January 12, 2021
Summary: Variable cloudiness continues to overrun high pressure which extends off shore from central California inland into the Great Basin. Heavy amounts of unwanted precipitation continues to drench western Washington and Oregon with periods of showers affecting roughly the northern ¼ of California. From Wednesday through Friday, that off shore high will draw much closer to the California coast and will build a ridge eastward over California and northward into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, giving them a temporary respite from the heavy rain. As pressures rise over central California, temperatures will warm up accordingly. Low to mid 60s can be expected Wednesday afternoon with mid to upper 60s Thursday and Friday, possibly to near 70 in the warmer locations in the south valley.
The high will shift a bit further west Saturday, allowing two fast moving inside sliders to move from northwest to southeast through the Pacific Northwest then into Nevada. Neither of these moisture starved systems will have much of an impact, other than a minor cooling trend.
Most years, the pattern from Wednesday through the remainder of the week would be conducive for widespread fog and partial afternoon clearing. However, the ground is simply drying out from the limited rainfall earlier this month, making it difficult for the fog to become too widespread, even with a strong warm air inversion.
A strong ridge continues to show up off the Pacific coast for much of next week. I’m still looking with great interest at a pattern from the 21 through roughly the 27. Some models are showing an extremely amplified pattern developing, as a strong high parks in the Gulf of Alaska and builds a ridge clear up into the arctic circle. Meanwhile, a cold low drops southward into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. There are several variations on this theme showing up on models. Two show a pineapple connection moving into California underneath a big low to our north. This would be the ideal pattern. If you average them all out, the bottom line is we will turn much colder with an increasing chance of at least some precipitation, especially from the 23 and beyond.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Wednesday evening. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 37/62/38/64 | Reedley 35/63/37/64 | Dinuba 34/62/37/63 | |
| Porterville 35/63/37/65 | Lindsay 34/63/36/65 | Delano 37/64/39/66 | |
| Bakersfield 41/66/44/68 | Taft 48/63/51/65 | Arvin 37/65/39/69 | |
| Lamont 37/65/38/68 | Pixley 35/64/38/65 | Tulare 35/62/37/63 | |
| Woodlake 35/63/38/65 | Hanford 36/64/38/65 | Orosi 34/63/37/64 | |
Winds: Winds through Friday will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, possibly slightly above in mainly Tulare and Kern Counties. Variable cloudiness continues to stream over the valley this afternoon. Above Lemoore is a broken layer. Fresno has a solid overcast. These higher level clouds will keep temperatures above freezing tonight and keep fog formation at a minimum. Upper level high pressure is still well off shore but will move closer to the coast Wednesday through Friday. Even though skies will become mostly clear, the building high will drive daytime highs well above average. Temperatures Thursday through the weekend will generally range between 34 and 40. Not much change next week as a blocking ridge remains, however I am studying closely the pattern for the 21 and beyond. There are quite a few differences between models, however there is one common theme and that’s the chance for at least some precipitation during this period and possibly much colder temperatures. For now, there’s nothing pointing to a damaging freeze, but as we head into the last week in January, global models are definitely changing to a colder weather pattern. We’ll keep an eye on this.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Next update: January 13/am