September 11, 2019
Summary: The flow of marine air into the San Joaquin Valley has ceased. Winds at Traverse Air Force Base in the Delta were dead calm as of 6:30am. The trough of low pressure responsible for the refreshing break in the heat now stretches from Idaho southward into southern Nevada. Upper level high pressure is building just off shore and will begin moving inland later today for the beginning of a rapid warming trend. Today will be pleasant as it will take another 12 to 18 hours to mix out the pool of marine air currently in place on the valley floor. Readings will jump from the mid 80s today to the mid 90s Thursday then suddenly hottest locations will be pushing the century mark again as early as Friday. By Friday night and Saturday, upper level high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific, California, and the Desert Southwest. The weekend, especially Saturday, will be hot when many locations will top out into the lower 100s.
Hope is on the way, however, as a cooling trend will set up early next week in response to a strong early season low pressure system which will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into a position near Vancouver Island later Sunday. By Monday, an elongated low pressure system will stretch from the Pacific Northwest to central California. A dry cold front will move down the valley Monday. The combination of much cooler air aloft and another strong push of marine air will send temperatures tumbling. Tuesday will be the coolest day in this string. In fact, some models show temperatures just below the 80 degree mark for Tuesday.
The yo yo ride will continue as a warming trend will begin next Thursday as a large high covers the eastern Pacific and ridges northeastward into British Columbia, creating an off shore flow. By next weekend, the high will be moving into the western United States for a return to well above average temperatures.
Forecast: Clear skies with a warming trend through Saturday. mostly clear Sunday and somewhat cooler. Partly cloudy Monday and Tuesday and much cooler. Mostly clear Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 85/56/94/60/97 | Reedley 84/56/93/61/97 | Dinuba 83/55/92/61/96 |
| Porterville 85/56/95/61/98 | Lindsay 84/55/93/60/97 | Delano 86/58/94/62/98 |
| Bakersfield 84/63/95/68/98 | Taft 86/65/95/70/97 | Arvin 86/58/95/66/99 |
| Lamont 85/59/95/65/98 | Pixley 85/56/94/61/97 | Tulare 83/56/94/60/96 |
| Woodlake 85/57/93/60/97 | Hanford 84/57/94/61/98 | Orosi 84/56/93/60/97 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 62/101 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 62/94 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 55/84 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 53/81 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 52/83 |
Two Week Outlook: September 17 through September 23: This model indicates there’s a reasonably decent chance of above average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest and northern California and average rainfall over central California. This time of year, that simply means the risk of precipitation will be low. Temperatures should be fairly close to average levels.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds through Saturday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and early evenings. Winds during the later night and morning hours will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: : Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/75% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/55%
Actual Humidity range September 10, 2019: Delano, 84%/29% Porterville, 78%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.50, Parlier 1.51, Blackwell 1.63, Arvin 1.67, Orange Cove 1.67, Porterville 1.48, Delano 1.50. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 78, Blackwell NA, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 77, Porterville NA, Delano 75
Record Temperatures: 111/44. Average Temperatures: 92/61
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1827 +410
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 81.4 +4.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.50. Month to Date: .00 -.02
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.42. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:39 am Sunset: 7:11 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:35
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 82 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 83 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 60 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 86 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 83 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 82 / 57 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 83 / 62 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 82 / 61 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 133 9.22 67 13.80 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 63 12.88 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 108 7.06 58 12.26 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.81 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 104 6.73 59 11.35 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 95 4.70 47 9.95 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 3.95 62 6.40 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 169 3.08 61 5.01 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.67 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 118 9.62 77 12.57 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 113 6.01 43 13.83 13.95
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Next report: Thursday, September 12