January 22, 2021
Summary: Temperatures at this hour are running anywhere from 7 to 15 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Bands of showers are rotating around a cold low center which is currently located over the Bay Area. Rainfall amounts thus far are generally just a few hundredths. Over the next few hours, the daytime heating process combined with a cold pool of unstable air moving overhead will trigger more showers with even a small chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two. The center of circulation will be almost right overhead this evening then will move into southern California Saturday. periods of showers will continue tonight into Saturday morning.
A brief wedge of upper level high pressure will follow the current storm for dry weather Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
The next system will stretch from British Columbia to southern California. The air mass involved with this storm is very cold with snow levels possibly falling as low as 1,500 feet from late Sunday night through Monday night. The chance of showers will increase Sunday afternoon, continuing through Monday evening.
Storm number 3 will be the strongest and wettest of this trio of storms. It will arrive Wednesday. models for the past five days have been amazingly consistent on the development and placement of this storm which will be off the Oregon/northern California coast Wednesday through Thursday. A moist track of air will sweep from northwest to southeast underneath the low, initially into northern California, sagging south later Wednesday and Thursday into central and southern California. It’s possible this storm may develop a pineapple connection working perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada.
This type of configuration results in strong rain shadows from western Fresno County through Kern County. However, lift…first along the Coast Range and then the Sierra Nevada…could cause some very heavy precipitation to develop with heavy snow in the high Sierra and heavy rain in the foothills as snow levels begin to rise. This is also conducive for significant amounts of rain on the valley floor along the east side north of Kern County.
Some models are still indicating a big trough of low pressure will stretch from the Gulf of Alaska to central California next weekend for possibly another round of precip. There are models now indicating a dry pattern will begin about a week from Wednesday.
Forecast: Periods of showers tonight lasting into Saturday morning. mostly to partly cloudy Saturday afternoon and night. showers will spread over the valley again Sunday afternoon, continuing at times through Monday night. expect snow down to 1,500 to 2,000 feet in the surrounding mountains. Mostly cloudy later Monday night through Tuesday evening. Increasing cloudiness tuesday night with gusty southeast winds developing. Rain at times Wednesday through Friday, possibly locally heavy at times along the east side north of Kern County. Expect strong gusty southeast winds Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
Short Term:
| Madera 39/53/35/54 | Reedley 40/54/35/55 | Dinuba 39/53/34/53 | |
| Porterville 40/53/35/55 | Lindsay 39/54/33/54 | Delano 41/54/35/55 | |
| Bakersfield 41/53/40/54 | Taft 43/52/42/53 | Arvin 40/53/37/54 | |
| Lamont 41/54/39/55 | Pixley 39/54/35/55 | Tulare 39/53/33/54 | |
| Woodlake 38/54/35/55 | Hanford 40/55/35/54 | Orosi 39/53/33/54 | |
Winds: winds tonight will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with gusts to near 20 MPH possible, mainly near showers. Winds Saturday morning will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, becoming variable to near 12 MPH Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Later Sunday night and Monday, winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with gusts to20 MPH possible at times. Also, the configuration developing on models still favors strong, gusty, south to southeast winds in the extreme south valley possibly as early as Tuesday night with a higher risk Wednesday. Strong, gusty winds will also be possible elsewhere, especially along the west side.
Rain: Periods of showers will continue into Saturday morning. an isolated thunderstorm or two is possible this afternoon through the early evening hours. Rainfall at most locations will range between .10 to .25 with more possible if isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms develop. A brief period of dry weather will prevail from late Saturday morning through Saturday night. showers will again spread from northwest to southeast across the valley, especially during the second half of the day Sunday with periods of showers Sunday night through Monday afternoon. Rainfall amounts from this storm could potentially be more significant, possibly upwards to .33 with locally more. Snow will also drop down to 1,500 to 2,000 feet along the Sierra Nevada, the Kern County mountains, the Coast Range and the Temblor Range. The showers will end later Monday night through Tuesday night.
Models have been amazingly consistent on the development of a powerful winter storm off the Oregon/northern California coast late Tuesday night all the way into Friday. Rainfall amounts from this storm on the valley floor will vary widely as a strong rain shadow will develop along the west side and on the Kern County portion of the Valley floor. The east side of the valley could pick up an inch or two during this time frame with possibly as much as 4 to 5 inches in the Sierra and the foothills. Yes, there is another storm behind this system, due in next weekend. The main question is how far south precipitation will spread.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight. the coldest locations Sunday morning could drop down to 29 to 32 in locations where skies clear and winds die off. However, most locations will remain in the 30s. expect above freezing conditions Monday through Wednesday mornings. It’s possible a small window of opportunity for local frost could occur Tuesday morning. the storm coming in Sunday night through Monday evening is the coldest of the winter so far. I do anticipate plenty of lingering and upslope clouds Tuesday morning to keep temperatures above freezing. From Wednesday through Friday, a warmer southwesterly flow will be in the picture along with occasional periods of rain for above freezing conditions. There is still nothing on longer range models to point to a particularly cold pattern on the horizon.
Next update: January 23/am