September 29, 2017
Summary: Already this morning there are subtle signs of an overall change in our weather pattern, minor as it may be. Yesterday at this time, the marine layer was only 200 feet deep and here we are 24 hours later with a marine layer of 1,500 feet and rising. This is all due to an approaching trough of low pressure which will bring no rain but temperatures will back up to near seasonal values by Sunday. Models place most locations in the mid 80s by Sunday.
A broad area of low pressure will be centered over the Great Basin next week for a continuation of a strong on shore flow from time to time. We are still looking at Wednesday and Thursday as a secondary low moves down the western side of the trough and into central California. For now, it appears the valley will remain dry, although that’s still a low confidence forecast, with an increasing threat of showers over the Sierra Nevada. Temperatures will likely drop into the upper 70s by Wednesday and remain there through Friday.
Longer term, models continue to show a trough over the western states in one way, shape, or form. So far, it looks like precipitation will remain to our north, but near to somewhat below average temperatures will continue.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds today. Mostly clear tonight through Tuesday night. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 90/55/86/52/85 | Reedley 92/55/86/53/85 | Dinuba 91/54/87/52/85 | |
| Porterville 92/55/87/52/86 | Lindsay 92/54/87/51/86 | Delano 93/57/87/55/86 | |
| Bakersfield 93/62/88/61/85 | Arvin 93/57/87/56/85 | Taft 92/64/87/59/85 | |
| Lamont 94/58/88/57/86 | Pixley 92/56/87/52/85 | Tulare 91/54/86/53/85 | |
| Woodlake 92/55/86/53/85 | Hanford 92/55/87/52/86 | Orosi 91/55/86/51/85 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 53/81 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 50/83 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 49/81 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 49/79 |
Friday
Mostly clear 51/83 |
Two Week Outlook: October 4 through October 10: This model indicates a trough of low pressure will be dominant during this time frame, lowering temperatures to below average. This trough may be strong enough to spread showers over northern California with even a small chance over central California. It would see temperatures below average with breezy conditions at times.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH today and tonight, becoming mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH at times Saturday through Monday with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: We are still looking at the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. All the models point to dry weather for this period so we’ll amend the forecast in that direction. However, that’s a low confidence forecast as a secondary low will be moving southward along the western edge of low pressure over the Great Basin. It appears showers will break out over the Sierra Nevada and possibly parts of northern California, so for now we’ll go with that dry forecast while keeping a close on things.
Afternoon Dew Points Today:. Visalia, Upper 30s to the mid 40s. Bakersfield, Upper 30s to the mid 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 15%/85% Bakersfield, 15%/55%
Actual Humidity September 27, 2017: Delano, 86%/16%, Porterville, 78%/13%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days September 27, 2017: Stratford 1.31, Parlier 1.08, Blackwell 1.26, Lindcove 1.11, Arvin 1.24, Orange Cove 1.25, Porterville 1.10, Delano 1.14., Madera Two 1.03 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 70, Blackwell 73, Lindcove 72, Arvin 77, Orange Cove 71, Porterville 74, Delano 71, Madera Two 74
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 75.6 +1.8
Record Temperatures: 104/43. Average Temperatures: 87/57
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2117, +546 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since September 27, 2017, Fresno: 17.36 season. or +5.91. Month to Date: .16
Since September 27, 2017, Bakersfield: 8.34, or +1.89, Month to Date: ..51, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:53 am Sunset: 6:45 Hours of Daylight: 11:56
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 55 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 95 / 52 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 98 / 56 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 95 / 64 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 93 / 54 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 92 / 60 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 94 / 55 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 92 / 68 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
TOCKTON 0.00 21.79 156 16.69 119 14.01 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 130 15.61 120 13.06 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.05 129 14.66 118 12.47 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.26 119 12.96 108 11.99 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.36 151 14.29 125 11.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.21 111 8.26 82 10.07 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 8.34 129 5.43 84 6.46 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 179 3.88 75 5.14 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.49 129 13.47 105 12.80 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 16.17 127 8.06 63 12.74 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.91 136 9.00 65 13.92 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, September 30