September 13, 2019
Summary: Upper level high pressure stretches from one center over the eastern Pacific all the way eastward to another high over the southeastern U.S. The high has crushed the marine layer, which is down to just 300 feet at Monterey. The freezing level remains at about 16,000 feet, according to the latest balloon sounding above Vandenberg Air Force Base. Temperatures will push the century mark this afternoon, and a few locations may actually hit that mark. Saturday will be the hottest day when most locations will be in the 99 to 102 degree range.
A big shift in the pattern will begin Sunday, although readings will still be rather toasty for this time of year. The high will begin to buckle as a strong early season low pressure system moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and centers near Vancouver Island Sunday. By Monday afternoon, a strong low will stretch from western Canada southward into central California. Some of the modeling information this morning has become more interesting. We may see light showers as far south as a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line with a minimal chance of a few light showers as far south as a Hanford/Visalia line. If precipitation does occur, generally trace amounts are likely with the main impact being much cooler temperatures and strong, gusty winds at times. The best chance of light showers will be Monday night through Tuesday morning when a cold front moves through.
It now appears all of next week will feel rather autumn like as a secondary low moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern California Thursday and Friday. This system will be weaker, but could offer a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada. The main ingredients with this second system will be occasionally breezy weather with a continuation of sub average temperatures, which, after the long, hot summer, will be rather refreshing.
Forecast: Clear and hot through Saturday. occasional high clouds at times Saturday night and Sunday, otherwise it will be mostly clear. Variable cloudiness, breezy, and much cooler Monday through Tuesday evening. We’ll add a small chance of a few light showers from Hanford and Visalia northward Monday night and Tuesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy late Tuesday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 98/61/100/62/94 | Reedley 99/61/101/62/96 | Dinuba 97/60/99/61/95 |
| Porterville 99/61/101/63/96 | Lindsay 98/60/100/61/96 | Delano 100/64/102/65/96 |
| Bakersfield 100/70/102/71/98 | Taft 99/72/101/73/98 | Arvin 101/67/102/68/99 |
| Lamont 100/66/101/67/99 | Pixley 99/61/100/62/97 | Tulare 97/60/99/62/95 |
| Woodlake 98/59/100/61/96 | Hanford 99/61/101/63/96 | Orosi 98/59/99/61/95 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
PM showers possible 55/81 |
Tuesday
AM showers possible 50/79 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 52/85 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 54/86 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 54/84 |
Two Week Outlook: September 19 through September 26: Upper level high pressure will be the dominant feature over and off the west coast during this time frame. For now, it appears the chance of precipitation is very low with above average temperatures.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: During the afternoons and evenings, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at no more than 12 MPH through Saturday night. Winds during the late night and morning hours will be no more than 6 MPH with periods of calm conditions. Winds will begin to pick up out of the west Sunday afternoon at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH out of the northwest Sunday night and Monday with gusts to 35 MPH possible, mainly along the west side.
Rain: Models continue to trend towards a strong low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California Monday through Tuesday night. most of the models this morning show the rain line down to roughly a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line with only a minor chance of light showers as far south as a Hanford/Visalia line. Models still show this as a rather moisture starved event, so the chance is excellent that, if it does rain, only trace amounts to possibly a few hundredths north of Fresno will fall. Dry weather will return Tuesday afternoon and will continue for the remainder of next week and more than likely into the following week, as well.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: : Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 15%/50% at Hanford. Bakersfield 15%/40%
Actual Humidity range September 12, 2019: Delano, 84%/23% Porterville, 75%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.48, Parlier 1.47, Blackwell 1.59, Arvin 1.63, Orange Cove 1.64, Porterville 1.44, Delano 1.47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 78, Blackwell NA, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 76, Porterville NA, Delano 74
Record Temperatures: 106/48. Average Temperatures: 92/60
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1858 +401
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 79.4 +3.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.49. Month to Date: .00 -.03
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.42. Month to Date: .02 -.00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:40 am Sunset: 7:07 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:31
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 95 / 56 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 96 / 63 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 96 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 96 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 94 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 94 / 55 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 91 / 60 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 93 / 59 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 133 9.22 67 13.82 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 63 12.89 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 108 7.06 57 12.28 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.83 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 104 6.73 59 11.36 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 95 4.70 47 9.97 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 3.95 62 6.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 169 3.08 61 5.02 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 56 12.68 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 118 9.62 76 12.58 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 113 6.01 43 13.84 13.95
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Next report: Saturday, September 14