November 17, 2019
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure off the northern California coast has built a ridge eastward into northern California and Nevada. The other main feature is an upper low parked off the northern coast of Baja. The squeeze play between these two systems has created an east/northeast flow at all levels of the atmosphere, resulting in some locally gusty winds over the Kern County mountains. The combination of downslope heating off the mountains and increasing pressures aloft will send temperatures to near record territory Monday as readings tease with the 80 degree mark, especially in Kern County.
A rather abrupt change in our pattern will begin Tuesday as a trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest dives rapidly southward into California and that low off the northern Baja coastline is pulled northeastward into southern California and Arizona. The center of circulation of the northern system will take a path further west than earlier indicated. Most place the center of the low just off the central coast Wednesday. the fact that it’s overwater means the chance of showers will increase beginning late Tuesday night and lasting through Thursday with the greatest possibility of measurable precipitation being Wednesday into Thursday morning. As you might expect, temperatures will take a nosedive and will only rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
The whole system will migrate eastward Friday for a return to dry weather as high pressure over the eastern Pacific shifts eastward into California. That high appears to be the dominant feature for next weekend and well into the following week for an extended period of dry weather. For now, models do not give much hope of rain after Thursday until possibly around early December.
Forecast: Other than occasional high, thin clouds, clear skies will prevail until Monday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a small chance of showers Tuesday night. showers will become likely Wednesday through Thursday with the greatest risk of measurable rain being from midday Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. Clearing Friday afternoon. Mostly clear Friday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/41/78/42/71 | Reedley 75/40/78/42/72 | Dinuba 73/39/76/41/71 |
| Porterville 75/41/78/42/72 | Lindsay 74/40/78/41/73 | Delano 76/44/79/44/72 |
| Bakersfield 77/50/80/52/74 | Taft 77/52/80/52/74 | Arvin 78/46/81/47/75 |
| Lamont 77/45/81/48/75 | Pixley 76/41/78/43/72 | Tulare 74/39/77/41/71 |
| Woodlake 74/41/78/42/72 | Hanford 75/42/78/43/72 | Orosi 74/40/77/42/71 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Showers likely 49/59 |
Thursday
Showers likely 46/61 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 44/64 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 49/63 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 38/64 |
Two Week Outlook: November 23 through November 29: This model projects below average temperatures over roughly 80% of the lower 48. Almost the lone exception is California where temperatures will be marginally above average. This model continues to point to an above average chance of showers over the southern half of the state.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday night. Winds Tuesday through Wednesday will periodically be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible.
Rain: The risk factor for measurable rain is higher this morning for the period beginning late Tuesday night and lasting through Thursday. Some models show the storm’s center of circulation just off the central coast Wednesday morning, meaning the general circulation around the storm will be partially over water. As a result, the storm itself will have a greater water content. It’s possible showers could begin as early as sometime later Tuesday night with the greatest possibility being Wednesday into early Thursday. If breaks in the cloud deck occur Wednesday afternoon, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. Models that project possible rainfall amounts are indicating possibly .10 to as much as .33 may occur along the eastern rim of the valley and the south valley, especially in Kern County. Generally .10 to .20 can be expected elsewhere. The chance of showers will diminish later Thursday afternoon with dry weather returning Thursday night and continuing at least through next weekend.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next 7 to 10 days.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/75%
Actual Humidity range November 16, 2019: Delano, 97%/52% Porterville, 96%/48%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .63, Parlier .58, Blackwell Corner .62, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .62, Porterville .60, Delano .60. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Blackwell 66, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 64, Delano 57
Record Temperatures: 81/29. Average Temperatures: 64/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 199 -74
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 59.1- +4.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.18 Month to Date: .00 -.55
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.61. Month to Date: .00 -.31
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 58, Parlier 100, Arvin 49, Shafter 76, Stratford 64, Delano 79, Lindcove 66, Porterville 131,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:40 Sunset: 4:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:10
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 70 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 71 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 72 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 72 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 69 / 43 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1544 / 70 / 43 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 71 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1549 / 67 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 77 1.67 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 1 1.33 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.48 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.54 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 8 1.18 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 3 1.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.61 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 71 0.56 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 55 1.22 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 3 1.15 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 28 1.25 13.95
Next report: Sunday, November 17/pm