November 29, 2019
Summary: The last remnants of a blockbuster winter storm are now moving into Nevada as the center of circulation is centered over northern Nevada this morning. Showers will continue today over the Sierra Nevada but a very temporary ridge of high pressure is moving in from the west for dry weather for most of Saturday. the next weather system is much warmer and will be in a position off the coast of northern California Saturday night, spreading rain into central California. Some models are forecasting a robust system for significant precipitation, especially from Fresno County north while others show a rain line from mainly Fresno County north. If the wetter solution comes to pass, a very moist flow of air will move into central California for heavy precipitation over the Sierra Nevada with the snow level rising above 7,000 feet. It’s possible more than an inch of precipitation could fall between Saturday night and Sunday night from Fresno County north.
The surface model also indicates that there will be fairly steep pressure differences with this system. Even though the center of circulation will remain fairly far off shore, gusty southeast winds will again pick up, generally in the 10 to 20 MPH range Saturday through Sunday. I won’t rule out the possibility of strong gusty winds moving down slope off the Tehachapi Mountains. This past storm, winds gusted to nearly 50 MPH at the bottom of the Grapevine. Those types of winds are possible again with this system.
The storm will drop slowly southward Monday and Tuesday for a chance of showers. The moist flow of air will move southward with it into southern California. We may see a pick up the precipitation Wednesday as the low weakens but moves across southern California. Models have moved up the timing of the third storm in this series. They show a significant trough of low pressure digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska, spreading more rain and mountain snow into northern California Friday through Saturday then possibly a dry weather pattern setting up Sunday and on into the following week. At that time, fog and low clouds will be our biggest challenges.
Forecast: A slight chance of showers for a time this morning, otherwise it will be mostly to partly cloudy today. Partly cloudy tonight. increasing cloudiness Saturday with a chance of rain in the afternoon. Periods of rain Saturday night through Sunday night, possibly locally heavy at times from Fresno County north. A chance of showers Monday through Tuesday night. showers becoming likely Wednesday. partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with the next chance of rain on Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 51/30/52/42/57 | Reedley 51/31/52/41/56 | Dinuba 50/30/52/40/56 | |
| Porterville 52/31/53/42/57 | Lindsay 51/30/52/40/57 | Delano 51/30/53/43/58 | |
| Bakersfield 50/37/53/44/58 | Taft 48/34/53/45/58 | Arvin 50/34/53/45/58 | |
| Lamont 51/35/53/43/58 | Pixley 52/31/52/42/57 | Tulare 50/30/52/40/56 | |
| Woodlake 51/32/52/40/57 | Hanford 51/31/52/42/57 | Orosi 51/29/52/40/56 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Chance of showers 48/60 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 47/61 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 48/63 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 42/63 |
Friday
Chance of showers 46/62 |
Two Week Outlook: December 6 through December 12:This model shows a generally above average risk of rain, especially for northern and central California. Temperatures during this time frame should be close to marginally above average.
December: NOAA always projects warmer than average temperatures during the winter months and has a fairly low batting average. This model follows suit with a projection of above average temperatures, especially over the western U.S. The latest projection for precipitation is near average rainfall will prevail.
January, February, March: This model indicates above average temperatures this winter, but what’s new, especially over the western one-third of the U.S. There are two small notations for below average precipitation. The first is over Louisiana. The second is over northern and central California. Let’s hope this projection is inaccurate, but that’s the official prognosis from NOAA.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH today. Winds tonight will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. By late Saturday afternoon and night, winds will begin to pick up out of the southeast at 10 to 12 MPH gusts to 30 MPH possible, mainly from Fresno County northward and along the west side. It’s also possible strong, gusty downslope winds may develop off the Tehachapi Mountains and into the Kern County portion of the valley floor. Winds could exceed 50 MPH at places like the bottom of the Grapevine and may exceed 30 MPH as far north as Bakersfield by Sunday morning. Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Rain: Rainfall from the exiting storm was quite significant, mainly along the center and east side of the valley with considerably less along the west side. Storm totals as of 6:00am were: Jasmine .87, Mettler .37, Taft .27, Bakersfield .66, Shafter .57, Delano .68, Arvin .82, Avenal .24, Stratford .46, Porterville .90, Lindsay .43, Tulare .88, Visalia .80, Hanford .58, Lemoore .65, Parlier .40,Del Rey .46, Fresno .50, Clovis .78, Madera .28.
The remainder of the day will be dry with only a slight chance of showers near the foothills. Dry weather will continue tonight and well into Saturday. The chance of rain will begin to increase Saturday afternoon from Fresno County north and over the remainder of the valley from Saturday night through Sunday night.
This next storm will have a very moist moisture feed underneath it. For now, models are projecting possibly more than an inch from Saturday night through Sunday night and possibly upwards of .50 in Tulare County with perhaps .25 in Kern County. The chance of showers will be reduced Monday night through Tuesday night then will increase again Wednesday as the weakening storm moves across California. If timing is correct, we should see dry weather Wednesday night through Thursday night then another, somewhat colder system will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska for possibly more rain. From next Sunday and beyond, models are portraying dry weather.
Frost Discussion: Tonight could be quite chilly, especially along the center and west side of the valley, but possibly elsewhere, as well. Now that the present storm is moving off, skies will begin to clear, however the usual upslope bank of clouds will likely form against the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains for cloud cover along the eastern and southernmost areas of the valley. Some models show the cloud cover moving out before sunrise, so the frost numbers below will be from operating under the assumption that your location cleared. Under ideal conditions tonight, coldest locations will drop down to 27 to 29 degrees with most flat terrain locations ranging from 29 to 34. Hillsides will be above freezing. Where cloud cover remains locked in all night, temperatures will be above freezing.
The inversion tonight will not be the best but will definitely help with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 3 to 5 degrees warmer.
This will be the last chance for sub freezing weather for a while as a much warmer storm will approach the northern California coast. Temperatures Sunday morning will be in the 40s with well above freezing conditions through next week. There may be colder conditions behind the storm moving in this weekend, but no hard freeze conditions are seen for now.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville 31 | Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
30 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 70%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 75%/100%
Actual Humidity range November 28, 2019: Delano, 97%/70% Porterville, 95%/68%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .54, Parlier .44, Blackwell Corner .53, Arvin .49, Orange Cove .45, Porterville .43, Delano .45. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 54, Blackwell 60, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 58, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 76/26. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 340 -121
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 56.5- +4.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.50 season. or -1.12 Month to Date: .50 -.49
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.03, or +.14. Month to Date: 1.03 +.44
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 143, Parlier 198, Arvin 109, Shafter 139, Stratford 148, Delano 166, Lindcove 142, Porterville 237
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:52 Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:52
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 50 / 39 / 0.06 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 50 / 42 / 0.06 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 40 / 0.05 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 49 / 35 / 0.03 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 54 / 44 / 0.08 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 51 / 42 / 0.03 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 53 / 42 / 0.05 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.02 0.45 19 2.66 112 2.38 14.06
MODESTO M T 0 1.02 53 1.93 13.11
MERCED T T 0 1.89 98 1.92 12.50
MADERA 0.06 0.28 14 1.53 78 1.96 12.02
FRESNO 0.03 0.47 29 1.50 93 1.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.03 0.43 29 0.91 62 1.46 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.08 0.99 111 0.46 52 0.89 6.47
BISHOP 0.06 0.87 112 0.55 71 0.78 5.18
SALINAS T 0.82 44 2.52 135 1.87 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.18 0.98 62 1.50 96 1.57 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.41 1.32 72 0.96 52 1.83 13.95
Next report: Friday afternoon /November 29