February 22, 2019
Summary: Temperatures are quite cool this afternoon considering we have generally clear skies throughout the valley. Even though temperatures are running in the lower 50s as of 1:00pm, it’s still 2 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Models for tonight are a bit worrisome. Widespread upper 20s are expected with some of the coldest locations possibly down into the mid 20s. more in the frost discussion below.
This unusually cold February we’ve endured will begin to come to an end Sunday. A zone of upper level low pressure will stretch from the Pacific Northwest to about 1,000 miles to the southwest of the northern California coast Sunday through Tuesday. Underneath this low, the flow will be generally west to east which will move much milder air in aloft and at the surface with temperatures rising to much above average for much of next week.
There will be a subtropical feed of moisture moving into Oregon and northern California Monday and Tuesday with showers reaching down to possibly a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. These moisture feed will dip a bit further south Wednesday and Wednesday night and for now the chance of rain at that time appears to be relatively high. This will be followed by a ridge of high pressure upwelling ahead of a large mid Pacific storm which will approach the northern California coast Friday evening. By a week from tomorrow, if models are correct, mild rains will begin to move in from the west/southwest underneath that low for possibly significant precipitation. This will especially be true over the Sierra Nevada.
A similar low shows up on models for about a week from Tuesday, possibly accompanied by a pineapple connection. We’ll keep you posted.
Forecast: Mostly clear and cold tonight. Mostly clear Saturday and Saturday night. variable cloudiness at times Sunday through Wednesday night. there will be a chance of showers late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. becoming mostly clear Thursday through Thursday night. increasing cloudiness Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 28/57/34/61 | Reedley 29/57/33/62 | Dinuba 27/56/33/61 | |
| Porterville 28/57/33/62 | Lindsay 27/57/33/63 | Delano 29/58/34/63 | |
| Bakersfield 31/59/35/63 | Taft 35/59/39/64 | Arvin 29/60/34/64 | |
| Lamont 29/59/35/63 | Pixley 28/58/33/62 | Tulare 27/57/33/61 | |
| Woodlake 28/57/34/62 | Hanford 29/58/33/62 | Orosi 28/57/33/61 | |
Winds: Winds during the night to mid morning hours will be generallay less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday. During the late morning and afternoon hours, winds will be variable to 12 MPH.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Monday. There will be a slight chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday from mainly Fresno County northward. The chance will begin to increase Wednesday and Wednesday night as a subtropical feed of moisture moves into central California from the north. Dry weather will return Thursday and Friday. Next weekend, for now, appears to be a wet one as a mid latitude storm approaches the Oregon/northern California coast with a moist west/southwest flow feeding bands of moisture into central California from time to time. This could result in significant rain for central California, especially over the Sierra, but snow levels will be high.
The following week, models show a similar low about Tuesday or Wednesday with a possible pineapple connection.
Frost Discussion: The latest models this afternoon are really leaning on the cold side for lows tonight. Using Porterville as an example, one model says the low will be 29 while another indicates 28. Typically, these types of readings put the very coldest locations in the mid 20s. I do believe this is possible tonight in those typical trouble spots.
Coldest readings tonight should dip down to 25 to 26 with most flat terrain topography ranging from 27 to 31 and hillsides in the low to mid 30s. the inversion tonight will tighten up a bit with temperatures at 34 feet generally ranging from 3 to 6 degrees warmer at most locations.
Coldest locations will drop to 32 about 10:00pm, possibly reaching 28 degrees about 3:00am.
Sunday morning will be considerably milder as the pattern will finally begin to change. Even so, colder locations may still be in the lower 30s Sunday morning. Models are showing mid and high level clouds moving in Sunday. If they arrive in time, temperatures would be in the mid 30s.
For Monday and beyond, conditions will be a horse of a different color as a milder westerly flow prevails in the upper atmosphere. Temperatures will rise well above the 60s during the day and generally in the 40s during the overnight hours.
Medium range models are not indicating a return to a cold weather pattern.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
29 |
Lamont
28 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Saturday morning/February 23