December 3, 2019
Summary: Today is turning out to be like a day from December’s of old as widespread ground fog this morning lifted into a low overcast. As of 1:00pm, Bakersfield and Porterville were reporting a low cloud deck at just 800 feet. Fresno was overcast at 600 feet, Lemoore 200 feet…well, you get the picture. Temperatures are ranging anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday at this time.
Meanwhile, off shore a low pressure system is beginning to make its move towards the east and is centered roughly 350 miles west of Santa Maria at this hour. The chance for rain will increase after midnight tonight, becoming likely over the entire valley by 3:00 to 5:00am, continuing on and off for much of the day Wednesday. models have depicted this system picking up speed on its eastward journey and it’s certainly showing signs of doing just that. In fact, this event should be just about over by sunset Wednesday with only lingering showers over the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. With more moisture on the valley floor, fog and low clouds are a good bet again Thursday and especially Friday morning with some clearing in the afternoons. Keep in mind, we’re into the time of year when the days are approaching their shortest and the sun angle in the southern sky even at midday casts long shadows. The pea soup on the valley floor has a difficult time burning off, even during the afternoon.
Upper level high pressure will control our weather Wednesday night through Friday. A large area of low pressure will then dive southward and position itself off the Oregon coast Saturday through Sunday. A westerly jet stream will be flanked underneath the low, moving in from the eastern Pacific and into central California. This pattern is favorable for decent precipitation totals along the Sierra Nevada for heavy snow and substantial amounts of rain below the snow level. The main dynamics of this storm are still indicated to be from Fresno County north with only light amounts in the southern half of the valley. Southern California will pick up very little.
Models still show a massive ridge of high pressure stretching from off of Baja all the way to the Arctic Circle Monday with modified polar air flowing southward into the Rocky Mountain region. The northern portion of the high will flatten out as the week progresses, however the storm track will remain well north. With high pressure comes inversions which will be ideal for extensive fog and low clouds next week.
Forecast: Cloudy tonight with a chance of rain after midnight. Rain becoming likely during the early morning hours. Rain at times Wednesday. mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday night through Thursday morning with areas of fog and/or low clouds. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday with widespread night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. periods of showers Saturday through Sunday. Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday morning with areas of fog and low clouds Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday night and Tuesday with widespread night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 46/56/41/61 | Reedley 45/55/42/62 | Dinuba 45/55/42/60 | |
| Porterville 44/56/41/61 | Lindsay 44/57/42/62 | Delano 47/57/43/63 | |
| Bakersfield 51/57/45/63 | Taft 51/58/47/62 | Arvin 48/58/47/63 | |
| Lamont 48/58/46/63 | Pixley 47/57/41/62 | Tulare 44/55/41/61 | |
| Woodlake 45/55/41/61 | Hanford 46/56/42/62 | Orosi 44/55/41/61 | |
Winds: Winds later tonight will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 10 MPH. locally gusty winds to near 25 MPH are possible where Hwy 58 begins its ascent up into the Tehachapi Mountains. Winds in Kern County will be generally out of the southeast tonight and Wednesday morning at 5 to 15 MPH. Winds Wednesday afternoon will be out of the west to northwest at 5 to 10 MPH. winds Wednesday night through Friday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The chance of rain will begin to increase from south to north after midnight, becoming likely during the predawn hours with rain at times continuing over the entire valley for much of the day Wednesday, ending by Wednesday evening. This system will move quickly through southern California so heavy amounts of precipitation are not anticipated. Most locations will record perhaps .10 to .20 with as much as .33 possible, mainly in southeaster Tulare County and Kern County. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and continue through at least Friday evening or perhaps even Friday night. periods of rain will return Saturday through Sunday with the most significant precipitation from Fresno County north. Rainfall amounts in the south valley, at this time, anyway, will probably be no more than .10 or so over the valley portion of Kern County. By Sunday evening, the storm will have moved off to the east. Models are still pointing to a prolonged period of dry weather beginning Sunday night and lasting through the week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
Next report: Wednesday morning/December 4