March 1, 2020
Summary: The center of circulation of a cold core low is located just off the central coast this afternoon. It is lagging behind earlier projections by a few hours, but will move to a position just west of San Diego by sunrise Monday. The chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the late evening hours and the risk of isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours. Most models this afternoon indicate the cloud canopy from this storm will remain overhead, keeping most locations above freezing overnight. Where it does clear for several hours, low to mid 30s will be likely with a chance of upper 20s in unprotected river bottom and similar locations. However, with the anticipated cloud cover, most locations should be at or marginally above freezing.
The freezing level above Vandenberg has dropped all the way down to 3,700 feet, but the coldest air aloft will remain off shore. Temperatures this afternoon are running anywhere from 12 to 19 degrees colder than 24 hours ago.
The low will move through northern Baja Monday evening then into the Desert Southwest, allowing high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere to build in from the west. Rapid modification of the atmosphere will take place as early as Tuesday with temperatures already eclipsing the 70 degree mark.
A weak westerly flow aloft will prevail Tuesday through Thursday with the storm track remaining well north. The high will begin to break down Friday, allowing a cold trough of low pressure to move through Saturday. some models this afternoon have ratcheted up the chance for precipitation from this system. Medium range models for next week are still pointing towards a large low pressure system parking off the California coast. It’s projected to move inland about Wednesday or Thursday. This system just might have a pineapple connection. Models going out even farther are indicating a massive trough of low pressure will be along the west coast with periodic bouts of precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight with a chance of scattered showers until about midnight. A slight chance of isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours. Partly cloudy Monday morning. clearing Monday afternoon. Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night leading to a chance of rain Saturday. a chance of showers Saturday night. partly cloudy Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/63/34/72 | Reedley 33/64/33/72 | Dinuba 32/62/32/71 | |
| Porterville 33/63/34/72 | Lindsay 32/64/33/73 | Delano 34/64/34/73 | |
| Bakersfield 39/63/39/74 | Taft 40/62/39/75 | Arvin 38/63/34/74 | |
| Lamont 37/63/34/75 | Pixley 34/64/33/72 | Tulare 32/63/33/72 | |
| Woodlake 33/63/33/73 | Hanford 33/64/34/72 | Orosi 32/63/33/72 | |
Winds: Winds this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds later tonight will be light and variable with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Monday through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions from the night to the mid morning hours.
Rain: The chance of scattered showers will continue until roughly midnight or so. The small possibility of thunderstorms will also continue through the early evening hours. Any thunderstorms will be accompanied by brief heavy rain and…small hail! Dry weather will return late tonight and continue through at least Friday night. models are a bit more bullish on the chance for rain next Saturday as a long wave trough of low pressure moves through. The chance of showers will continue through Saturday night. interestingly enough, medium range models have been amazingly consistent in placing a large low center off the California coast about the middle of next week. There’s even some suggestion of a pineapple connection with this feature. Further down the road, models are projecting an even more significant system off the California coast about a week from Friday through the following weekend. Considering rainfall was just one-third of average in January and nonexistent in February, this would certainly be welcome.
Frost Discussion: The southeast progress of the off shore low is lagging a bit behind model projections. This means the canopy of cloud cover with this system is likely to be overhead much of the night. the best chance of clearing will be over Fresno and Madera Counties. If this turns out to be the case, most locations will remain above freezing. However, where it clears for several hours, widespread low to mid 30s would be the result with a small chance of upper 20s in river bottom and similar locations. Under ideal conditions, flatland locations would generally range from 30 to 36. Still, the fact that cloud cover is likely to remain over much of the valley certainly lessens the chance of at or below freezing temperatures. On Tuesday morning, skies will have cleared and it will be a race between rapidly warming temperatures aloft and how soon this warmer air mass mixes down to the valley floor. For now, we’ll continue to go with widespread low to mid 30s with a chance of upper 20s in the traditional cold spots.
By Wednesday morning, that modification of the atmosphere will translate into above freezing conditions with a small chance of a few low spots briefly brushing with the freezing mark. Above freezing conditions will prevail for the remainder of the week.
Another cold weather system wiwll move through Saturday. this is more of a long wave system instead of a cold low. Even so, the air mass swinging in behind the low will originate in the Gulf of Alaska. For now, mid 30s to lower 40s appears to be the threshold for next Sunday and Monday mornings.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
33 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
33 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
33 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
veniceHill
33 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
33 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: March 2/morning