January 17, 2019
Summary: The cold frontal portion of this event moved through the valley last night with very heavy rain for a short time at most locations. That front is now draped over Kern County where moderate to heavy rain is still occurring. Porterville, between 2:00 and 3:00am, picked up .37 and Bakersfield .21 in one hour, which is not historic, but pretty impressive by Bakersfield standards. Heavy precipitation is now occurring over the Kern County mountains and as far south as the Los Angeles basin. Very impressive amounts of precipitation occurred over the Sierra Nevada. So far, Wishon Dam has picked up 3.43 and Chilikoot Meadow has received 4.72. Rain and snow continue along the Sierra Nevada due to a powerful jet stream and the lifting forces of the mountains.
The remainder of this event will be showery. There’s enough dynamics behind the front to possibly result in some thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but the heaviest precipitation is now over, although the Sierra Nevada will continue to receive heavy rain and snow on the highest elevation.
The heaviest rain over the past 24 hours occurred between Big Sur and Cambria where Three Peaks received 5.64 and Mining Ridge 6.18. the chance of rain will begin to diminish later this evening, ending by late tonight with the possible exception of the Kern County mountains. High pressure will begin to expand over California during the weekend for a return to dry weather.
A weak low will rapidly move through northern California Sunday night and early Monday for a small chance of light showers. Beyond Monday morning, however, it appears a massive ridge of upper level high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western United States while period bursts of arctic air plunge into the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.
Forecast: Showers today with a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Showers this evening, diminishing overnight with dry weather by sunrise. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds each morning. A small chance of light showers Sunday night and early Monday morning. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon. Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday with potentially widespread night and morning fog, possibly lasting through the day in some areas.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/43/58/40/60 | Reedley 61/44/59/39/61 | Dinuba 59/42/57/39/60 | |
| Porterville 61/43/58/40/62 | Lindsay 62/42/58/39/62 | Delano 63/45/60/43/63 | |
| Bakersfield 63/48/61/44/64 | Taft 62/51/61/48/63 | Arvin 63/49/61/44/64 | |
| Lamont 62/49/61/44/64 | Pixley 62/44/58/40/62 | Tulare 60/43/58/39/61 | |
| Woodlake 60/43/58/38/61 | Hanford 61/43/58/40/60 | Orosi 60/42/58/40/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Slight chance of showers 43/62 |
Monday
Slight chance of AM showers 43/59 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 36/60 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 38/56 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 40/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 24 through January 30: This model indicates well below average temperatures over roughly 90% of the lower 48. The exception is western California which is predicted to have near average temperatures. This is due to arctic air possibly plunging into the western U.S. With a massive high just to our west, dry conditions should prevail.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH today with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers. Winds tonight and Friday will be generally in the 5 to 10 MPH range and variable in nature. Winds Friday night through Sunday will generally be less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: So far, rainfall totals on the valley floor have been a bit less than expected with the exception of Kern County. As of a few hours ago, Bakersfield had recorded .46, Fresno .44, and Madera .52. Fear not, however, as totals in the mountain areas have lived up to expectations. Two and a half to five inches have been recorded along the Sierra Nevada.
From this point on, periods of showers can be expected. Models do indicate enough dynamics when the daytime heating process gets underway for isolated thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Showers will continue through this evening then will pretty much be over by sunrise tomorrow with possibly some upslope showers near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.
Friday through Sunday will be dry then a weak weather system will move through northern California Sunday night and Monday morning for a small chance of light showers.
Next week, and if all goes as planned, possibly the following week will be dry as a massive high builds over the eastern Pacific and western United States, deflecting the storm track well to the north.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and on through the weekend. Models do show a fairly strong off shore flow at the surface Monday and Tuesday. It’s always possible some of this drier air could mix down to the valley floor, meaning low to mid 30s. For now, though, I’m betting the valley will be unaffected.
Very stable weather can be expected next week with very strong high pressure over the west and off shore. Periodic blasts of arctic air will dive into the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. later next week. As of now, no models show this air mass affecting California.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Porterville: 95%/46%, Bakersfield: 70%/100%
Actual Humidity January 16, 2019: Delano, 94%/46% Porterville, 95%/46%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .20, Parlier .25, Blackwell .32, Lindcove .27, Arvin .69, Orange Cove .33, Porterville .26, Delano .36 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 52, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 74/20. Average Temperatures: 55/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1077 -384
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 48.9 +4.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 3.69 season. or -.95, Month to Date: 1.36 +.19
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.61, or -.95. Month to Date: .31 -.29
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 503, Parlier, 517 , Arvin, 449 Shafter, 525 Stratford, 506, Delano 514, Lindcove, 762, Porterville, 1023
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 5:09 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:58
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 57 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 53 / 0.04 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 51 / 0.02 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 47 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 72 / 45 / 0.02 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 63 / 50 / 0.05 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 61 / 43 / 0.06 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 59 / 46 / 0.01 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.04 7.12 116 3.52 57 6.13 14.06
MODESTO 0.03 5.68 105 3.25 60 5.40 13.11
MERCED 0.02 5.30 103 1.99 39 5.16 12.50
MADERA T 3.86 73 1.31 25 5.30 12.02
FRESNO T 3.54 76 1.23 27 4.64 11.50
HANFORD T 2.76 61 1.68 37 4.54 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.61 63 0.88 34 2.56 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.65 73 0.20 9 2.27 5.18
SALINAS 0.21 5.35 102 2.13 41 5.23 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.02 5.47 107 2.16 42 5.10 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.01 5.35 98 1.95 36 5.45 13.95
Next report: Thursday afternoon, January 17