March 13, 2019
Summary: Wall to wall sunshine out there this afternoon. Very strong winds are currently blowing along the west side. A few representative examples are: Gustine 29 MPH, Harris Ranch 31 MPH, Huron 34 MPH, Panoche Road 35 MPH, and Kettleman Hills with winds of 43 MPH. It’s hard to believe that these winds are being generated by a massive low currently centered over Kansas. Winds will begin to die off as the evening progresses and will be generally light after midnight.
Surface high pressure will begin to take shape over the Great Basin Thursday while upper level high pressure off the Pacific coast begins to build eastward and northward for the beginning of a warming trend. Freezing levels are currently at 6,800 feet but will steadily rise as much warmer air moves in aloft, especially over the weekend. The high will reach its maximum strength Monday and Tuesday of next week as temperatures move into the mid to upper 70s, which sounds like a heat wave compared to recent standards.
Models continue to show major changes about the middle of next week. Some of the models this afternoon are indicating a low, both at the surface and aloft, will be off the central coast Thursday and just meandering off shore for a couple of days. In theory, this would keep a chance of showers in the forecast for Thursday all the way into Monday of the following week. Somewhere in there, depending upon model of choice, a trough will extend from the Gulf of Alaska all the way southward to off the southern California coast.
After about a week from Tuesday, upper level low pressure shows up over the Desert Southwest with high pressure off the Pacific coast. This would create a northeast flow, allowing temperatures to either be near or marginally below average.
Forecast: Clear skies tonight and Thursday. High clouds will mix in with mostly clear skies Thursday night and Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday night. increasing cloudiness Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 34/65/38/69 | Reedley 34/64/38/70 | Dinuba 32/65/37/68 | |
| Porterville 34/66/38/70 | Lindsay 32/66/37/69 | Delano 35/65/40/70 | |
| Bakersfield 39/67/42/71 | Taft 42/68/46/70 | Arvin 35/67/39/71 | |
| Lamont 36/67/40/70 | Pixley 34/65/39/69 | Tulare 32/64/38/68 | |
| Woodlake 34/65/38/68 | Hanford 36/65/40/69 | Orosi 32/65/38/68 | |
Winds: Winds along the west side over the next few hours will gust to between 25 and 35 MPH with locally stronger gusts, diminishing after sunset. Elsewhere, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at around 10 to 15 MPH, becoming light overnight. Winds Thursday through Saturday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH late mornings and afternoons and less than 7 MPH nights and early mornings with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least next Tuesday night. a pattern change will begin around the middle of next week as models continue to trend towards a developing low off the central and southern California coast. This low is depicted on some models as just hanging around off shore for a chance of showers Thursday and Friday of next week. Some kind of trough of low pressure will dig southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into California next weekend into the early part of the following week. Potentially, this could keep the unsettled pattern going. After that, dry weather will return as upper level high pressure shows up along the west coast, blocking potential storms.
Frost Discussion: Dew points this afternoon have fallen into the low to mid 30s in Fresno and Tulare Counties, but have lowered into the mid to upper 20s along the west side where strong, gusty, northwesterly winds have been exceeding 30 MPH off and on all day. With completely clear skies, where winds die off and become calm, lows will dip to between 33 and 38 degrees. However, isolated pockets could drop to as low as 29 to 31 for short durations before sunrise. No significant frost is expected on a widespread basis, however. On Friday morning, most locations will chill into the mid to upper 30s with a chance of a river bottom or two teasing with the 32 degree mark. The warming trend will accelerate over the weekend as upper level high pressure continues to build with above freezing conditions over the weekend and continuing for all of next week. Still nothing longer term suggesting a particularly cold pattern on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
Mcfarland
31 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Thursday morning/March 14