February 28, 2019
Summary: All the shower activity has come to an end on the valley floor with a few light showers over the Sierra Nevada from Fresno County north. Dry weather will continue through Friday underneath a fast moving upper level ridge of high pressure which will already begin to move into the Great Basin Friday afternoon. This will allow the next lower latitude lower pressure system to begin to spread precipitation over central California beginning Friday night, mainly after midnight, with periods of rain continuing Saturday and Saturday night.
some of the high resolution short term models are indicating some fairly significant amounts of rain on the valley floor. One model indicates nearly a half inch of rain in Bakersfield, but I view that with a great deal of skepticism. At any rate, .50 plus could occur north of the Kern County line, especially along the east side. By Sunday morning, the precipitation will turn showery as the parent low moves through northern California. The showers will come to an end by late Sunday with another fast moving ridge of high pressure taking over Sunday night through Monday. Models are still indicating a major weather event will take place for central California later Monday night through at least Wednesday morning.
A powerful low will approach the northern California coast Tuesday with a magnificent looking atmospheric river of air running from southwest to northeast right into central California. This AR, according to some models, will come inland from Santa Barbara County on the south to Monterey County on the north. In other words, we will be the bulls eye of this event, if models are correct. Historically, these types of systems with strong dynamics have produced anywhere from 5 to 10 inches of rain along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and, on rare occasions, even more.
The abundance of subtropical moisture will bump the snow level up to probably as high as 9,000 feet, so one can only imagine that much rain on top of a significant snow pack already in place. In addition, there’s snow on the ground at relatively low elevations. Following these same models, the AR will shift slightly into southern California Wednesday, causing the southland all kinds of headaches. A moist west/southwest flow will follow Wednesday night and Thursday for a continuation of much lighter precipitation. Models going out through the middle of the month still call for an excellent chance of above average precipitation with temperatures finally dropping below average.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight and Friday with patchy fog Friday morning. Increasing cloudiness Friday night with a chance of showers before midnight. Periods of rain after midnight through Saturday night with showers Sunday morning, ending Sunday afternoon. Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night with a chance of rain after midnight. Rain, heavy at times, later Monday night and Tuesday. Rain, heavy at times, continuing Tuesday night into Wednesday. Showers Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 47/64/53/65 | Reedley 48/65/54/66 | Dinuba 46/64/52/64 | |
| Porterville 47/66/54/67 | Lindsay 46/66/53/67 | Delano 48/66/54/68 | |
| Bakersfield 51/68/56/69 | Taft 51/67/57/69 | Arvin 49/67/55/68 | |
| Lamont 49/67/55/68 | Pixley 48/67/54/66 | Tulare 47/67/53/65 | |
| Woodlake 47/65/54/65 | Hanford 48/65/55/65 | Orosi 47/64/53/65 | |
Winds: Winds tonight through Friday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions overnight. Later Friday night through Saturday night, winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds Sunday will decrease to around 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Sunday night.
Rain: Expect dry weather tonight through Friday. There is a chance of showers later Friday evening. That chance will rapidly increase after midnight with periods of rain Saturday and Saturday night, turning to showers Sunday morning. Models continue to advertise significant amounts of precipitation on the valley floor, possibly half inch plus totals. The typical rain shadows will be dancing along the west side and in Kern County but even there, models are still indicating the possibility of a decent soaking. Dry weather will return Sunday afternoon through Monday, then a major rain event will set up as a powerful low will be off the northern California coast Tuesday morning. Some models show a significant atmospheric river of air, or pineapple connection, coming on shore between Santa Barbara and Monterey Counties. That would put us in the bulls eye for the heaviest precipitation. Five to ten inches would certainly be possible along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and one to two inches along the east side of the valley. The main challenge will be powerful storms equal powerful rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County. There are occasions, however, when there’s so much moisture involved that it overtakes the rain shadow. The AR will move into southern California sometime Wednesday, so the heavy rain will turn to lighter showers Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Medium range models continue to indicate a reasonably decent chance of active weather will continue on and off through the middle of the month with periods of dry weather between systems.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
Next report: Friday morning/March 1