September 21, 2019
Summary: High pressure is finally nosing in from the eastern Pacific. This will result in a weekend warming trend. Already this morning, temperatures are running generally 2 to 4 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. To our south, there is plenty of action over the equatorial waters of the eastern Pacific. Hurricane Lorena is along the eastern coast of southern Baja and is taking more of a northerly course than earlier projected. This action will send copious amounts of moisture into Arizona and New Mexico Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. All this will bypass California.
The next low pressure system will be an inside slider as it moves through the Pacific Northwest Sunday night and into extreme western Nevada Monday. A few showers could occur over the high Sierra, but the valley floor will remain dry with some increase in cloud cover Sunday night and Monday morning along with a drop in temperatures. That temperature drop will be temporary, however, as a fairly strong ridge of upper level high pressure moves in from the west Tuesday through Wednesday. Wednesday should turn out to be the warmest day of the week. Readings will move into the mid to upper 90s.
Our weather pattern will become more and more interesting beginning Thursday as a rather dynamic low pressure system develops over the Pacific Northwest with the bottom side of this low moving into central California Friday through Saturday. models agree on one thing and that is the fact we will see the coolest weather of the early fall season so far. Readings could drop into the low to mid 70s Friday and Saturday.
The main challenge will be the potential for precipitation. Projections range from just a chance of showers over the higher elevations to a chance of showers on the valley floor. Since we are in the heart of the drying season, I feel the need to add a chance of showers to the forecast for Friday through Saturday over the entire valley. Models do show this low persisting all the way through Tuesday, so a slight chance of showers will persist Sunday through Tuesday, as well, along with well below average temperatures. It’s not until the middle of the following week that upper level high pressure is projected to move in from the eastern Pacific.
The two week model is adamant about a higher than normal chance of rain with below average temperatures continuing.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday night. partly cloudy Monday and Monday night. mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday night. becoming partly cloudy Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night leading to a chance of scattered showers Friday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 88/55/93/57/86 | Reedley 88/54/91/57/86 | Dinuba 86/54/91/56/87 |
| Porterville 88/55/92/57/88 | Lindsay 87/54/91/56/86 | Delano 89/59/92/60/88 |
| Bakersfield 89/64/94/65/87 | Taft 88/66/92/67/87 | Arvin 90/58/94/61/88 |
| Lamont 89/59/94/61/89 | Pixley 88/55/92/57/87 | Tulare 86/54/91/56/87 |
| Woodlake 87/54/91/56/86 | Hanford 88/58/92/60/88 | Orosi 87/53/91/55/87 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 56/91 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 61/97 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 61/83 |
Friday
Chance of showers 53/75 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 49/74 |
Two Week Outlook: September 27 through October 3: This model shows an active weather pattern over the western United States. Precipitation cannot be ruled out during this period as a big area of low pressure may affect the western U.S. Temperatures would range below seasonal averages.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or les than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings through Sunday. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Late Sunday night and Monday, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side. Winds Tuesday will decrease to 5 to 12 MPH, mainly out of the northwest.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Thursday. Models continue to vary considerably on the chance of rain from a strong, early season storm. The bottom line is, we cannot rule out a chance of showers as early as Thursday night with a continued risk of scattered showers from Friday through Sunday as this storm will be a very slow mover. In fact, inklings of this system will remain over central California through Tuesday, so I think it’s appropriate to put at least a slight chance of hsowers in the forecast for Sunday and Monday and possibly even Tuesday. With relatively cold air moving in aloft, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Friday and Saturday afternoons and evenings.
Dry weather should be back by Wednesday. for the second day in a row, however, the two week model is indicating there’s a greater than average risk of precipitation with below average temperatures for September 28 through October 4.
Because of the risk of showers, a Sunday morning update will be issued.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/70% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/50%
Actual Humidity range September 20, 2019: Delano, 82%/29% Porterville, 84%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.43, Parlier 1.32, Blackwell Corner 1.42, Arvin 1.43, Orange Cove 1.44, Porterville 1.29, Delano 1.31. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 74, Blackwell 85, Arvin, NA, Orange Cove 74, Porterville 83, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 102/42. Average Temperatures: 90/58
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1923 +398
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for September so far: 76.7 +2.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.44. Month to Date: .00 -.08
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.82, or +1.39. Month to Date: .02 -.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:47 am Sunset: 6:56 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:13
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 85 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 83 / 59 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 82 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 81 / 60 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 83 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
STOCKTON 0.00 18.60 134 9.22 66 13.92 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.47 104 8.17 63 12.97 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 107 7.06 57 12.38 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 96 7.22 61 11.91 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 104 6.73 59 11.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 95 4.70 47 10.03 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 3.95 61 6.43 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.48 167 3.08 61 5.08 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.89 109 7.16 56 12.74 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 118 9.62 76 12.66 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 113 6.01 43 13.88 13.95
Next report: Monday, September 23
An update will be issued Sunday morning, September 22