November 14, 2020
Summary: Even though skies are mostly clear out there this afternoon, the overall character of the air mass has changed significantly. Temperatures are roughly the same as 24 hours ago, however dew points are up 8 to 10 degrees over yesterday at this time and are generally in the mid to upper 40s. With more moisture trapped on the valley floor, patchy to even areas of dense fog will have an easier time forming over the next few nights.
In the big picture, a flat zone of upper level high pressure extends from the off shore waters of California inland over the southern 2/3 of California then into the Great Basin while the storm track has migrated back into the Pacific Northwest. Showers are affecting only the northernmost counties of the Golden State. The center of the high will shift eastward over northern Baja and southern California Sunday through Monday then will break down Tuesday.
A trough of low pressure will extend from off the coast of the Pacific Northwest to off shore southern California by midday Tuesday. The trough will swing inland late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Models continue to indicate this will be a rather minor event, especially north of Kern County where there’s a good chance no rain will fall. Even as far north as Fresno County, the chance of measurable rain is roughly 50/50. As soon as this system moves into the interior west, upper level high pressure will build in from the west with generally a milder westerly flow aloft through next weekend.
The new two week projection is calling for another round of below average temperatures with a higher than average chance of rain between the 22 and 28.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday night with pockets of night and morning valley fog. Partly cloudy Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a slight chance of light showers from Fresno County north after midnight. A chance of light showers Wednesday, mainly north of Kern County. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Saturday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 39/65/40/68 | Reedley 40/64/41/69 | Dinuba 38/64/39/67 | |
| Porterville 38/65/40/70 | Lindsay 38/64/39/67 | Delano 40/65/41/70 | |
| Bakersfield 44/65/46/72 | Taft 47/65/48/70 | Arvin 42/66/43/71 | |
| Lamont 43/66/44/71 | Pixley 39/65/40/69 | Tulare 38/63/40/66 | |
| Woodlake 38/64/39/67 | Hanford 40/65/41/68 | Orosi 37/64/39/66 | |
Winds: Winds during the afternoon will be variable to no more than 10 MPH. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: A trough of low pressure and its associated weakening cold front will move down the valley late Tuesday night and Wednesday. this appears to be our only chance at measurable rain for the next week and even then mainly Kern County. As far north as Fresno County, at this time I put the chance of measurable rain at only 50/50. Dry weather will return later Wednesday night and continue through next weekend. There is hope in the two week model, however, as it now projects a better than even chance of rainfall between the 22 and 28.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing each night for at least the next 5 to 7 nights.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root creek
Af |
Venice hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 15/morning