November 21, 2017
Summary: A winter style warm air inversion is setting up over the valley floor. The only difference is that there is not quite enough moisture available at ground level to create a full fledged fog regime. Nevertheless, areas of fog and low clouds will again form towards the center of the valley, burning off into hazy afternoon sunshine over the next couple of days.
High pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere continues to build off the northwest Mexico coastline with a ridge extending northward into northern California. Some high clouds will overrun the top of the high from time to time, but not enough to have much impact on temperatures. It’s hard to believe we’re talking about 80 plus degree weather at Thanksgiving, but that will be the case for tomorrow’s big travel day and Thanksgiving itself. Only marginal cooling will occur over the weekend as the high weakens slightly.
A cold front will try to break down the northern portion of the high Sunday night and Monday, spreading showers over the northern part of the state. A couple of this afternoon’s models show showers spreading into central California Sunday night but other models maintain a dry forecast. For now, it’s probably wise to put a small chance of showers in the forecast for early next week and just leave it at that. After Monday, the high will rebound for several days of dry weather which may take us through to the end of the month.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday night with areas of night and morning fog, mainly north of Kern County and up the center of the valley. Increasing cloudiness Sunday with a small chance of showers from mainly Fresno northward Sunday night and Monday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 45/75/47/77 | Reedley 46/76/48/78 | Dinuba 44/77/48/78 | |
| Porterville 45/79/47/79 | Lindsay 44/79/48/80 | Delano 47/80/49/80 | |
| Bakersfield 54/81/54/79 | Arvin 50/82/51/82 | Taft 55/80/54/81 | |
| Lamont 50/81/51/80 | Pixley 48/79/48/78 | Tulare 46/77/48/77 | |
| Woodlake 46/78/48/78 | Hanford 46/78/49/79 | Orosi 45/79/46/79 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: A couple models this afternoon are a bit more bullish on the chance of showers in central California Sunday night and Monday. Others are more adamant about dry conditions continuing with the rain line further north. With this much discrepancy, I believe it’s a good idea to add a small chance of showers to the forecast from mainly Fresno County northward Sunday night and Monday morning. We’ll see over the next few days if more model continuity occurs for a more definitive forecast.
Frost Information: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the next seven to ten days.
Next Report: Wednesday, November 22