We’ll be out of the office tomorrow, February 20, so John can have a minor surgical procedure performed. Reports will resume Friday morning.
February 19, 2020
Summary: Today is yet another carbon copy of the past few days with most locations reporting readings in the upper 60s as of 1:00pm. Already this afternoon, changes are occurring over the eastern Pacific Ocean. A trough of low pressure will form a closed low roughly 400 miles west of San Francisco by Thursday morning. models indicate the progress of this system has slowed down. If all goes as planned, it will move inland just south of Kern County late Friday night and Saturday.
Clouds will begin to increase Friday and, as the low approaches the coast, down slope winds will begin along the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains with compressional heating also occurring down the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. Locally gusty winds are likely late Friday and Friday night over the valley portion of Kern County. These winds will begin to heat things up in the south valley Thursday and Friday as compressional heating will push readings into the mid to upper 70s both Thursday and possibly Friday, as well, depending on the arrival time and density of cloud cover.
There is a chance of light showers over the valley floor, mainly later Friday night through the day Saturday into Saturday evening. With the down slope winds ahead of this system, dew points will lower significantly so what rain does occur may evaporate before reaching the ground. Once this system makes its move inland, it will accelerate eastward quite rapidly, moving into southern Utah by early Sunday.
A large ridge of upper level high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific Ocean Monday and Tuesday with a ridge into western Canada. The flow aloft will be out of the northwest which will result in a minor cooling trend Sunday and Monday, but just as quickly as that occurs, the high will build inland with readings moving back into the upper 60s and lower 70s by mid week. Models still do not give any hope of a rain event in the medium term, so we’ll continue to forecast dry conditions through the end of February.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday. A mix of high clouds but generally clear skies Thursday night. increasing clouds Friday. A chance of light showers later Friday night through Saturday. clearing Saturday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/72/39/70 | Reedley 36/73/40/71 | Dinuba 34/72/38/70 | |
| Porterville 36/74/40/73 | Lindsay 35/73/39/71 | Delano 38/74/41/73 | |
| Bakersfield 45/76/46/74 | Taft 48/75/50/74 | Arvin 40/77/43/75 | |
| Lamont 39/76/42/74 | Pixley 37/74/41/73 | Tulare 35/71/39/71 | |
| Woodlake 36/72/39/71 | Hanford 38/74/41/71 | Orosi 35/72/39/72 | |
Winds: North of Kern County, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday. by late Friday, locally gusty east to southeast winds may begin near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. This will be mainly an easterly flow so areas near the Hwy 58 corridor may be affected along with locally gusty winds of up to 35 MPH or so near the bottom of the Grapevine. As the low moves inland Saturday, these winds will quickly die off.
Rain: Models are showing the progression of a developing low off shore slowing, but are trending towards a path just south of Kern County late Friday night through early Saturday evening. There will be a chance of light showers even over the valley floor, but mainly near the foothills with downslope wind conditions Thursday and Friday. Dew points will lower, meaning what little rain does fall, may evaporate before reaching the ground. Where rain does occur, generally less than roughly .05 can be expected. Dry weather will all too quickly return Saturday night and, barring something unforeseen, will continue for all of next week.
Frost Discussion: Above freezing conditions will continue indefinitely.
Next report: February 21/morning