Kern County, through this evening. Partly to mostly cloudy later tonight through Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night with a chance of rain after midnight. Periods of rain Saturday. A chance of rain at any given time from Saturday night through Wednesday with periods of dry weather.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/48/59/41/61 | Reedley 60/49/58/42/61 | Dinuba 59/47/58/41/60 | |
| Porterville 62/48/62/41/63 | Lindsay 63/45/58/41/61 | Delano 62/48/61/42/64 | |
| Bakersfield 65/49/62/46/58 | Taft 64/50/62/46/61 | Arvin 65/46/62/43/68 | |
| Lamont 63/47/62/43/67 | Pixley 62/45/58/41/62 | Tulare 60/;43/60/40/60 | |
| Woodlake 61/45/61/48/62 | Hanford 61/45/60/41/60 | Orosi 61/42/58/42/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Showers likely 45/61 |
Sunday
Chance of rain 45/60 |
Monday
Rain likely 42/58 |
Tuesday
Chance of rain 45/60 |
Wednesday
Chance of rain 43/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 14 through January 20: This model continues to indicate above average precipitation during this period, especially over the southern half of California and the Desert Southwest. Generally speaking, the flow aloft during this period will be out of the west or southwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds today will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds Thursday will be generally less than 10 MPH at most locations with periods of near calm conditions. For the period of late Thursday night through Friday, there’s a chance of another round of strong, gusty winds near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. These winds may actually be more out of the east than the southeast as a surface low approaches the coast. Winds in the 20 to 35 MPH are possible in portions of Kern County, especially near the base of the mountains. If these winds occur, they should die off Friday night. winds Saturday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH over most of the valley.
Rain: Light rain is currently falling from a Visalia/Tulare line north. This band of precipitation is slowly working its way southeastward so Kern County should see some light showers before this event is over. Rain shadows have been a big time problem. This system should slide to our east and southeast by midnight. Somewhere around a quarter of an inch of rain is possible in Fresno and Madera Counties, .20 or so in Kings and Tulare Counties and generally less than .10 over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will prevail Thursday through Friday then the next system will approach the central coast Friday into Saturday. Models are inconclusive on how to handle this low. One of the main forecast models shows rain only moving into the coastal mountain areas, but not into the valley. Other models show it moving close enough to the coast for precipitation to affect the entire region. A new storm will arrive Sunday. This one appears stronger, spreading rain over the entire areas Sunday into Monday. From Tuesday on, it looks like there will be periods of precipitation. There will be a chance of rain during any time through the entire week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and will be above freezing through the coming week and more than likely beyond.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 75%/95%, Bakersfield: 55%/90%
Actual Humidity January 8, 2019: Delano, 98%/51% Porterville, 95%/50%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 40% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .30, Parlier .32, Blackwell .42, Lindcove .30, Arvin .48, Orange Cove .32, Porterville .NA, Delano .37 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 48, Blackwell 50, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 48, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 70/23. Average Temperatures: 54/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 970 -330
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 46.4 +2.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 3.19 season. or -.85, Month to Date: .86 +.29
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.46, or -.80. Month to Date: .16 -.14
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 473, Parlier, 499 , Arvin, 422 Shafter, 519 Stratford, 481, Delano 490, Lindcove, 693, Porterville, 907
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 5:01 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 52 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 65 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 70 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 65 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 57 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 68 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 6.92 128 2.81 52 5.39 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.97 106 2.46 52 4.70 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.81 110 1.49 34 4.36 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.54 77 0.93 20 4.59 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.19 79 0.89 22 4.04 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.39 61 1.10 28 3.90 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.46 65 0.13 6 2.26 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.58 81 0.16 8 1.95 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.08 112 1.72 38 4.54 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 4.43 102 1.04 24 4.34 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 3.76 80 0.57 12 4.72 13.95
Next report: Wednesday afternoon, January 9