March 26, 2020
Summary: Doppler radar is indicating the valley is rain free at this hour. There are scattered showers over and just off the central coast. A very cold pool of air is right over central California. Short term high resolution models are indicating that once the daytime heating process gets underway, scattered showers will break out over the mountains surrounding the valley. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible alogn the Coast Range, possibly affecting the west side of the valley. However, this activity will be running from northwest to southeast which would tend to keep the activity over the mountain areas. Even so, there is a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms through the early evening hours.
By early Friday morning, the trough will stretch from Utah southward into Arizona, temporarily ending the precipitation. Models are more uniform on the timing and strength of the next area of low pressure which will begin to affect central California as early as Saturday afternoon. The chance of showers will increase Saturday afternoon and night, mainly from Fresno County northward, with only a minimal chance of light showers in the south valley. This trough will move southeastward into Nevada and southern California by Sunday evening.
Next week will be a horse of a different color as a zone of high pressure will take shape over the eastern Pacific. It will push inland into California and into the interior west while the storm track will run pretty much west to east over the top of the high and into the Pacific Northwest. This will allow for a significant warming trend. Warmest locations by the middle of next week will push the 80 degree mark.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through Friday morning. there will be a chance of widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The highest risk will be along the I-5 corridor along the west side and along the Sierra Nevada foothills. Mostly clear Friday afternoon and night. increasing cloudiness Saturday. a chance of showers from Fresno County north Saturday afternoon through Sunday with a slight chance of showers south of Fresno County. Partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday morning. mostly clear Monday afternoon through Thursday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/34/62/39/61 | Reedley 58/35/62/39/61 | Dinuba 57/33/61/38/60 | |
| Porterville 58/35/62/39/62 | Lindsay 58/34/62/39/62 | Delano 59/37/62/40/63 | |
| Bakersfield 59/40/62/42/63 | Taft 58/40/62/40/63 | Arvin 59/38/62/41/63 | |
| Lamont 59/38/62/41/63 | Pixley 57/35/62/39/62 | Tulare 57/33/62/38/61 | |
| Woodlake 58/35/62/39/61 | Hanford 57/36/62/39/61 | Orosi 58/34/62/39/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Chance of showers 47/62 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 40/61 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 42/73 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 44/75 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 45/76 |
Two Week Outlook: March 31 through April 6: For the first time in two weeks, this model is indicating that high pressure will dominate the pattern over California. Temperatures will range near seasonal averages with drier than average conditions prevailing.
April: Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction. This particular model is even muddier than most. It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.
April, May, June Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California. This model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest today at around 5 to 12 MPH with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers. Winds Friday through Sunday will be variable to 12 MPH.
Rain Discussion: Once the daytime heating process gets revved up, scattered showers will begin to pop up in the mountains on all sides of the valley. Models are indicating quite a bit of activity will occur along the Coast Range this afternoon and evening with the possibility of isolated thunderstorms. Since the activity will move from northwest to southeast, most of the valley will remain dry. However, we can’t rule out the chance of widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the valley floor, especially from midafternoon through the early evening hours. Dry weather will return tonight, continuing through Saturday morning.
A weak trough of low pressure will move through beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing through Sunday. There’s a reasonably decent chance of light showers from Fresno County north but that chance will drop off sharply south of Fresno County. Even in Fresno and Madera Counties, rainfall amounts will probably be no more than a tenth or two. A prolonged period of dry weather will begin Sunday night and continue through all of next week.
Frost Discussion: As of 6:30 this morning, the coldest location was at an ag station near Madera with a reading of 34 degrees. Most other locations ranged in the mid 30s to the mid 40s. there is a higher risk of generally clear skies tonight and Friday morning. widespread mid to upper 30s are anticipated with the possibility of the coldest low lying region dipping into the lower 30s but only for short durations and in isolated locations. Most locations will range from 33 to 38 degrees. Moderation will begin as early as Saturday morning, but even then coldest spots will dip into the mid 30s. all locations will be above freezing next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/90%
Actual Humidity range March 25, 2020: Delano, NA, Porterville, 95%/57%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 70%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .69, Parlier .65, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .82, Orange Cove .63, Porterville .74, Delano .83. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 58, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 59, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 87/34. Average Temperatures: 69/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1969 -436
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 55.0. +0.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 5.81 or -3.59. Month to Date: 2.27 +.56
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 4.41, or -.97. Month to Date: 1.57 +.55
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:51, Sunset: 7:17 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:24
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 58 / 48 / 0.20 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 58 / 45 / 0.11 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 57 / 48 / 0.04 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 60 / 47 / 0.02 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 60 / 44 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 61 / 48 / 0.04 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 60 / 47 / 0.03 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 57 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 59 / 43 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1659 / 57 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 46 / M /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.01 7.06 60 15.09 128 11.83 14.06
MODESTO 0.04 5.66 52 11.73 108 10.82 13.11
MERCED 0.07 7.76 76 11.70 115 10.20 12.50
MADERA T 4.34 44 9.52 97 9.84 12.02
FRESNO 0.01 5.55 59 8.99 96 9.40 11.50
HANFORD 0.03 5.10 62 7.32 88 8.29 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.04 4.38 81 5.85 109 5.38 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.73 43 7.55 190 3.98 5.18
SALINAS 0.11 7.82 72 12.01 110 10.92 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.08 9.67 87 13.77 123 11.17 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.02 8.56 71 14.01 116 12.04 13.95
Next report: March 26/afternoon