January 29, 2019
Summary: A very weak upper air disturbance developed off the northern California coast overnight and has now slid southeastward over north/central California. A lot of virga…rain falling but not reaching the ground…is being picked up by radar with even a few locations towards Merced and Modesto reporting sprinkles. This system will slide southeastward through central California today. Variable cloudiness will continue through Wednesday from the rather chaotic eastern Pacific Ocean. A very compact low will slide right along the coast Thursday, spreading precipitation into the valley. Heaviest amounts could actually be along the west side which will be closer to the center of circulation. Quantitative precipitation amounts range from .20 to around .33, potentially with this system.
The chance of showers will taper off Thursday night with a very temporary period of dry weather Thursday night and Friday morning. A very strong low will approach the California coast Friday night and Saturday. Surface charts indicate there will be very strong differences in pressure between the interior west and a very strong surface low. This could potentially result in strong winds over portions of Kern County and along the west side of the San Joaquin Valley. As the low moves in land later Saturday, winds will taper off.
Precipitation from this event could be locally heavy with snow possibly being measured in feet over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and significant amounts of rain on the valley floor. Several more waves of low pressure will move through this trough Saturday night through Monday with a continuation of periods of showers.
The air mass settling in with this system will be colder with temperatures dropping to below average Sunday and remaining there for much of next week. Models do show upper level high pressure beginning to fill in behind this storm by Tuesday for what appears to be dry weather for several days thereafter.
Forecast: Cloudy today and tonight with a small chance of sprinkles or light showers. Variable cloudiness Wednesday after patchy morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. rain becoming likely late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Mostly cloudy later Thursday night and Friday morning. Rain will become likely again later Friday afternoon and at times through Saturday. Periods of showers Saturday night through Monday. A chance of showers Monday night; becoming partly cloudy Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/45/64/49/60 | Reedley 63/44/64/50/61 | Dinuba 62/43/63/48/59 | |
| Porterville 64/44/64/48/62 | Lindsay 64/43/64/48/61 | Delano 65/45/66/49/61 | |
| Bakersfield 65/48/68/52/62 | Taft 66/49/68/52/62 | Arvin 66/45/68/48/63 | |
| Lamont 65/45/68/50/61 | Pixley 64/44/64/49/62 | Tulare 62/43/64/47/59 | |
| Woodlake 61/43/64/47/60 | Hanford 63/45/64/48/61 | Orosi 62/43/64/47/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Pm rain likely 50/61 |
Saturday
Periods of rain 51/61 |
Sunday
Showers likely 43/55 |
Monday
Chance of showers 37/56 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 38/59 |
Two Week Outlook: February 5 through February 11: This model is not as strong on the chance of precipitation for central California. It does call for above average rain for southern California and the Desert Southwest with no more than an even chance of rain for northern and central California. Temperatures should range near to marginally below average.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday. There is the possibility of strong gusty winds late Friday night and Saturday morning over the Kern County portion of the valley floor. Models show significant differences in surface pressure between the interior west and the approaching strong low. Strong, gusty winds are also possible over the west side of the valley and locally elsewhere. These potential winds will decrease by midday Saturday as the low moves inland, equalizing pressure differences.
Rain: A weak upper air disturbance developed off the northern California coast overnight and is now moving through central California. It is producing precipitation aloft with a few ground stations from Merced northward reporting sprinkles. As this little system moves through, there will be the possibility of a few light showers or sprinkles through the day. Dry weather will return tonight through Wednesday then precipitation will spread over the area later Wednesday night and Thursday as a compact little low slides southward right along the coast. It’s possible the west side of the valley could receive the most significant amounts of rain. Most model estimates place possible rain at .10 to around .33. a very short swath of dry weather will return Thursday night and Friday morning before a very strong low pressure system begins to spread rain inland Friday afternoon with periods of rain continuing through Saturday, possibly locally heavy at times along the east side. This low will turn into a trough with more waves of low pressure moving through the trough for a continuation of showers Sunday through Monday. It does appear dry weather will return Tuesday and last for several days thereafter.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through Tuesday morning. Even though the air mass coming in behind a complex weather system over the weekend will be considerably cooler, for now, anyway, all locations will remain above freezing. There has been a bit of flip flopping on models as far as temperatures are concerned, but for now it looks like mid to upper 30s are likely Tuesday and Wednesday mornings of next week. Models for later next week indicate below average temperatures, but not low enough to threaten below freezing conditions.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern, mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Hanford: 70%/100%, Bakersfield: 50%/95%
Actual Humidity January 28, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/60%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .38, Parlier .47, Blackwell .47, Lindcove .41, Arvin .51, Orange Cove .46, Porterville .38, Delano .44 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 51, Blackwell 52, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 50, Delano 49
Record Temperatures: 73/24. Average Temperatures: 57/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1247 -443
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 49.7 +4.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 4.42 season. or -1.02, Month to Date: 2.09 +.12
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 2.27, or -.72. Month to Date: .97 -.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 601, Parlier, 606 , Arvin, 533 Shafter, 614 Stratford, 604, Delano 610, Lindcove, 892, Porterville, 1208
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:03 am Sunset: 5:22 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 69 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 38 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 7.91 110 3.99 56 7.18 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.35 99 3.55 55 6.42 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.12 103 2.29 38 5.96 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.58 76 1.55 26 6.03 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.42 81 1.64 30 5.44 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.33 66 1.78 35 5.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.27 76 1.10 37 2.99 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.46 134 0.20 8 2.59 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.80 93 2.51 40 6.24 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.36 104 2.30 38 6.13 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.41 99 2.02 31 6.50 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon/January 29