February 10, 2020
Summary: Over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, temperatures are anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. On the valley floor north of Kern County, readings are 4 to 7 degrees warmer while in Kern County temperatures are roughly the same.
The upper low is now tracking across northern Baja with numerous showers and thunderstorms over the deserts of Imperial and San Diego Counties. By sunrise, the center of circulation will be moving into southeastern Arizona while high pressure over the eastern Pacific begins to shift a bit further east into California, accelerating the warming trend. Widespread mid to upper 60s are likely Tuesday. Warmest locations will approach 70 Wednesday, especially in Kern County.
The high will dominate our pattern through Thursday night then a low will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin Friday, lowering temperatures a few degrees, but that’s about it. Upper level high pressure will briefly follow later Friday night through Saturday night. there will be a slight chance of showers Sunday, mainly from Fresno County north as a weak trough of low pressure slides through northern California then into the Great Basin.
Most models show a ridge of high pressure building northeastward into the Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday of next week, creating a northeast flow aloft. This may turn out to be our next cooling trend. There are many differences on models as to how things will play out next week, but it doesn’t appear we’ll return to widespread subfreezing conditions.
Forecast: Clear skies through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. mostly clear Saturday. increasing cloudiness Saturday night. a slight chance of showers Sunday and Sunday night, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/64/35/66 | Reedley 32/64/36/67 | Dinuba 30/64/35/66 | |
| Porterville 31/66/35/67 | Lindsay 30/64/35/67 | Delano 32/67/37/68 | |
| Bakersfield 38/68/40/69 | Taft 40/66/43/68 | Arvin 34/67/37/69 | |
| Lamont 34/67/37/69 | Pixley 31/65/35/67 | Tulare 30/64/34/66 | |
| Woodlake 31/64/35/66 | Hanford 33/64/36/67 | Orosi 30/64/34/67 | |
Winds: Winds during the afternoon and early evening will be generally at or less than 10 MPH through Thursday. Winds during the night through midmorning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: I haven’t changed my line of thinking as far as indicating Sunday and Sunday night might be our only chance at rain for the next 10 days. Even then, this will likely be a north of Fresno affair. The only question is how far to the west a weak low center will track. If it moves into the Great Basin as has been the trend recently, dry conditions will continue. If precipitation does occur, only minor amounts can be expected.
Frost Discussion: Dew points are ranging anywhere from the upper 20s to the upper 30s this afternoon. Air temperatures north of Kern County are up anywhere from 4 to 7 degrees. Still, dew points are low enough to allow a number of locations to drop into the lower 30s with a few of the traditional cold spots dipping to 28 to 29 or so. On Wednesday morning, only the coldest river bottom and similar location will brush with the lower 30s with above freezing conditions Thursday through Sunday.
For the first half of next week, the potential of at least lower 30s returning is there. High pressure will build northeastward into the Pacific Northwest with possibly a low center over northwest Mexico. That would generate a northeast flow over California, possibly pumping a somewhat colder and drier air mass into California. For now, there are too many model differences to nail things down. At this point, however, it does not appear serious.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
30 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: February 11/morning