November 6, 2017
Summary: Conditions are quite variable in the San Joaquin Valley this morning. Over Kern County, a swath of subtropical clouds is moving through with even a few light showers south of the Kern County mountains. Further north, there is a considerable amount of low clouds in some areas while from roughly Madera County northward skies are mostly clear. This has created a huge difference in temperatures between Kern and Madera Counties. Most locations in Kern County this morning are in the low to mid 50s while in Madera County lows are in the mid to upper 30s. Wouldn’t be surprised to hear of a low spot in the lower 30s.
The lower cloud deck will dissipate sometime this afternoon, however from Kern County south, variable mainly mid level clouds will stream over with even the slight chance of a sprinkle or two in the south valley. This batch of moisture will quickly move eastward tonight, leaving generally clear skies over most of the valley, although some lingering clouds will continue into Tuesday morning, especially in the south valley.
From tonight through Wednesday, weak high pressure will take over, creating a westerly flow aloft underneath the storm track which will continue to move into the Pacific Northwest. Models show the high buckling Wednesday night and Thursday, allowing a trough to move into northern and, to a lesser extent, central California. Each model run is weaker, though, on the chance of precipitation and currently show most of the precipitation from Fresno County north and even there the chance seems quite limited.
Another weak high will build in from the west late Thursday night and Saturday, however models continue to show another trough moving through the northern half of California early next week, possibly following the path of Thursday’s system. All in all, the chance of any measurable rain this week is pretty low.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy in Kern County today with a small chance of sprinkles, mainly south of Bakersfield. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight through Tuesday morning. Becoming mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with a small chance of light showers late Wednesday night and Thursday, mainly from Fresno County northward. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning then partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Sunday leading to a slight chance of showers, mainly from Fresno County northward, later Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/35/67/39/71 | Reedley 64/36/67/39/72 | Dinuba 63/34/67/38/70 | |
| Porterville 63/36/67/39/72 | Lindsay 64/34/67/38/72 | Delano 63/40/67/43/73 | |
| Bakersfield 62/43/69/47/73 | Arvin 62/44/69/43/74 | Taft 62/48/69/49/74 | |
| Lamont 62/43/69/44/74 | Pixley 65/37/67/41/72 | Tulare 63/36/67/39/72 | |
| Woodlake 64/36/67/40/71 | Hanford 64/35/67/39/72 | Orosi 63/36/67/40/73 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Small chance of showers 52/73 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 45/69 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 43/69 |
Sunday
Increasing clouds 42/72 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 50/70 |
Two Week Outlook: November 11 through November 17: There will be a chance of showers over northern California during this time frame, however models do show a flat zone of high pressure over central and southern California, so the chance of precipitation there is quite low. With the high generally in control, expect temperatures to warm to at least marginally above average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Wednesday with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno northward.
Rain: There is a batch of subtropical moisture moving into southern California this morning. Doppler radar is showing light showers from Santa Barbara south with even a few sprinkles over the Kern County mountains. There’s a slight risk of a few sprinkles in the extreme south valley today, otherwise dry weather will continue through Wednesday.
Models are still backing off on the possible southern limit of precipitation late Wednesday night and Thursday. For now, it appears the best forecast will be to keep a small chance of showers in the forecast from mainly Fresno County northward, but any precipitation that does occur will likely be very light.
Dry weather will return later Thursday night through Sunday with a similar system moving through Sunday night and Monday for another small chance of showers. Otherwise, it appears this week will be mostly dry with the exception of a small chance of showers Wednesday and again about a week from now.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 30s to lower 40s. Bakersfield, upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 45%/100% Bakersfield, 45%/80%
Actual Humidity November 4, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 92%/38%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 30% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 4, 2017: Stratford .56, Parlier .49, Blackwell .59, Lindcove .54, Arvin .69, Orange Cove .58, Porterville .46, Delano .NA., Madera Two .42. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 64, Blackwell 66, Lindcove, 66, Arvin, 68, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 65, Delano 64, Madera Two 65
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 59.3 +2.2
Record Temperatures: 90/33. Average Temperatures: 70/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 104, -34 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 4, 2017 Fresno: .09 season. or -.67. Month to Date: .T
Since November 4, 2017, Bakersfield: T, or -.37, Month to Date: .T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 5, Parlier, 5 Arvin, 0, Shafter, 4, Stratford, 5, Madera two, 16, Alpaugh, 4, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 3, Porterville, 7 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:28 am Sunset: 4:57 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:30
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 61 / 48 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 50 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 50 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 54 / 0.02 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 52 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1517 / 60 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 53 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 61 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.13 12 2.40 224 1.07 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.13 15 2.05 233 0.88 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 14 1.45 138 1.05 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 7 0.62 56 1.11 12.02
FRESNO 0.01 0.10 13 0.67 85 0.79 11.50
HANFORD T 0.06 8 0.65 89 0.73 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.02 0.02 5 0.24 62 0.39 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 24 0.37 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.21 28 1.69 225 0.75 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.20 25 1.39 176 0.79 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.04 5 1.28 164 0.78 13.95
Next Report: Monday, November 6/pm