February 13, 2020
Summary: Upper level high pressure is directly above California this morning with the downward motion of the atmosphere causing compressional heating. This is resulting in very spring like conditions for this time of year. Most locations will eclipse the 70 degree mark this afternoon. Another weak wave of low pressure aloft will move through Friday for slight cooling, only to see temperatures rebound Saturday as upper level high pressure quickly fills in again from the west.
On Sunday, a trough will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin Monday. A cooler air mass will follow as a big ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific ridges northward into Alaska and northwest Canada. This will generate a northeast flow aloft. Combine that with strong surface high pressure over the Great Basin and the result will be an off shore flow. This will likely also result in somewhat lower dew points and, with a cooler air mass overall, a return to areas of frost is likely Tuesday through Thursday mornings.
One model shows a cut off low trying to form over central California, however it’s the odd model out so a precipitation free forecast will continue for the next week to possibly ten days. We have gone through the first half of February with no precipitation and, considering January’s rainfall was about a third of average, it appears we’re sinking into another dry hole unless things turn around with another Miracle March. March is traditionally the last month of the wet season.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 72/34/68/34/70 | Reedley 72/34/68/34/69 | Dinuba 71/33/67/34/69 | |
| Porterville 72/33/67/35/69 | Lindsay 72/33/68/34/70 | Delano 73/35/67/35/70 | |
| Bakersfield 74/44/68/41/70 | Taft 73/45/69/44/69 | Arvin 73/38/68/38/70 | |
| Lamont 72/39/69/40/69 | Pixley 72/34/67/35/69 | Tulare 71/33/67/34/68 | |
| Woodlake 71/33/67/35/68 | Hanford 72/34/67/35/67 | Orosi 71/33/68/34/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 38/70 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 38/60 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 33/61 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 32/60 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 34/61 |
Two Week Outlook: February 19 through February 25: This model is now projecting above average temperatures during this time frame as upper level high pressure will be dominant. The chance of precipitation is extremely low.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Sunday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: For now, there appears to be no chance of rain for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost Discussion: Even though daytime highs are eclipsing the 70 degree mark, dew points remain low enough for the very coldest locations to dip into the lower 30s. that will be the case tonight, as well, however most locations will range from 34 to 37. Above freezing conditions will continue Saturday through Monday.
From Tuesday through Thursday of next week, a north/northeast flow will develop along the eastern periphery of high pressure off shore. It will spread a cooler air mass into central California. This is by no means a critical air mass at all, however it may lower dew points enough to allow temperatures at the coldest locations to dip down to 29 to 31 degrees with many locations in the low to mid 30s.
Later next week, upper level high pressure will modify the air mass for a return to above freezing conditions. There is no configuration on models that would suggest the invasion of an arctic air mass for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/80%
Actual Humidity range February 12, 2020: Delano, 84%/24% Porterville, 94%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .68, Parlier .61, Blackwell Corner .72, Arvin .71, Orange Cove .65, Porterville .63, Delano .67. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Blackwell 49, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 47, Delano 47
Record Temperatures: 79/24. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1575 -365
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 47.5. -1.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.53 season. or -2.99. Month to Date: .00. -.87
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.83, or -.82. Month to Date: .00 -.53
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 862, Parlier 928, Arvin 739, Shafter 826, Stratford 827, Delano 915, Lindcove 1066, Porterville 1395
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:49 Sunset: 5:38 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 68 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1500 / 69 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 69 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 72 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 68 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 72 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 60 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 70 / 46 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 5.27 61 10.35 120 8.60 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 51 8.32 107 7.74 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.69 81 8.14 115 7.05 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.90 42 6.30 90 6.97 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 54 6.65 102 6.53 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 54 5.27 90 5.83 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.83 78 3.19 87 3.65 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.16 39 4.31 143 3.01 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.99 79 9.34 123 7.58 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.61 88 10.11 135 7.47 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.79 60 9.63 120 8.04 13.95
Next report: February 13/afternoon